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Clash Of The Superpowers Ameri Episode 1 Engsub
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00:04Xi Jinping and Donald Trump the leaders of the world's most powerful countries are locked in a
00:11high-stakes battle for global power and influence it's a fight that's threatened to explode since
00:19Trump first took office tore up the diplomatic rule book and smashed the consensus on free trade
00:26we lose almost 500 billion dollars a year with China and we want to know what's wrong with us
00:34we are about to help President Trump affect the biggest shift in U.S. foreign policy since the
00:40end of the Cold War now with both sides staking their claims on different parts of the world
00:46this is the story of how these two superpowers have become tangled in a struggle for economic
00:51supremacy with repercussions everywhere we have to realize there's this crisis and we have to take
00:58action to change the alternative is total defeat we'll hear from top U.S. officials and Chinese
01:06academics who give the inside track from Beijing when the president's off the handle you don't know
01:14what's going to happen as well as those caught in the middle of this dangerous standoff the message
01:21from the White House was the president of the United States wants you to choose and he wants you to
01:27choose America
01:46a few days before Donald Trump was first sworn in as president Xi Jinping headed to the Swiss Alps
01:54the leader of the world's largest communist country was there to join the business and political
02:00elites at the annual world economic forum this is first time president Xi attended so China want to
02:10make a clear point where we stand on international economic system
02:19Davos is an extraordinary environment it's jammed solid with the world's political leaders bankers financiers
02:29this year in particular was extraordinary because Trump was about to be inaugurated and many of us were quite alarmed
02:42we had never seen a politician like Trump nobody know his quality how he operates
02:50Trump was clearly turning his back on free trade and open markets the traditional American mantras that
02:59had led the free world for for decades and then enrolls president Xi in a magnificent piece of theater
03:08and delivers a speech which says essentially I am the custodian of free trade and open markets
03:40I never thought in my lifetime to see a communist leader actually to defend the free trade
03:46but remember free trade is good for China the other thing is to remind Trump that this is your system
03:54you created to benefit you and also benefit the rest of the world
03:58so you better keep it don't abandon the ship you are the captain
04:06people didn't know whether he was taking the mickey a little bit at first it was such an extraordinary counterintuitive
04:15speech for Xi to be making
04:18follow me work with me to ensure that we don't allow anyone in brackets incoming U.S. President Trump
04:26to trample down this magnificent free trading structure that has made us all so much more prosperous
04:37he saw an opportunity and he took it it was a brilliantly crafted intervention and it completely stole the show
04:46Xi was the toast of Davos
04:50Quite a journey for a man who'd become leader of the Chinese Communist Party
04:55the CCP only four years earlier
05:03he'd take an office promising to build on a booming economy and to reclaim China's centuries-old place as a
05:10leading nation of the world
05:12he called his vision the Chinese dream
05:28The Chinese dream is that China will restore its previous position
05:36It's not China will dominate or try to take over the world
05:43In the West the press call it rise of China which is a total misnomer
05:50Xi make a point saying this is a restoration not rice
05:55Please welcome the next President of the United States Mr. Donald J. Trump
06:02Now Trump was heading to the White House with his own promise to make his country great again
06:09His victory followed a campaign where he put China front and center of his foreign policy
06:15In his own unique style
06:17We can't continue to allow China to rape our country and that's what they're doing
06:24It's the greatest theft in the history of the world
06:30One of the first times I briefed President Trump was during the campaign
06:35I get about four sentences into my briefing my brilliant briefing on China
06:39And then Donald Trump with like a staccato approach starts firing questions at me
06:46What's China's GNP?
06:48What's the trade and balance between the United States and China?
06:51Is there military any good?
06:54And then I realized he cared about the balance of payments
06:59He knew about tariffs
07:01He understood the business aspect of the relationship
07:07For many decades we've made other countries rich
07:11While the wealth strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon
07:21He paid attention to a group of people
07:24What we call our Rust Belt the former manufacturing part of the United States
07:28He was the only candidate who recognized their legitimate pain
07:31And the only candidate who had a solution
07:33Which is we're going to go and renegotiate all those trade deals with China
07:38Together we will make America great again
07:43Thank you god bless you and god bless America
07:56I remember walking into the executive office building one day into the Trump presidency,
08:01and there's a big sign that lists all the meetings that are being held. And one of the titles is
08:07something like, let's talk about greater U.S.-China economic integration. This is a day into the
08:13Donald Trump administration, and he's just won an election with a significant part of his agenda
08:19being to fight off China's economic predation. And people in his bureaucracy, in his building,
08:26are having meetings about how we could do more economically with China.
08:32I was surprised by some of the assumptions that were being presented by longtime diplomats,
08:41longtime intelligence officers, and others. There was a view that really all that Beijing
08:47wanted, at the end of the day, was just to access a large American market and to prosper and thrive
08:53in a U.S.-dominated world order. I thought that those assessments were out of date, to put it mildly.
09:04In the 80s and 90s, the Chinese Communist Party had opened the country to Western markets,
09:10part of what they called socialism with Chinese characteristics.
09:16The country enjoyed unprecedented growth, which was given a huge boost in 2001,
09:22when China was welcomed into the WTO, the World Trade Organization.
