- 21 hours ago
آژانس بینالمللی انرژی به یورونیوز: برقیسازی راه نجات صنعت اروپاست
فاتح بیرول، رئیس آژانس بینالمللی انرژی، به یورونیوز گفت اتحادیه اروپا باید «عصر برق» را بپذیرد تا رقابتپذیری صنعتی خود را افزایش دهد.
لب بیشتر : http://parsi.euronews.com/2026/05/28/electrification-is-the-answer-to-save-europes-industry-the-iea-tells-euronews
مشترک شوید: یورونیوز به یازده زبان دیگر در دسترس شماست
فاتح بیرول، رئیس آژانس بینالمللی انرژی، به یورونیوز گفت اتحادیه اروپا باید «عصر برق» را بپذیرد تا رقابتپذیری صنعتی خود را افزایش دهد.
لب بیشتر : http://parsi.euronews.com/2026/05/28/electrification-is-the-answer-to-save-europes-industry-the-iea-tells-euronews
مشترک شوید: یورونیوز به یازده زبان دیگر در دسترس شماست
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00:07My guest on the Year of Conversation is Dr. Fatih Baral, head of the International Energy Agency.
00:14Dr. Baral, thank you for joining us for this wide-ranging interview. Appreciate your time.
00:18You say that the world, we are in the midst of the largest energy security crisis the world has ever
00:24seen.
00:24You also say that this is going to fundamentally reshape investment strategies when it comes to energy.
00:29And you also say there are clear parallels when it comes to the shock that we're seeing in the 1970s.
00:35How severe is it going to get?
00:37Now, I said I label this crisis as the largest energy crisis in the history.
00:45We had three energy crisis up to now, two oil crisis in 1970s, 1973 and 1979.
00:53And in 2022, after the Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Europe, we had a natural gas crisis.
01:01If I add how much oil and gas we lost in this all three crisis, it is much less than
01:09what we lost in the Middle East crisis, Iran crisis now.
01:13It is a huge problem for the global energy system, global economy, for Europe and beyond.
01:21And when you say this will trigger fundamental changes, especially you, and I want to reiterate this, you talk about
01:26energy but also energy security.
01:28What kind of changes are you envisioning?
01:29Because this shows us that the world is becoming more and more a dangerous place.
01:38And here the countries want to secure their energy supplies.
01:43And this would mean that the countries will review their energy strategies, which technologies, which fuels they are going to
01:52choose, and which countries they are going to work, from which countries they import energy, for example.
01:59And they are going to review their energy strategies.
02:02And this will have major implications for the investment and beyond.
02:05In mid-April, you made some comments, which obviously made a lot of headlines, certainly in Europe, about jet fuel.
02:11You warned that in six weeks there could be no jet fuel.
02:14That created a lot of anxiety among finance ministers and also just Europeans who thought, this summer, am I going
02:20to be able to go on vacation?
02:21Am I going to be able to pay for fuel tickets?
02:24What is the situation now?
02:26Because from the outside, it seems that a very stressed-out scenario did not fully manifest.
02:30But is it the case?
02:31So the reason I said this is very simple.
02:36Europe imports about 75% of this jet fuel from Middle East normally, and it is not finished.
02:46And when we look at our stocks, jet fuel stocks, they are diminishing.
02:51And I said, we said that if Europe cannot find new sources of imports, we are going to have major
03:00problems in terms of flying.
03:03Now, in the meantime, Europe was able to get some jet fuel from United States and from Nigeria to compensate
03:11this gap from Middle East.
03:14Which means that we are now sort of okay when we are entering the traveling season, but we are going
03:24to pay much higher for flying here or there.
03:28And, of course, that takes us to the idea that this is not necessarily a supply crisis, but a price
03:32crisis.
03:32I do want to ask you...
03:33Exactly. But also, let's not forget that many companies, after I made this announcement, many companies, the Lufthansa, the Scandinavian,
03:43the Ryanair, and all of them, KLM, they cut their flights.
03:47And they cut their flights.
03:48And just on this point, because I think this is very important, some, certainly in Brussels, believed that statements like
03:55that, they were contributing to fear-mongering.
03:58Is that something that you would go, no, this was my duty and I had to say what I said,
04:02and I stand by those comments?
04:04Our motto is very clear. No fear, no favor.
04:08We look at the data, we say, give a wake-up call to the countries, and if we didn't give
04:13this wake-up call, they wouldn't rush to get from Nigeria and the United States.
