00:00We're hearing that a second round of US strikes are taking place in Iran at a time when
00:04this peace accord, according to President Trump, is very, very close.
00:09How has the world changed comparing now to before this world war started?
00:14Well, bear in mind, Heidi, that the world is always changing.
00:19The Cold War wasn't a neat, stable little period without its crises.
00:25I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis and other events.
00:32Today, we're in an environment that's more like the world is normally in.
00:39If you go back to the 19th century, go back to the early 20th century, we're more like that.
00:46We have a number of big powers.
00:51Because we have a lot of moving parts and we have a lot of uncertainty.
00:57And that's normally the environment in which we live.
01:02When it comes to how Australia perceives these traditional alliances, we actually heard from
01:08Prime Minister Albanese today saying that we need to take President Trump at face value.
01:13Is that the smart way to do it?
01:15Can we take a president who is known for his eccentricity and ability to kind of change
01:21his mind at any moment?
01:22Can we take that relationship at face value?
01:25I think the Prime Minister is absolutely right.
01:29I think the Australian government has managed its relationship with the US under President
01:35Trump very effectively.
01:39We don't get involved in day-to-day commentary on what President Trump says or doesn't say.
01:47And I think that's a smart way to play.
01:50Beijing has, and it's not new, we saw this during the first Trump presidency as well, right,
01:56really positioning itself as an alternative to the Western democratic liberal model.
02:02Do you think it's a viable alternative?
02:05Ultimately, I don't think it is, because ultimately it doesn't respect personal freedoms.
02:12It doesn't respect a diversity of views, a diversity of lives.
02:19Some would say that is also happening in America.
02:21Yes, but I think there are correcting mechanisms in the US, and whatever challenge they've come
02:34under in the US, you do see the possibility of governments changing.
02:41You do see a lot more tolerance of differences of views, as opposed to in China.
02:54When you take a look at the still ongoing war in the Middle East, we're into a fourth month now.
03:00Do you think the world US allies are in a worse off place, even after we reach some sort
03:06of peace agreement than before it started?
03:08A very, well, we'll have to see what the peace agreement is.
03:13Quite clearly, it's in our interest that the Straits of Hormuz are opened unconditionally.
03:20It's in our interest that Iran does not maintain a highly enriched uranium, which they could
03:32then go on to enrich further for nuclear weapons.
03:36So their nuclear program needs to be significantly curtailed.
03:40It will be important for the end of the peace process to have something in place which is better
03:47than the Biden-Iran agreement.
03:51We should never forget that whatever frustration we might have with President Trump in terms
03:59of the beginning of the war, in terms of the way it's been conducted, in terms of what
04:04he might say on a day-to-day basis, it's in our national interest.
04:09And I would argue it's in the interest of Western countries generally for the US to emerge the
04:16strategic winner.
04:18It is not in our interest for Iran to emerge the strategic winner.
04:23Iran has been defeated militarily, but you can lose militarily and still win strategically.
04:31Has the brand, the reputation of Pax Americana taken a hit?
04:37Yes, it has.
04:40But also we should bear in mind that Iran is less able to project its power across the Middle
04:51East today than what it was two years ago.
04:56Its two terrorist arms in Hamas and Hezbollah have been significantly weakened.
05:04That is a good thing.
05:06Yes, US standing has suffered.
05:10But let's see the end result before we can make a considered judgment about that.
05:16Do you worry that's come at the expense of Taiwan, of security in this part of the world?
05:21I don't.
05:26I doubt whether at this point in time China and all the US would see it in their national
05:34interests to be involved in a military conflict over Taiwan.
05:39Quite clearly, China continues to want Taiwan as part of China.
05:50They won't give up on that.
05:54However, I don't think they would see it in its own interests to pursue that through means
06:02of a military conflict at this point.
06:04I wanted to end our conversation by bringing it closer to home now.
06:08And we've seen One Nation and Pauline Hanson polling quite well in approval polls currently.
06:17Does it concern you about bringing MAGA-style politics to our shores?
06:21Obviously, she's spoken at Mar-a-Lago.
06:23She's been at the CPAC event.
06:26Does that play well here, do you think, US-style personality politics?
06:32Not particularly.
06:34I think the rise of One Nation, a lot of people have commented on that.
06:38And there's a lot of underlying elements to that, including frustration and disappointment
06:45with the current system as people see it.
06:48Obviously, the cost-of-living crisis, which we're going through at the moment, that plays
06:55into that.
06:56But as you know, Heidi, we have a very different political system to the US, and it remains
07:03to be seen whether One Nation can convert its popularity in the polls to seats in the Commonwealth
07:14Parliament.
07:14It's done so well in South Australia.
07:17We'll have to see how it goes in the Victorian election.
07:22But I think there's a fair way to play out.
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