09:28It defined China as a developing economy, meaning trade rules were applied more leniently,
09:34while the world's biggest companies continued to flood into the country.
09:39I was there as a reporter for Reuters news agency, all the way from the late 90s until 2005.
09:50It was a heady time. It was hard not to feel optimism that China would continue opening up,
09:59that its marketization would continue, and there was a hope the politics would begin to moderate as well.
10:09But by the time I left, I had this sinking feeling that many of those optimistic assumptions were going to
10:19be dashed.
10:22I think China entered the WTO with a really good deal.
10:27They got the benefits of participating in a global trading system,
10:31in which there were rules and norms,
10:34but it was given a special carve-out where it could pretend that it was a developing country,
10:40which I think is always tough when you're one of the world's largest consumers of Ferraris and Lamborghinis.
10:46It's entirely logical and sort of expected that Beijing would want to maintain that system.
10:56Coming into the White House, Trump's team included hawkish advisors
11:00who wanted to ensure the new president would deliver on his promise to take on China.
11:05But they knew that for all of Trump's tough talk,
11:08he had a reputation to protect as a champion of business.
11:13And he wanted to keep the CEOs on side,
11:16many of whom had moved manufacturing to China.
11:22In the White House, we had the two camps start to develop.
11:25The more globalist establishment camp
11:29and more of the kind of disruptors, populist, nationalist camp.
11:34The biggest fights were about China and trade.
11:37And that's because the reason is we had so many Wall Street guys.
11:41And look, I worked at Goldman Sachs.
11:43We had Goldman Sachs guys in there.
11:45Goldman Sachs and Wall Street is the investor relations partner for the Chinese CCP,
11:51this radical cadre that runs China.
11:55Chief amongst the Wall Street faction was Gary Cohn,
11:59the former president of Goldman Sachs
12:02and Trump's choice as his top economic advisor.
12:05As a market practitioner, I think that we can have a globalized world that works well.
12:14You want to expand your plant?
12:16Or when Mark wants to come in and build a big, massive plant?
12:20Or when Dell wants to come in and do something monstrous and special?
12:27You're going to have your approvals really fast.
12:29Thank you, sir.
12:30The question is, can we both be complementary to each other?
12:33I think the answer is yes.
12:38Whether the Hawks or the globalists would have their upper hand
12:41would be put to the test at Trump's first summit with Xi.
12:46As he got ready, the U.S. president was briefed by his national security advisor.
12:53President Trump is kind of reflexively contrarian.
12:56And because he's reflexively contrarian,
12:58if you advise President Trump and say,
13:01hey, everybody agrees, this is what you should say,
13:04he might just say the opposite to spite everybody.
13:07So what we decided is what we would emphasize with President Trump
13:11is what Xi Jinping wants him to say.
13:13And let President Trump be contrary to Xi Jinping
13:16rather than to his advisors.
13:23What we said to President Trump is how Xi Jinping uses this language that sounds nice
13:28or at least innocuous.
13:30And when the Chinese Communist Party officials say win-win,
13:32what they mean is they win twice.
13:36Xi arrived in America hoping Trump might back down from the aggressive threats of his campaign.
13:43For people in China, basically, we know every election,
13:47there's always a bashing China element somewhere.
13:50A lot of name calling, a lot of blaming.
13:53I think also the advisors that he's using at that time was very hawkish,
13:57like Steve Bannon, Matt Partinger, and all those people.
14:01But then normally when the new administration come into the White House,
14:05it becomes more, you know, pragmatic.
14:09President Xi attached great importance to the personal relationship.
14:14His personality is, he's very easygoing.
14:19He wants to make friends.
14:22And when he recognizes the other side as a friend,
14:25I think that will be very helpful for the bilateral relations.
14:31Trump had chosen to host Xi not at the White House,
14:34but at his Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago.
14:39President Trump, he fancies himself as a great negotiator.
14:43And part of that is separating the relationship
14:45from the tough issues you're negotiating.
14:48Thank you, President. Thank you.
14:50He's in the hospitality business.
14:52He had his granddaughter, was learning Chinese.
14:56I wanted to make you feel and warm.
14:58Sing a Chinese folk song.
15:05This is a great move.
15:07It's very positive.
15:09It's like a family reunion.
15:16One of the biggest parts of Mar-a-Lago
15:19was time set aside for the two heads of state
15:23to be alone one-on-one.
15:26The two spent a vast amount of time together.
15:29And the main message the president was delivering to us
15:33is that, you know, he and Xi were hitting it off.
15:38It seems they like each other.
15:41Yeah, chemistry is good.
15:44We've had a long discussion already.
15:48And so far, I have gotten nothing.
15:51Absolutely nothing.
15:53But we have developed a friendship.
15:55I can see that.
15:56You know, President Trump, he's a New Yorker.
15:59I'm a New Yorker.
16:00And New York men of that certain age,
16:03they tend to say, he's my best friend.
16:04He's a pal of mine.
16:05I don't have much fault with doing.
16:07And they were not really friends.
16:08They've just met each other.
16:09And they probably have business interests together.
16:11But it doesn't mean they're golf buddies.
16:13So when President Trump says, oh, he's my friend,
16:16I think what that meant is that President Trump met him,
16:18he understands how he's going to negotiate with him.