04:18And thanks to them, thanks to our wake-up call, they were able to get some jet fuel from U
04:25.S. and Nigeria, which barely now, this is the problem.
04:29So, in that sense, is the situation, the outlook now for Europe looking relatively better compared to two months ago,
04:38or is it still uncertainty?
04:39Because we're seeing the Commission just cut their forecast for growth this year.
04:42Yes. I would not say better, but less worse than before.
04:47And what does that mean this year?
04:49Until, of course, we don't know what will happen with the state of Hormuz,
04:52I very much hope that very soon we get a fully and unconditional opening of the state of Hormuz.
04:59If it doesn't happen, the problem with the jet fuel and diesel and beyond will be with us for weeks
05:07to come.
05:07And is there a timeline that you foresee?
05:10Because the Trump administration has been saying now for weeks that there is a plan.
05:14Manifestedly, the state of Hormuz is still shut.
05:16So, is there a timeline that you work with?
05:18Yes. I very much hope that the state of Hormuz is open fully and unconditionally because in the absence of
05:27the opening of the state,
05:29we will have serious problems with both the energy sector but also the agricultural sector because a lot of fertilizers
05:38go from the state.
05:40And the problem is the following. The month of July and August, we are starting the traveling season, demand goes
05:50up,
05:50and also planting season for the farmers.
05:53So, we are seeing on one hand the supply, the production of the energy and the fertilizers are going down,
06:03and at the same time the demand is going up because of the seasonal movements.
06:08The U.S. was very critical of the Europeans, certainly in the context of NATO, that they are not, quote,
06:13doing enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
06:16Is there a form of criticism on the Europeans for your part, or do you understand where they're coming from?
06:20They cannot just open this overnight, and this is a global crisis.
06:24Yeah. I mean, geopolitical situation is very fragile, and it is not a secret that there are different views between
06:32the countries,
06:33even the two sides of Atlantic, but despite that, I can tell you that one of the reasons why we
06:40are not in a worse shape today,
06:42International Energy Agency, us, on the 11th of March, I announced that we released 400 million barrels of oil.
06:50It was a historical release.
06:50Historical release, it gave a lot of comfort to the market, and we were able to get this release with
06:57the, unanimously,
06:59United States and Europe came together, together with Japan and the other countries, so it was a real success story.
07:04But at some point, the market is going to look at it and say, is this enough if the Strait
07:09of Hormuz does not reopen?
07:10But do you foresee another release will be needed this year?
07:14That release brought the prices $20 down, which is very good, very important for Europe and for everybody in the
07:22world,
07:22most of the people in the world, I should say.
07:25And it was, even though it was historic, 400 million barrels, it was only 20% of the reserves we
07:32have.
07:32Still 80% is here.
07:34If it is needed, we will be ready to release those stocks when it is decided.
07:40So this is something that you contemplate and that you believe the different members, the U.S., the Europeans,
07:46and not just, will participate if a second round is needed?
07:49So we are, of course, always monitoring the markets if there is a need or not.
07:54I am discussing with the government leaders in Europe, U.S., Japan, Korea, and the others.
08:00If there is a need, we are ready to act immediately.
08:03And you're thinking this would be by the summer if you get to Q3 and there is still no resolution?
08:08Is there a date you work with or this is just an intention?
08:11No, this is a plan.
08:13If it is in place, if there is a need, and we will decide when it is, depending on the
08:19market conditions,
08:20especially what will happen with the Strait of Hormuz.
08:24This is not necessarily a supply crisis.
08:26The oil could be pumping.
08:27The issue is, well, the Gulf countries have been attacked and you cannot get the oil out through the Strait
08:32of Hormuz.
08:32So it is a pricing issue for the Europeans.
08:34There's a lot of concern in Europe that, given the background of what happened in 2022,
08:39the EU cannot enter another bidding war.
08:42We've seen the Italian prime minister, very critical, saying oil at this level, this is really hurting the industry.
08:49What's the alternative?
08:50What can be done?
08:51In fact, as a world, we are a bit fortunate because before we entered this crisis, before the 28th of
08:58February,
08:59we had a lot of oil in the markets, a surplus of oil.
09:02And after this crisis has started, we used the surplus and we released some stocks.
09:10We are using that as well.
09:12And the stocks are coming to almost a zero line.
09:17If the stocks continue to come down so much, plus the July-August demand is going up because of the
09:23traveling season,
09:24So I would call we are entering the red zone in terms of the implications on the markets.
