00:00so what happens to markets when the world gets scared of a new outbreak most people think the
00:08answer is simple markets crash but history says something more interesting over the last hundred
00:13years pandemics have often followed the same financial pattern first there's panic then
00:20forced selling then the central bank comes to the rescue and then you see liquidity flooding into
00:27the system than assets such as stocks or real estate or gold and more recently bitcoin can reprice
00:35violently higher right this is the pandemic market playbook crash print reprice repeat and if the
00:45outbreak of fear ever returns in a serious way crypto may be the first to crash first so you guys
00:52always have to pay attention to that but bitcoin could become one of the biggest beneficiaries of
00:58the policy response that typically follows such events all right so let's go back to the spanish
01:05flu because what we've done is do research over the last hundred years of what has happened in the
01:10markets whenever there's been a major pandemic so the spanish flu hit between 1918 and 1920 it was
01:18devastating but markets that did not stay broken forever then came the flu outbreaks of the asian
01:25flu hong kong flu sars h1n1 ebola each one had a different health impact but the market pattern was
01:34surprisingly very consistent if the outbreak stayed local markets call kind of corrected pretty much and
01:41moved on and if the outbreak threatened the whole economy policy makers stepped in and covet was the
01:48clearest example of that in early 2020 stocks crashed credit markets froze bitcoin dumped like
01:56crazy ethereum dumped as well almost everything sold off because investors needed cash but the federal
02:02reserve cut rates and emergency liquidity arrived fiscal stimulus exploded and the entire asset market
02:10actually changed the direction overall and the economy was still damaged but markets started repricing
02:18that rescue so that is a key lesson right so markets do not wait for the crisis to end fully
02:24wait for the money printer right so now here's the part that crypto investors i think need to understand
02:31bitcoin is not immune to panic in the first phase of the crisis bitcoin can sell off hard and the
02:38reason
02:38is uh if it trades 24 7 it is liquid it is used as collateral traders are leveraged and when
02:45global
02:45markets panic people sell and they sell quickly right so this is exactly what happened in march 2020 bitcoin
02:52crashed along with risk assets ethereum crashed even harder altcoins were destroyed but that did not mean
02:59that the bitcoin pieces failed it meant that bitcoin was moving through a phase one of that crisis right so
03:07the
03:07liquidity black hole then phase two arrived which was the policy rescue and once money started flooding
03:14the system bitcoin's scarcity narrative became incredibly powerful that is when bitcoin went from
03:21panic asset to the macro asset rise so the important thing is that crypto today is not the same market
03:26of
03:26course uh that it was back in 2020 back then there was no spot bitcoin etfs institutional access was pretty
03:34much limited and also stable coins growing but they were not yet central to the global payments
03:40conversation and d5 was still early regulation was unclear today the rails are so much stronger bitcoin
03:46etfs gives institutions a regulated way to buy exposure and stable coins are becoming part of the global
03:52money debate and d5 lending tokenized treasuries oracle networks and layer two infrastructure are more
04:00pretty much more mature in the crypto market itself in the market structure regulation including clarity act
04:05discussions in the u.s i think could make institutional participation even kind of uh easier as it uh
04:14progresses so if a major outbreak uh fear kind of uh escalates again the first move could still
04:20be ugly bitcoin down ethereum down out coins down even harder but the second move could be much more
04:27important right because that's where the fed is more likely to cut rates liquidity will return
04:33fiscal support expands and investors will start looking for scarce digital assets crypto could reprice
04:39faster than any traditional markets you know and uh now you know to be clear at the end of the
04:45day
04:45the current uh hunter virus headlines should not be treated as the next covid public health authorities
04:52have said that the global risk is low and hunter virus does not spread like uh covid under normal
04:59circumstances so this is not a prediction that hunter virus becomes a global pandemic this is a scenario
05:06analysis and the real question is what happens if any serious outbreak fear returns to the world
05:13already dealing with a high debt fragile growth rate card expectations bitcoin etfs stable coins and
05:20institutional crypto adoption that is the macro setup with watching and if the pandemic market playbook
05:26repeats i think the sectors that are to watch are not the random meme coins the core assets would be
05:33bitcoin and ethereum uh bitcoin is the hard money asset ethereum is the settlement layer for stable coins
05:39defined tokenized finance then watch rwas tokenized treasury plays like hondo oracle infrastructure like link and
05:47pith defy lending like ave or layer 2 networks like arbor op high performance are chains like soul and sweet
05:55and they are computer related tokens like tower render or kt and you know this is obviously what is
06:02trending these days so you know in a crisis digital rails are definitely metamore so the headline is not
06:08hunter virus will pump bitcoin that is lazy the real framework is pandemics crash market first
06:15policy rescue you know comes in and then the biggest winner are the assets that absorb the new money
06:21the fastest and in 2020 that could have uh been uh really proved to be uh bitcoin and i think
06:27we might
06:27see uh something similar in their future event if that so sort of likely happens so let me know what
06:35your
06:35thoughts are check out the links in the description if you want to know where to trade and uh uh
06:40you know
06:40buy bitcoin or uh crypto currencies like share subscribe i'll see you guys next time peace
06:45you
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