16:20Thank you, everybody.
16:21Thank you very much.
16:28Xi wasn't only relying on his budding relationship with Trump.
16:32He'd long been working to ensure China would be at the center of global trade,
16:37with or without America.
16:41A month after Mar-a-Lago, he played hosts to leaders from around the world
16:45to celebrate his flagship initiative,
16:50Belt and Road.
16:58Harking back to the ancient Silk Road between East and West,
17:03Belt and Road aimed to better link China with the world,
17:06financing huge infrastructure projects.
17:11One of the most ambitious schemes ever conceived.
17:15It spanned continents with over a trillion dollars spent,
17:21showcasing China's ability to deliver world-leading feats of engineering.
17:27Now Xi put on a summit befitting its scale.
17:32The Chinese do know how to put on a show.
17:35The biggest rooms you've ever seen,
17:37vast banqueting tables,
17:39you know, more flowers than they've got in Kew Gardens.
17:42To invite President Xi to the podium.
17:46President Xi decided to make a Belt and Road Summit
17:49to assure the world
17:50if the U.S. is back to the protectionism,
17:54China is still there to help and to work with everybody.
17:59Well, the road is important in the demonstrating
18:02to the American president or American government
18:07that China could have alternative
18:11if Western countries decide to block
18:14or slow down Chinese economic activities.
18:26Cutting a somewhat lonely figure at the summit
18:28was the U.S. representative Matt Pottinger.
18:32One of the things that Beijing does
18:34is to try to create the sense
18:37that the Communist Party's success is inevitable.
18:40So come jump on the bandwagon.
18:45They wanted to assemble as many world leaders as possible
18:48to essentially endorse Belt and Road.
18:54I remember speaking to President Trump
18:56explaining that Belt and Road
18:58was actually a system
19:00designed to diminish the influence of the United States.
19:05It was an extremely opaque system
19:10whereby governments would have to surrender sovereignty
19:14over critical infrastructure
19:16as collateral
19:18in case they weren't able to pay back debts.
19:22And so it was really sort of a form of loan sharking
19:25on a global scale.
19:29Pottinger's line didn't go down well
19:30with the other attendees.
19:33One of them was Kenya's president
19:35whose country had just that month
19:37opened a multi-billion dollar new railway
19:39largely financed by China.
19:44Kenya took a big loan
19:45to build the standard gauge railway
19:48and it was never going to be easy paying it.
19:51But was there a Chinese debt trap?
19:54No.
19:55African countries are caught in a debt trap
19:57but it's not of Chinese making.
19:59The predominant amount of money
20:02owed by African states
20:04is owed to Western governments
20:07and private banks.
20:09The Americans were uncomfortable
20:11with any Chinese initiative
20:12that looked as though
20:14it had a strategic dimension.
20:16And this clearly was a strategic project.
20:18It was about projecting Chinese influence,
20:21securing Chinese supply lines
20:23and securing export routes as well.
20:27The same day that Xi was hosting
20:29his guests in Beijing,
20:32Trump's new trade representative
20:33was being sworn in.
20:38Robert Lighthizer had spent years
20:40accusing China of breaking trade rules.
20:42Thank you all very much for being here.
20:44I'm very grateful for your friendship.
20:46He quickly summoned top officials
20:48to the West Wing.
20:50The senior people were there
20:52and a lot of them were in the direction
20:54of, well, we have to have dialogue,
20:56we have to tell the Chinese what we want,
20:58all these kinds of things.
21:00You know, I said, you know,
21:01I don't agree with any of this.
21:03The Chinese game plan
21:05has been dialogue, dialogue, dialogue,
21:08talk, talk, talk, talk, talk,
21:10and then don't do anything at all.
21:14Lighthizer's strategy
21:14was to tax goods coming to the U.S. from China.
21:19But his plans ripped open divisions
21:21with the Wall Street faction in the White House.
21:25I wanted tariffs on as much as we can
21:28to change the economic relationship
21:30between the United States and China,
21:32to force companies to come back to the United States
21:34or to find other places to manufacture.
21:37But there was an organized group
21:40who's against tariffs.
21:43I thought there was more question
21:45to who we were hurting
21:47and who we were helping
21:48by putting tariffs on.
21:52Lighthizer started to get to the president
21:54and say,
21:55Mr. President, your voters,
21:57the people who trusted you,
22:00expect that this is going to get done.
22:03It's not getting done,
22:04not because you don't want it to get done,
22:06it's not getting done
22:07because people on your team
22:09are deliberately obstructing your order
22:12to bring China to account
22:14for what it's done to the American people
22:16for 30 years.
22:18And the president said,
22:20I'm not going to let people delay anymore.
22:24Thank you, President.
22:25Trump gave Lighthizer the green light
22:28to launch a major investigation
22:29into China's trade practices.
22:31Thank you very much, Ambassador Lighthizer.
22:34Especially claims it was forcing U.S. companies
22:37to give up blueprints
22:38for their most valuable technology.
22:41We're going to be fulfilling
22:42another campaign promise
22:44by taking firm steps
22:45to ensure that we protect
22:47the intellectual property
22:49of American companies
22:50and very importantly,
22:52of American workers.