09:32What does it mean?
09:33It means we may well see the inflation numbers in Europe and beyond will go up.
09:40Economic growth will suffer.
09:42Europe will definitely, once again after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we already went through this difficult time.
09:49We may face again a difficult time if the situation is not better and if the problem with the hormones
09:57is not solved.
09:59And a difficult time means what?
10:01Because there is a disagreement among members of the EU that the Commission has not put forward all the measures
10:06that it could.
10:07Some member states say this is a real crisis.
10:10It's a quiet crisis because the spike in prices is not overnight, but it has stayed elevated for a long
10:15time now.
10:16What more can be done?
10:17Do you understand the frustrations of Georgia Meloni, let's say?
10:20She's been very vocal about this.
10:21I think this is all the leaders in Europe are concerned about this, I can tell you.
10:27All the European leaders, but not only Europe.
10:29I was in the UK.
10:31It's everywhere around the world.
10:33The Japanese prime minister, the Australian prime minister, but Europe is at the heart of it because we already went
10:39through this four years ago.
10:41It is the second time in a very short period of time.
10:44The European industry says they cannot deal with this again after four years.
10:47I hope not, but I am afraid we will see some difficult times in terms of our economy.
10:54The inflation numbers will go up and also our economic growth in Europe will suffer.
11:01The issue is not whether it will suffer or not, how much it is going to suffer.
11:07This is my issue.
11:08So the earlier the state of France is opened in a fully and unconditional way, the better it is for
11:15our economy.
11:16Because, of course, the world has said they will not pay any duties to the regime in Iran.
11:20The Europeans have been clear.
11:21They will not pay for passage.
11:22But I want to ask you, as you say, the question is how bad this will get.
11:26This is already triggered in a conversation that perhaps this is the moment to revisit some of the sanctions on
11:31Russia.
11:32We've seen the U.S. extend this waiver.
11:34The U.K. seems to be thinking maybe not directly, but yes, to third countries.
11:37The European Union says this is not the time to ease the pressure on the Russians.
11:42Is that a scenario that you foresee ultimately this conversation is inevitable?
11:45So we talk about the oil crisis in the 1970s.
11:51Europe was a reaction to that.
11:53Europe made a lot of good things, but also some, I think, wrong choices.
12:01For example, many European countries at that time thought to over-reliance on Middle East was a risky thing, which
12:08is true.
12:09Diagnosis is true.
12:10But as a solution, Europe pivoted to Russia.
12:14Over-reliance on Russia was a big mistake for Europe, and we paid for that during the year of 2022.
12:22And in my view, knocking on the door for Russia again would be a major mistake.
12:31We made this mistake once.
12:32Once it's a mistake, doing it a second time is not a mistake.
12:36So you're saying to knock on the door of Russia, Vladimir Putin would be not just a strategic mistake, but
12:42almost a fatal error for the Europeans?
12:44I, to be honest with you, there are many other options that Europe should look into, which are more secure
12:53in terms of the energy system and in terms of the foreign and defense policies.
12:59And there's been, of course, a commission repeating in light of that conversation of the Russian sanctions that the goal
13:05is now to accelerate the green transition and produce clean and accessible homegrown energy.
13:10The problem is there's a very clear political pushback.
13:13There's this idea that has really manifested in a part of the European public opinion that green energy is not
13:19the solution.
13:20It will not provide security, and it also comes at a cost premium.
13:23Is this the end of the green wave for the Europeans?
13:28First of all, it is green or clean, whatever you call it.
13:34Renewables will get a major, major boost from this, but not only renewables.
13:39Nuclear power will get a strong boost.
13:42Of course, both renewables and nuclear power will be the response to this.
13:48But from one day to another, we cannot replace all the oil and gas we have here with renewables and
13:57nuclear power.
13:58We should push them, but in the meantime, we should try to bring our oil and gas from countries, from
14:06regions which are not posing threat to European sovereignty, European economy,
14:13and will not use energy as a weapon in the international affairs.
14:18And that you look at the U.S., although some would argue at this point their relationship is very rocky.
14:22Also, you look at Norway and a number of other countries that you could point to.
14:26But there's, again, the question of the price differentiation.
14:29The European industry says at this point they already suffer from the scars of 2022,
14:33and they cannot compete on equal footing when it comes to China and the U.S.
14:37Do you hear this criticism, and what can be done?
14:40So, again, the mistake we made after the 1970s from over-reliance on the Middle East going to over-reliance
14:49on Russia is a huge mistake, a major mistake.
