00:00Is your copy trading signal provider actually worth following right so today we are really looking at this copy trading
00:09expected value calculator right so a 70% win rate can still lose you money believe it or not that
00:18is the biggest trap in crypto trading when you hear that because what matters the most is not win rate
00:24alone it is expected value.
00:27So EV is equal the win rate multiplied by the average win minus the loss rate multiplied by the average
00:37loss right so for example if you have trader A who wins 70% of trades but averages a 0
00:45.5% in wins and a negative 2% on losses the expected value is negative.
00:53And trader B who wins only 45% of trades but averages a positive 4% in wins and an
01:02average negative 1.5% in losses is actually positive on the expected value right.
01:10So one looks better than the other on the leaderboard and I know that's what people typically look at when
01:16they look at copy trader stats but that's not actually how you make money.
01:23Before copying any trader whether it's on Binance on Bybit, BingX, BitGit or any other platform check out the links
01:30to the platforms I like to use for copy trading.
01:33You need to check the win rate, the average win, the average loss, the maximum drawdown, the profit sharing fee,
01:41the total completed trades and also the losing streak probability and whether the track record is statistically meaningful right.
01:51So a trader with a 60% win rate over 40 trades may not have the age that you think
01:59that they do.
02:00They might just be lucky right.
02:02A trader with 300 plus trades controlled drawdown and positive expected value actually deserves a much closer look.
02:11So copy trading can work but only if the math actually works first.
02:18So that's why the smartest followers in 2026 will not chase leaderboards.
02:23They will be looking at the expected value.
02:27So what I've done is pretty much devise a expected value calculator right.
02:33So all you need to do is then paste your signals providers dated statistics right.
02:39So the tool calculates whether their age is actually real and whether they have enough trades to prove it.
02:45So you've got the stated win percentage of the win rate.
02:50You've got the average win size percentage of account, the average loss size, the trades per month, the number of
02:57trades, right?
02:58The profit sharing and copying the account size and the confidence level.
03:05All these you can actually gauge.
03:07And you've got the performance metrics outlined for you.
03:11And it's really a flexible tool.
03:14And you can also check out the platforms that were applied for the framework using Bybit, OKEx and BitGit copy
03:23traders, right?
03:24So that's really what you need to be looking at statistically confirmed age and making sure you're proceeding with the
03:32standard risk management as well.
03:35So the full guide that really breaks everything down is in the link down below.
03:41Expected value is what we're looking for when we're looking at who to follow when we're doing copy trading.
03:48Like, share and subscribe.
03:50Check out the links to the platforms you should be using to get the best fees, the best discounts, the
03:54best rebates and bonuses.
03:56And like, share and subscribe.
03:58And I'll see you guys in the next video.
04:00Peace. Enjoy using the tools.
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