22:53American companies were desperate
22:55to do business in China.
22:56And the Chinese would say,
22:59you can enter the Chinese market,
23:01but you have to allow us access
23:03to your proprietary technology.
23:05Well, when American companies did that,
23:07very quickly they found
23:09that that technology
23:10belonged to their Chinese partners.
23:12And then they would go flood the market
23:15with these products
23:16at a much cheaper rate,
23:18put American businesses out of business,
23:20and dominate the global supply chains.
23:25The investigation could pave the way
23:27for wide-ranging tariffs on China.
23:32Economists believe
23:33that tariffs are going to raise prices
23:35and lead to inflation.
23:37Even if you bought the idea,
23:40what's the alternative
23:42that we teach our children Chinese
23:44and tell them to prepare
23:45for a life of servitude?
23:48We have to realize
23:49there's this crisis
23:51and we have to take action to change.
23:53And if there's some small cost
23:55associated with it,
23:57the alternative is total defeat.
23:59And that's not an option.
24:05In Beijing,
24:07Xi was showing no sign
24:08of making concessions.
24:12Although China's phenomenal growth
24:14was slowing,
24:15his ambition
24:17remained resolute.
24:28In a three-hour speech
24:30to the annual party congress,
24:33he described 5,000 years
24:35of China's great imperial past
24:38before the century
24:39of humiliation
24:40that started with the opium wars
24:42of the 19th century.
24:46Before the British came
24:48to invade the opium war,
24:51I'm talking about 1820s,
24:5330s,
24:54Chinese economy
24:55is 32.5%
24:57of global GDP.
24:59When communists took over in 1949,
25:02Chinese economy
25:03less than 2%
25:04of global GDP.
25:06That is a free fall,
25:08disaster.
25:09At the time,
25:10Xi Jinping announced
25:11the China dream,
25:12we are about 12% or 15% of GDP,
25:17which means
25:17if you compare with the 1830s,
25:19we still have a lot of room there.
25:25Three weeks later,
25:27Trump arrived in Beijing
25:28for what the Chinese were calling
25:29a state visit plus.
25:33With the threat of tariffs
25:34looming large,
25:35this was a chance for Xi
25:37to win round the U.S. president.
25:41Xi want to make it
25:43as spectacular as possible
25:45for obvious reasons.
25:49Everybody knows
25:50that Trump
25:51liked spectacle.
25:55He likes, well,
25:57being treated like a king,
25:58maybe.
26:02We talked to President Trump
26:04about the images
26:05that Xi Jinping
26:06would try to create.
26:07He would try to make it seem
26:09like the leader
26:10of the free world,
26:11President Trump,
26:12was coming to Beijing
26:13to kowtow,
26:14you know,
26:14to the emperor,
26:16you know,
26:16Xi Jinping.
26:24Picture yourself
26:25as Nero,
26:27the emperor of Rome,
26:29and you want
26:30to impress somebody,
26:31what would you do?
26:33It was everything
26:35you can imagine.
26:39Everything from music
26:41to singing
26:42to dancing.
26:47They really pulled out
26:49all the stops
26:49and
26:52it was impressive.
26:55Perhaps most extraordinary,
26:57Trump was invited
26:58to dine
26:59in the Forbidden City.
27:04Forbidden City
27:05means forbidden.
27:07Historically,
27:08this is a residence
27:09of emperor.
27:12This is an extraordinary
27:15honor.
27:16Chinese are not
27:17even allowed to go.
27:19So it's quite amazing
27:21to treat Trump
27:22that way.
27:23That's something.
27:24We're having a great time.
27:27I don't believe
27:28Putin even
27:29get that treatment.
27:31Earlier that day,
27:33Xi had even given
27:34Trump a personal tour.
27:36But not everyone
27:38was welcome.
27:40As President Trump
27:41was about to be
27:42escorted through
27:43the Forbidden City,
27:45before I understood
27:46what was happening,
27:47I was diverted
27:48before I could get
27:49into the gate.
27:52Matt Ponger is like
27:53the man who knew
27:54too much.
27:55And he really would
27:56make the Chinese
27:57leadership very
27:58uncomfortable.
27:59I mean,
28:00there's a guy
28:00who's fluent in Mandarin
28:01and knew the Chinese
28:03Communist Party
28:03so well.
28:05When we get
28:05to the Forbidden City,
28:07I'm looking around,
28:08where's Matt Ponger?
28:10He's not there.
28:10The one guy
28:11who can actually
28:12speak the language
28:13and know something
28:14about this system
28:15has somehow
28:16been kept out.
28:22The imperial setting
28:23was the perfect spot
28:25for Xi to give
28:26Trump an education
28:27on China's
28:28historic place
28:29in the world.
28:30And I guess
28:31the oldest culture
28:33they say is
28:33Egypt at 8,000.
28:35Egypt.
28:35Yes.
28:37It's a very popular
28:38Egypt.
28:38But the culture
28:40didn't stop
28:41from the history
28:41and it's傳承
28:42only in China.
28:44But the Chinese civilization
28:45is between the
28:46Chinese So
28:46this is your
28:47original form by
28:48my Jeff?
28:50Yes. This is
28:50a real
28:50one.
28:51Yes.
