00:00So, Badra, let's move with the first move first before we get to the longer term story.
00:04The move in December. Why do you believe the President Dailies beat the President Muslims?
00:10Because of the fact that you are going to start getting data when the government shutdown ends.
00:15And what you're going to see is some level of weakness.
00:18You're already seeing war notices suggesting layoffs.
00:22You're going to see perhaps some of that data from the shutdown start to creep in.
00:29GDP growth for the fourth quarter is going to be lower than anticipated.
00:34The drag is probably going to be somewhere in the order of 1.5% to 2%.
00:37So, all of that is going to be something that's going to work into the sentiment of the Fed over the near term.
00:44But over the longer run, you look at the trajectory of growth, the momentum in the second half of this year has been very strong.
00:50There's a significant amount of CapEx investment coming in for the 2026 and perhaps even 2027.
00:56A lot of fiscal stimulus in the first half of next year.
01:00There's not going to be that much of a reason next year to ease.
01:03So, there's still a case to be made that they could ease one more time in December.
01:08But beyond that, there's not much of an urgency to cut.
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