00:00Are you looking for this quote-unquote bubble to burst or is that not your focus?
00:05I think it's something to look at. I think on the AI trade what I'm looking at is much more
00:10on the tokens rationing.
00:11There's anecdotes here and there that we're consuming so much tokens at this point that there's not going to be
00:16enough
00:17and the divergence and bifurcation between enterprises and retail users.
00:23But I think more importantly it's going to be hanging on the timing of the straight of almost reopening I
00:30think
00:30and also the consensual view that once a straight of almost reopens it's going to be a smooth process
00:36and we're all going to get bounds of oil.
00:38But what if, what if you're going to have this initial dip but then you're going to start doing the
00:46math.
00:46Inventories are very low and you're going to have a period where actually it's going to take time
00:52for the oil to get to you. Refineries are not going to start immediately in the Middle East
00:58and you're going to have some period of shortage which I think is not priced.
01:04So on that point then, is that the rude awakening for the equity markets?
01:09It's that acknowledgement that we may get to a point where physical crude inventories actually run out.
01:16Is that what finally derails or is it a reaction function to over exuberance more generally
01:23and a concern about frothiness and an IPO not going well?
01:26What derails the equity market? Is it the geopolitics ultimately?
01:30I think it could be a combination of factors as in like central banks reacting not the right way
01:35when we're facing a supply energy shortage shock.
01:40The fact that you could have any shortage, like for now we're looking at inventories that are dipping lower.
01:45That's saving us. The fact that China is also net importing less.
01:50U.S. dipping into SPR to net export to the rest of the world.
01:55And also there's like some demand destruction which permanent or not permanent remains to be seen.
02:00But I think the fact that at this point positioning and also hopes on economic outlook is queued one way.
02:08There's some worries on Europe I think.
02:10But when you have these talks about, oh the breadth and the equity market has been very weak.
02:16So hope for a broadening out which means, you know, like by Europe or by like sectors that have been
02:24hurt.
02:25And I think if you look at smart consensus, which what is very troubling is,
02:31if you look at sectors like retail, autos, so that have been sensitive to energy, potential energy shortage,
02:40you start to have smart consensus upgrading the earnings outlook,
02:43which is not in line with what's happening at the moment.
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