28:52These people
28:53are actually
28:54white hair,
28:55white hair,
28:56black hair,
28:56black hair,
28:57black hair,
28:58black hair.
28:59Red hair, yellow skin, we call ourselves the people going down Trump's track.
29:10Xi's charm offensive looked to be working,
29:12as the leaders and their team sat down in the Great Hall of the People.
29:17Our meeting last night was absolutely terrific.
29:24Our dinner was beyond that.
29:27Then Trump turned to his team.
29:30The president, after the first two or three statements,
29:34asked me to address the trade issue.
29:38I didn't have a script. I didn't know for sure that I would be called on.
29:43Lighthizer is really the trade war warrior for many, many years, so Chinese know that.
29:50His basic argument is familiar, but the way he presented it is quite, I would say, quite aggressive from a
29:59Chinese point of view.
30:01Lighthizer couched his presentation around their practices of forcing the transfer of intellectual property.
30:08So he just went through many of these practices with such clarity, I think it was arresting to Xi Jinping
30:14and the other officials there.
30:18I basically made the argument that we were the victim here.
30:22It wasn't China, and it can't continue and it won't continue.
30:26And I think that was a little befuddling, like, what's going on here?
30:35But the Chinese hosts weren't done yet.
30:39Trump had traveled to Beijing with dozens of American business leaders in tow.
30:45In front of the cameras, they signed more than $250 billion worth of deals with China.
30:55China was quite generous to really make all those things happen.
31:01It shows that China is really willing to collaborate with the U.S.
31:04Dallas, the president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Mr. Jia Baojun.
31:08That was really a big boost for President Trump, and he really had a big harvest for his first trip
31:14to China.
31:16Donald Trump wanted to show the American people that during his visit to China, he got something for, you know,
31:23America.
31:24And this was something really tangible and right in his wheelhouse.
31:30Now Trump had his chance to talk directly to the press.
31:34I don't blame China.
31:41After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of
31:50its citizens?
31:51I give China great credit.
31:55He turns to Xi Jinping and goes, for all this, I don't blame you.
31:59I blame us.
32:01But in actuality, I do blame past administrations for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit to take place and
32:11to grow.
32:12It was very Trumpian in that it was simultaneously gracious to the host, but also had a sharp edge to
32:19it.
32:19In spite of all the flattery and the rest, he was not going to back off his demands for a
32:25really significant shift in that economic relationship.
32:28When that shift did not materialize, President Trump resorted to a trade war.
32:34Here's what's on the power lunch menu.
32:36President Trump hitting China with $60 billion worth of tariffs, raising fears about a global trade war.
32:42In March 2018, Lighthizer's report was published.
32:47It says the economic harm to the U.S. of unfair trade practices on intellectual property is in the range
32:53of $50 billion.
32:54And so it plans to try to recoup some of that cost with these tariffs.
32:59Trump announced tariffs on Chinese exports, particularly those the U.S. said use stolen technology.
33:08China would respond in kind, sparking a tit-for-tat escalation that spiraled over the coming months.
33:15If they charge us, we charge them the same thing.
33:20That's the way it's got to be.
33:22Trump was smashing decades of Washington consensus on trade.
33:27Earlier that month, Gary Cohn resigned.
33:30The only thing the tariff was doing was acting as a consumption tax to the U.S. consumer that bought
33:41that good from China.
33:45I can remember talking with business leaders and investors and many folks assuring me that there's no way these tariffs
33:53could stay on more than three or four months.
33:56It's because it would be too harmful to the U.S. economy.
33:59And I can remember telling folks that I think we're actually much more in a new normal.
34:04Just because they have a business model that works really well, that the rest of the world should just stay
34:10static so that they can benefit from that, isn't a realistic perspective to have.
34:16And that's tough to hear, particularly when you're a powerful company, you've been kind of a master of the universe,
34:23but that's the reality.
34:26Trump's team now had to face officials from Beijing.
34:30The Chinese really were taken aback.
34:33They didn't think that Trump would really go ahead with the tariffs.
34:38They had a sense for a long time that it was a bluff.
34:42You know, they had signed this $250 billion worth of deals just back in November.
34:48You know, that was a serious amount of money.
34:51And they thought, you know, they had done the necessary and didn't understand why, you know, it wasn't working.
35:01As America and China braced for what could be a costly trade war, Xi put on a show of strength.
35:10Within weeks of the tariffs being announced, he donned military fatigues to preside over a massive naval parade, the largest
35:18of its kind ever conducted by the Chinese.
35:22It took place in the South China Sea, a crucial shipping corridor where China was building artificial islands to back
35:29up its claims on the area.
35:32Claims rejected by most countries, including the U.S.
35:37He says he wants a modernized military by 2035.
35:41He wants a world-class military by 2049, which means pretty much he wants to displace the United States from
35:49the Indo-Pacific.
35:51They want to defend all the waters surrounding China and manage the trade and everything passing through them.
35:58This was China interrupting and trying to change international rules and norms that we felt that we couldn't tolerate.
36:07The situation was becoming more and more dangerous as U.S. ships and aircraft continued what they called freedom of
36:15navigation exercises.
36:38Tensions were high as world leaders arrived in Argentina for the annual G-20 summit.
