00:00What do you make of this situation? I'm particularly interested in what must be going through the
00:05president's mind right now, given that it has been a prolonged period where not a lot has happened
00:11and all of a sudden things have heated up again. Yeah, we've been told for several weeks that a
00:15deal was very close, that a deal to end the conflict was very close. And then the president
00:20got quite a bit of pushback on what that deal might look like, particularly from domestic
00:25constituencies who would have accused him of essentially doing the same deal that President
00:29Obama did, which, of course, President Trump has railed against. So I think that process of trying
00:34to work out a better deal, that's essentially what's occupied the last several weeks.
00:39The challenge, of course, is that the Iranians don't seem to be giving on the things the president
00:43wants them to be giving on. And so you have this tension. The president, on the one hand,
00:47wants to end the hostility because he needs to address questions around high energy prices in
00:51the U.S., as well as, frankly, in this region, where I think the war has taken a really significant
00:56toll on the price of energy and the availability of energy. Put that against what needs to be a
01:02good end of the war, one where both the Americans and the Israelis can claim some form of victory.
01:08I think those two tensions are really what's animating some of the challenges behind actually
01:13ending this thing. You've talked about the pushback against the war. The president's facing pushback
01:18on a lot of fronts, right? It looks like it's going to be a summer of discontent in Congress
01:22with his Pentagon spending requests. He's getting pushback on immigration. We're seeing refunds
01:27now being processed for his tariff wall efforts. How much pressure is President Trump under?
01:32Because at the same time, he's also said he doesn't care about midterms. I mean, in some
01:36respects, he is a lamed up president for the rest of the state. There is political pressure
01:41that comes from Republicans, from his partisans in Congress, who will see the impact of the Iran
01:46war in terms of the outcome of the midterm elections. I think the president also is
01:51saying, you know, sort of speaking truthfully when he says he doesn't necessarily care because
01:56for he himself, the politics of this are somewhat removed from the politics of Republicans in
02:01Congress. Of course, he'd love a Republican majority in Congress. Of course, he would love
02:04to not have to deal with Democrats investigating him all day long. But I think he's come to accept
02:09the reality that he's going to have to go it alone on a lot of these things. So the pressure
02:13he's feeling, there certainly is political pressure, but it may not be as acute as many people on
02:18the outside would think because the reality is the president has always been a go it alone
02:22president. He's done executive action since day one. I would expect that to continue.
02:27And we're sort of halfway through the primary season as well. Lani, what's been your take
02:31so far of how President Trump is viewed at the moment?
02:36Well, with the Republican Party, the president continues to be the dominating force. If you look at
02:42his ability to knock off incumbents who have been opposed to him in small ways, even people like
02:50Bill Cassidy, the longtime senator from Louisiana, Tom Massey, the member of Congress from Kentucky,
02:56people who have been opposed to the president, elements of his agenda. He's managed to defeat
03:01all these people. So the president continues to be the primary force in Republican politics.
03:06How that will play itself out as we move toward the general election in November, that's a big
03:12question because the president's also dealing with an approval rating that's not nearly as high as it
03:16was when he took office back 18 months ago or so. So I think that it's going to be a
03:22challenge for
03:22Republicans. I personally think that Republicans are going to have a very difficult time holding onto
03:26the House. I do think they'll retain control of the U.S. Senate in November. But it is going to
03:31be a
03:31very challenging campaign for House Republican members in particular over these next several
03:36months. What is top of mind for the American public right now? Is it just a cost of living
03:42crisis or are we seeing also any interest on the rivalries with China, on diplomacy, on anything
03:49that's going on in the Middle East as well? Well, it's interesting. I mean, we're in a period of
03:54relative quiet in terms of the U.S.-China relationship. We did have an announcement regarding some
03:59additions to the entity list, the 1260H list a few days ago. But putting that aside, overall,
04:05it's been a period of relative tranquility. Public interest in the U.S. ahead of elections is always
04:11focused on economic issues. It has been for as long as I've been a part or involved in American
04:17politics, the pocketbook issues, how people are feeling about their personal economies. That continues
04:24to be the most significant issue for Americans as they look toward who they want to support in an
04:29election. So if we're thinking about the barometer of how Republicans are going to do in November,
04:35we need to look no farther than what is the state of the U.S. economy? How do people feel
04:39about cost
04:40of living issues? And I will tell you right now, particularly around energy, there are deep,
04:44deep concerns about how that cost of energy is impacting the political fortunes of Republicans.
04:50I wanted to go back to something you mentioned. Obviously, you're in region. You're speaking with
04:53partners and policymakers and governments. What's the feeling? Because, yes, the energy crisis has
04:59roiled so many economies. It's also the U.S. distraction in the Middle East has frayed alliances
05:06in this part of the world as well. What are you hearing and seeing? Yeah, it's a great question. I'm
05:10hearing a lot of feedback from, you know, I've been all over the region the last couple of days.
05:15Many of the friends and partners and allies of America are wondering and questioning how America
05:21views those strategic relationships, these relationships that have been so important to
05:25building the post-war order for the last several decades. And I think the answer is in America,
05:29there still is a value and appreciation for those strategic alliances, whether it's with places like
05:35here in Australia or in Japan, two of the most important linchpins of the region. But I think that
05:41the level of awareness, the level of intensity of the importance of those alliances is not as high
05:47as it was, let's say, 10 or 15 years ago. I think American public awareness has broadly turned
05:53internally. People are thinking about what's happening in America. They're thinking about
05:57what's happening within the country. And they're thinking a lot less about what's happening outside
06:00their borders, even though we have the conflict in Iran, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, all of the
06:05geopolitical issues with China. The American people are an inward-looking people right now. And I think
06:11that defines some of the issues and some of the potential fraying we see around some of these
06:17really important geopolitical and geostrategic relationships.
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