14:53And in my view, the golden rule, my golden rule number one for energy security is diversification.
14:59We have to diversify as much as possible, and this time we shouldn't have over-reliance on one single country,
15:07but at the same time we should find the countries where we can import energy securely but at affordable prices.
15:15Do you worry there's an over-reliance, and I don't want to start a diplomatic incident,
15:20but is there an over-reliance on the U.S. as a provider of energy?
15:23The criticism has been in the context of this trade deal that was assigned that the Europeans are not developing
15:28as much their internal homegrown capacities
15:30because they're committing to billions to facilities outside of the European Union.
15:34Is that the risk that you replace Russia with the United States under Trump?
15:38The U.S. is a major oil and LNG gas exporter now, and it is very normal that Europe should
15:47get oil and gas from the United States.
15:49We're not becoming overly dependent.
15:51But whoever it is, it can be U.S., it can be Norway, it can be, we should diversify it.
15:58We shouldn't put all the eggs in one basket.
16:00This is the rule number one for me for the energy security.
16:03And I have two final questions on this point.
16:05There is a debate, certainly in the European Parliament, but also at the top levels of the European Commission,
16:11about what to do with some of the laws that have been approved.
16:14They have been approved. They are the law now.
16:15But the implementation, the dates, the timeline, perhaps suspending some of those green clauses,
16:21which now have become clean. Nobody talks about green. They talk about clean now.
16:24Is that a fair case? Is this the time to say, let's just stop adding things, take a breather.
16:30This is a crisis. Let's just pause it.
16:32Yeah. In my view, this crisis is a very important time for Europe to rethink its energy strategy,
16:42long-term energy strategy, because I believe European competitiveness and European sovereignty
16:48will critically hinge on what is our energy strategy.
16:52Now, we will use oil and gas for some time to come. It is impossible to replace it.
16:57But in my view, Europe's energy future is electrification.
17:03We will not suddenly discover in France or in Germany or in Poland somewhere,
17:09huge amount of oil and gas. It would have already been discovered.
17:13But electricity, we can generate electricity from renewables, from nuclear power,
17:20maybe from natural gas, from other things, and we should electrify our economies as much as possible.
17:27We should our transportation system, as much as possible electric cars.
17:33We should our heating homes.
17:34It's not happening, Dr. Baral.
17:35It is. I think we have not yet given enough attention to this.
17:43For me, electrification is not an environmental issue, primarily.
17:47It is a sovereignty of Europe, defense of Europe, foreign police of Europe.
17:52European economy should be strong on its own feet.
17:56And if we want this, electrification is the future for me.
18:00And just as a final question, of course, this is happening in the context of a deeper debate,
18:04much back to the Mario Draghi report, in which he talks about the idea of defense, energy, the economy.
18:11Ultimately, this is a big package. You cannot look at them in silos.
18:16I wonder, however, are you disappointed, perhaps, at the pace of things in which things seem to be moving in
18:22Europe?
18:22The fact that we're still debating whether a nuclear will be part of a transition or not.
18:25Are you disappointed about the fact that the EU seems to not want to spend, perhaps, the money that Mario
18:32Draghi says will be needed?
18:34Is there still an element in which this machine is just not taken off?
18:38Yeah. I mean, there is a lot of Europe bashing around the world.
18:42I travel around the world. I go to Asia, Latin America, North America.
18:47They bash Europe?
18:48No, they bash Europe. And I think the Europeans bash Europe more than the others themselves.
18:53Now, I tell you something.
18:55Do Europeans bash themselves too much?
18:55Of course, too much. And they are a bit unfair to Europe. Europeans, but everybody else.
19:01Now, I have to tell you something. When I go around the world, if I ask the people in Asia,
19:06Latin America, North America,
19:07where would you like to live? Number one always comes to Europe.
19:11Because Europe has the values which are very important for the humans, democratic values.
19:17We have great institutions. But in terms of energy, I'm an energy man. I can't talk about energy.
19:22We didn't make the right choices all the time. We made a lot of mistakes.
19:26But now, we have to be very clear. Electrification is the future for our sovereignty, for our competitiveness.
19:33And if we make the energy decisions right, I think Europe will be very strong in terms of its economy,
19:41foreign policy, and defense.
19:43I believe it is at the heart of energies now, at the heart of European competitiveness and sovereignty of the
19:50continent.
19:51Well, Dr. Fatah Rural, thank you so much for joining us on Iran News.
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