36:44It would be Trump and Xi's first meeting since Beijing.
36:49The U.S. president had a new national security advisor.
36:54I thought this was obviously a significant opportunity to make points about things that concerned us about China's aggressive behavior
37:05along its periphery and talk about the big strategic issues.
37:09What Trump mostly wanted to talk about, though, was trade.
37:15By now, the U.S. had ramped up tariffs to hit $250 billion worth of Chinese goods.
37:24Trump was threatening to go even higher.
37:28But Bolton feared the prospect of a trade deal with China might soften Trump's resolve.
37:37The two leaders met for dinner on the sidelines of the summit.
37:42This was the first time I had seen them together.
37:45It was unnerving to watch Xi in a very systematic, thorough way advance what were clearly his well-thought-out
37:56objectives and to watch Trump wing it.
38:01The relationship is very special, the relationship that I have with President Xi, and I think that is going to
38:08be a very primary reason why we'll probably end up getting something.
38:13Xi had come to the meeting with a headline-grabbing pitch.
38:17If the U.S. would hold off further tariffs, China would commit to buying U.S. goods and services worth
38:24over a trillion dollars.
38:27Chinese side, for example, Walmart and other successful retailers, how they're successful because of Chinese made in China.
38:37So that is what the argument they are making, saying you might end up hurting yourself.
38:45I was worried throughout the dinner that we were basically going to agree to things.
38:49And indeed, Trump did make concessions in terms of not putting tariffs in place that he had threatened.
38:55So that we could have good trade discussions with China.
39:00A truce in the trade war was agreed.
39:06But just then, news came through that had the potential to undermine any goodwill.
39:12I hear my phone ringing, I look down and it's my colleague at the Justice Department.
39:18And I don't normally get calls from the Justice Department.
39:21And he informed me that they're going to exercise an arrest warrant against the chief financial officer of Huawei as
39:29she goes through at Vancouver Airport.
39:31I immediately think about how this is going to be interpreted as a deliberate snub and a deliberate affront to
39:39the Chinese counterparts.
39:41And how this will throw a wrench into what the president is trying to achieve.
39:46And let's get back to the big story this morning, weighing on futures with big implications for the U.S.-China
39:50trade truce and relationship.
39:51Canada has arrested the CFO of Huawei, who also happens to be the daughter of the company's founder.
39:56Meng's charges were part of a sweeping set of criminal charges by the Trump administration unveiled yesterday,
40:02accusing the company of stealing trade secrets and violating sanctions.
40:06We all hear the news, we were surprised, because while we're shaking hands on the table, the U.S. is
40:13kicking us back under the table.
40:17We knew for some time before that Meng was coming, it was imperative that not leak out.
40:25John Bolton had been told that Meng's arrest was imminent just before the dinner with Xi.
40:31He decided not to inform Trump until it was made public.
40:36On the flight back to Washington, I explained what had happened in Canada and what would flow from that.
40:43He didn't really have much of a reaction to Meng's arrest when I briefed him on it.
40:49Officially, the Chinese government isn't directly linking Meng's arrest to the trade negotiations just yet.
40:56But unofficially, in the state media, this is being seen as a political decision.
41:06Trump had a Christmas dinner in the East Room for his top White House staff.
41:11And at one point, out of nowhere, he said,
41:14By the way, why did we arrest Meng, the Ivanka Trump of China?
41:20I thought maybe first I would say,
41:23You didn't tell me that Ivanka was a spy and an agent of our government.
41:27But I didn't, fortunately for me, probably.
41:30I thought the way.
41:32Telecom's giant Huawei was a shining example of Xi's vision for China to dominate technologies of the future.
41:41It had become a battleground with the Americans who placed restrictions on the company,
41:46citing fears China could use its equipment for spying.
41:51Meng's high-profile arrest only raised the tensions.
42:14With relations between the superpowers deteriorating, other countries were finding themselves caught
42:19in the crossfire, and not just over Huawei.
42:24The British Chancellor got a taste of this when he addressed that year's Belt and Road
42:29Forum.
42:31The speech lauded the scale and ambition of the project and the Chinese delivery of it,
42:38but said explicitly that if this is going to work, it's got to be very careful about
42:43the debt burdens that recipient countries are taking on.
42:48I was invited to the heads of state lunch, which was hosted by President Xi.
42:54And he just lashed into me, saying this was none of my business, and the Belt and Road
43:02was China's project, and China would run it in the way that China chose to run it.
43:07So it was quite a moment being given a finger-wagging lecture by President Xi.
43:16Returning to London, Hammond would find that the fallout wasn't over.
43:22So I get a call from the White House. I get the Deputy National Security Advisor on the
43:28phone, and he says, we'd like to talk to you about your speech.
43:33We had seen a speech that Philip Hammond had just delivered, that it appeared to be an
43:39endorsement of China's debt trap diplomacy. So it was a bit cheeky, but one of my colleagues
43:46from the State Department printed out Hammond's speech on a poster board with some of the key
43:53phrases that looked like they'd been taken straight from Beijing's propaganda highlighted.
43:59A meeting was set up, and somebody came over and arrived in my office in number 11.
