00:00It's a huge week for IPOs. Ed, the president was just asked about taking stakes in AI companies,
00:06and we'll see, I guess, SpaceX now counts as an AI company, right? In the biggest IPO in world
00:13history, start trading on Friday. Yeah, it's the thesis outlined in the prospectus, and we know,
00:18like, Sunday night through this morning, there is actually a roadshow happening,
00:21even though they kind of price the IPO early, which is unusual. And a big part of that
00:26communication from management at SpaceX and the bankers is, like, we're getting going with this
00:31orbital data center story. But, like, the state of play is very clear. This is an oversubscribed IPO.
00:38The institutional order book will close at 4 p.m. Eastern, and there are big, basically long-only
00:43asset managers that want a big chunk of it, whether they get it or not. We'll find out. It prices
00:47Thursday. It will trade Friday. You made a great point this morning on Bloomberg Open Interest,
00:52Ed, that all IPOs are oversubscribed. If they're not oversubscribed, the investment bank has done a
00:57really poor job. However, we're talking about such a massive amount of money, right? I think
01:02Reuters was saying $250 billion in orders. Yeah, it would be a 4x.
01:06Will they keep the price at 135? I mean, dude, this is tricky because, so, usually when you enter a
01:15roadshow, you have a price range and you market it. But I think our understanding, right, is that they
01:20very early said 135, the math math that it would be a valuation of 1.77 trillion, 1.8 trillion,
01:27raising
01:27$75 billion. There is every opportunity for them to put it in the bull in the market's court and get
01:34the
01:34market to talk them into doing a higher price. Like, that's how it works, right? Yeah, normally that would be
01:38the
01:38case. But it does seem like the logistics are actually easier with the fixed price, at least some of the
01:42bankers I talk to. When you say 135, to Ed's point, 1.77 trillion, you show up, you put in
01:48your order, you can kind of
01:50reallocate capital that way. There's going to be no surprise when they make the call, whether it's
01:54today or tomorrow evening, and say, actually, now it's at 145. That's our expectation. I'm going to go
01:58out on a limb and say, when Anthropic goes public, it'll be massively oversubscribed. And when OpenAI
02:03goes public, that will be massively oversubscribed. Do you want to break that story now, Bailey?
02:07You know, I can't get too far ahead of it, Matt, but no. I mean, to your point, if it's
02:11not
02:12oversubscribed, it doesn't get done. We're not even talking about the retail allocation as well,
02:15right? Like, the retail order book stays open through Thursday. No, actually, I got a notification.
02:19Fidelity, it closes at 4 p.m. It closes at 4 as well. But, like, you know, people are going
02:22to be
02:23disappointed. And, you know, the backstory is that, you know, there have been times where Elon Musk has
02:27talked about those loyal Tesla retail shareholders one day having access to SpaceX. But there's no, like,
02:33codified mechanism for that. So, yeah, it's going to be an interesting 24 hours.
02:38So, yeah, it's going to be an interesting 24 hours.
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