44:05He laid them out in my office in Downing Street, along the wall, so that all the text of the
44:14speech
44:14was there, and I was asked by the Americans to justify the, or to explain my thinking behind
44:23the less critical parts of that speech. I'd said from the outset, the UK cannot be in a position
44:33of having to choose between the world's largest economy and the world's second largest economy,
44:38and that was what I told the Americans. The response I got was, that is exactly what the
44:45President of the United States wants you to do. He wants you to choose, and he wants you to choose
44:51America.
44:56Trump now ramped up the pressure even more. He signed an executive order preparing the ground
45:02for a total ban of Huawei equipment in U.S. systems, and the Americans set to work persuading
45:10other countries to follow suit, beginning with their closest ally.
45:17We had to start with the UK, because in many ways, the UK's position as sort of a cyber security
45:23and telecommunications power, GCHQ, is seen as sort of world-class. And that was allowing
45:30everybody else to essentially point to and say, well, GCHQ says it's okay, so why are you,
45:36America, making a big deal about this?
45:42The position of the British government was very strongly against making any significant changes
45:48to Huawei, and we met with a lot of resistance. Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer,
45:54and others were very strong on that. The message from the White House was,
46:02we want Huawei out. Get it out, and tell these Europeans that they've got to toe the line.
46:09The Chinese had made this a totemic issue, that if we cut Huawei off, there would be significant trade
46:18and other consequences. So we very much squeezed in the middle.
46:26As Trump arrived for a long promised state visit, the Brits hoped to convince the Americans that they
46:33could keep Huawei out of the most sensitive parts of their network.
46:39Our security experts essentially said, we've engineered the systems in a way that
46:43that Americans are overstating the risk. We had very deep concerns and plenty of evidence that
46:53there were back doors, there were software and hardware vulnerabilities that would make it fairly
46:59easy for data to be siphoned out of those networks. They thought they could protect
47:06telecommunications in Britain, and we simply didn't agree with that.
47:10There was this tension between our security experts. Ours were clear that we could manage any risk
47:18from Huawei. It was never in the core of our infrastructure, only in the periphery. And they
47:24didn't agree. Our main point is that this is not a technical discussion. This is a policy discussion,
47:32right? We felt that they simply did not want to re-examine the decision because changing their
47:39decision that they had made before would likely entail retaliation by Beijing.
47:45We explained to Trump how our network was configured differently from the American network,
47:51that we were very confident that what we had was a robust system, but he was not listening. In fact,
47:58most of the time when you engaged with the president, there was no sense that he was actually listening
48:04to what anybody else was saying. He was simply preparing for the next sentence that he was going to say.
48:12We said to each other that this is a foretaste of Huawei. We're going to be here a lot in
48:17the future.
48:18We're going to find plenty of issues where the Chinese are squeezing us from one side and the Americans from
48:23the other, not just the UK, but all the middle-ranking powers. The Brits stood firm on Huawei for now.
48:35It was some of Trump's aides who worried their boss might not stick to his guns.
48:42I felt that it was important to impress on Trump that if we were going to take strong measures against
48:48Huawei, this was not something to give away later. This had to be the beginning of a strong and
48:55consistent policy. Because to Trump, everything is negotiable. Everything is a bargaining chip.
49:04While Trump was in the UK, in Hong Kong, thousands joined a vigil to mark 30 years
49:11since China's deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.
49:18The vigil took place in the midst of a growing wave of protests against a new law
49:23that would make extradition to mainland China easier.
49:28Normally, every fifth anniversary of Tiananmen, the White House would put out a statement on behalf
49:33of the president. And I had given Trump a draft statement that would commemorate the 30th
49:40anniversary. And Trump said, I'm not going to put it out. And I said, but we always put it out
49:46every
49:46five years. And if you don't put it out, it will look like we're not concerned about what happened to
49:51Tiananmen or what it represents for the future of China and Hong Kong. And he said, I don't care.
49:58Trump sees international relations through the prism of his personal relations.
50:03He thought Xi would take offense if we put out a statement by the president on
50:08Tiananmen, and he wasn't going to do it. Within weeks, as the protests in Hong Kong grew,
50:16the authorities responded with brutal force.
50:25It was against this backdrop that Trump would next meet Xi at that year's G20 summit.
50:37The U.S. president was facing further calls to confront him about Hong Kong and China's wider
50:43human rights record, including the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. As he landed,
50:49he took a call from the Speaker of the House.
50:54He said, well, since you're at the G20, you're in Asia. Isn't it remarkable what's happening in Hong
51:00Kong? Millions of people are in the streets demonstrating for democracy.
51:07I'm sure G20 won't say anything about that because she is there. But I think it would be great if
51:15you
51:15could say something to him that the House and the Senate, Democrats and Republicans, have voted in
51:23favor of the Uyghurs.
51:27There's always a summit dinner at these G20 summits, and typically it's just the leader of each country
51:34and their spouse if they're there. One of my staff talked to the U.S. interpreter who was with Trump,
51:42who reported that he had a conversation with Xi Jinping and talked about the Uyghurs. And Xi
51:49defended against charges that these are essentially concentration camps. And he said the Uyghurs
51:55appreciated it. They liked it. It was a good thing to do. And Trump basically said, well, then go ahead
52:00and do it. Next day he calls me back and he said, I mentioned Muslims to President Xi, and he
52:11said they
52:11like being in those labor camps.
52:19China's record on human rights was never going to be top of Trump's agenda.
52:24Trade negotiations had ground to a halt and election year was fast approaching.
52:30A trade deal with China could be a vote winner in the manufacturing and agricultural heartlands of
52:36America. You know, we've had a excellent relationship, but we want to do something that will even it up
52:46with respect to trade. I think it's something that's actually very easy to do. Trump basically said to Xi,
52:53look, I want to win this election and I need the farmers vote and you can help me out on
52:57that.
52:57And indeed, the trade negotiation then turned into how many tons of soybeans are they going to buy
53:05next year. At that point, the trade is mostly focused on Chinese buying things,
53:14on a massive scale.
53:30Xi Jinping had great skill in flattering Trump and Trump responded as he as he often did with flattery of
53:38his own.
53:40So he took to calling Xi king. And in Osaka, it got even worse. He told him at one point,
53:49you're the greatest leader in contemporary Chinese history. And 30 seconds later, he said,
53:54you're the greatest leader in all of Chinese history. So we waited to see how Xi would respond to Trump.
54:03But he didn't call him the greatest leader in all American history. He just pocketed it and
54:07and the conversation went on.
54:19At home, Xi appeared more powerful than ever. Later that year, he took center stage as the Chinese
54:27Communist Party celebrated 70 years of rule in China. A statement of power in the face of the
54:35Hong Kong protests.
54:37Xi Jinping, Xi Jinping, The Great Defense Day and the Korean Revolution of China.
54:49Xi Jinping, The Great Defense Day and the World War in China.
54:59Unlike Trump, Xi didn't have to worry about elections.
55:05In fact, China had abolished term limits
55:08Meaning he could now remain president for life
55:14And when it came to negotiating with Trump
55:17The Chinese were increasingly confident
55:19That by playing the long game
55:21They would ultimately win out
55:24China understood Trump's way of operating
55:28As a professional wrestler
55:31Start opening Sabo
55:34It's always outrageous
55:37Frightening
55:38If you chicken out
55:40Then he will push even more
55:42If you know you have capacity to stand up
55:46He will come down
55:49While Xi was parading his military might
55:51His negotiators were putting the final touches
55:55To a trade deal with Trump
55:56It was optimistically named
55:59The Phase One Agreement
56:01Trump would sign it with China's Vice Premier
56:04To much fanfare
56:06The US agreed to ease tariffs on China
56:11In return, China pledged to buy
56:13Hundreds of billions of dollars of US goods
56:17But Trump didn't get the major concessions
56:20On China's trade practices
56:21He talked about on coming to office
56:24It's a relief from Chinese side
56:26Because we had a very
56:28We have a tension
56:31And January 2020
56:32It's less than one year ahead of the general election
56:35We believe we would have a relatively stable bilateral relations in that year
56:40And if President Trump won the election
56:43Paved the way for the second term
56:48It's important to remind yourself that
56:50It's not possible to have an agreement
56:55Between the United States and China
56:57That's going to resolve the problem
56:59Of a Marxist-Leninist country
57:01That wants to be the number one country in the world
57:03It's like you can't imagine an agreement
57:06Between the United States
57:07Or the West and Soviet Union
57:10That would have resolved the fact
57:12That they want to take over the world
57:13And we don't want them to, right?
57:15Today we take a momentous step
57:19One that has never been taken before with China
57:21But what these agreements can do
57:23Is stop movement towards a hot war
57:25Which would be a catastrophe
57:27Nobody's ever seen anything like it
57:29This is the biggest deal there is anywhere in the world by far
57:34Trump had his deal
57:37But as he talked it up
57:38The world was about to be hit by a catastrophe that few saw coming
57:43One that would bring the US and China closer than ever to a new Cold War
57:50China plague
57:51That's where it comes from
57:53They say, please don't mention China
57:55I say, why?
57:55That's where it comes from
57:57I remember President Trump telling me that
58:00If he did 100 trade deals with China
58:03It still wouldn't make up for the losses
58:07That COVID had inflicted on the United States
58:10In the next episode
58:13As a global pandemic rocks the US-China relationship
58:17The race for technological supremacy ramps up
58:22And the stakes are raised
58:24As one of America's leading figures
58:26Crosses a Chinese red line
58:28You have to understand whether it's going to Tiananmen Square
58:31Or going to Taiwan
58:33You cannot let somebody else decide
58:37Where you're going
58:39This is the closest moment of a military encounter
58:45My understanding is that 20% of the Chinese
58:47Did not sleep at that night
58:50She's going to tell us where we can go
58:51I don't think so
58:53And you can watch the next episode right now
59:00On BBC iPlayer
59:02Also there
59:03AI Confidential with Hannah Fry
59:05Extraordinary human stories from the high-tech frontier
59:09Watch now
59:10Inside a publishing scandal with a new podcast on sounds
59:14Secrets of the Salt Path
59:16Listen now
59:19I don't think so
59:20I don't think so
59:20I don't think so
59:20I don't think so
59:21I don't think so
59:21I don't think so
59:22I don't think so
59:22I don't think so
59:24I don't think so
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