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Explore a realistic nuclear war simulation that demonstrates the potential global impact of modern nuclear conflict. This video is created for educational and visualization purposes, helping viewers understand the scale, consequences, and strategic implications of nuclear warfare scenarios.
The simulation is not based on real events and is intended strictly for informational and analytical viewing.
Watch carefully to see how global systems and regions might be affected in different escalation scenarios.
The simulation is not based on real events and is intended strictly for informational and analytical viewing.
Watch carefully to see how global systems and regions might be affected in different escalation scenarios.
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NewsTranscript
00:00A single intercontinental ballistic missile, also known as an ICBM, is being launched toward
00:05the United States to carry out a nuclear attack.
00:08Of course, if this was a full-blown nuclear war, hundreds of ICBMs and submarine-launched
00:14ballistic missiles would be launched, in which case, it's exactly what you think.
00:18Kaput.
00:19Pzzz.
00:20Game over.
00:21You simply cannot stop a raid of hundreds of ICBMs, each carrying tens of nuclear warheads.
00:28But what it takes to even intercept a single ICBM is not what you think.
00:35It can take up to 30 seconds to detect the launch of an ICBM, depending on the weather.
00:41If it's cloudy, as soon as the rocket rises above the clouds, the missile's exhaust will
00:47be detected by infrared sensors, either on the older Defense Support Program satellites
00:52or newer space-based infrared systems.
00:54Once an ICBM is detected by multiple satellites, an accurate trajectory of the booster can
01:01be calculated, but not necessarily its target.
01:05And thus, a decision has to be made by command and control.
01:09Is the missile hostile, or could it be just an exercise?
01:13The reality is that a simple test launch could be viewed as provocative and start a nuclear
01:19war.
01:20For this reason, the United States has recently cancelled a Minuteman III ICBM test because
01:26of increased tensions with Russia due to their invasion of Ukraine.
01:31But once the decision is made to fire an interceptor, there would be multiple opportunities to shoot
01:37down the ICBM, since ballistic missiles go through three phases of flight, boost phase, mid-course
01:44phase and terminal phase.
01:47Arguably, the easiest time to shoot down an ICBM is during its boost phase, but it's also
01:53ironically the least practical one.
01:56Intercepting an ICBM during the boost phase while the rocket engine is still burning is a
02:01huge advantage, because instead of intercepting a small nuclear warhead, it's much easier
02:07to hit a relatively slow hot booster that is of monstrous size.
02:12But it's the race against time that makes it impractical.
02:18A typical ICBM burns for about 250 seconds.
02:22As mentioned earlier, it can take up to 30 seconds just to detect an ICBM by satellite, and
02:28it can take up to 60 to 70 seconds to launch an interceptor missile, and that's without
02:33taking into account a decision time.
02:36This brings the total reaction time to 100 seconds after the ignition of the ICBM, leaving
02:42only 150 seconds to intercept the missile.
02:46Depending on the model, an interceptor has a burn time of about 100 seconds.
02:52Satellite and other ground-based sensors can guide the missile toward the ICBM before it can
02:57lock into the heat signature and strike the ICBM's structure and not sail harmlessly through
03:02the tenuous flame.
03:04This would be known as hit-to-kill.
03:07While older and less advanced systems would get close to the target and use proximity fuse
03:12to detonate an explosive warhead, the hit-to-kill interceptors rely on kinetic energy, that is,
03:18the interceptor's mass and speed to directly hit the target head-on and destroy it.
03:25What follows a successful strike is a shoot-look-shoot tactic, which confirms whether the missile
03:32has been destroyed before launching another interceptor.
03:35This can minimize the number of interceptors required to defeat incoming missiles.
03:39As you will find out soon, this is very important.
03:46On paper, it's relatively easy to destroy a nuclear missile during its boost phase.
03:51In practice, however, you have severe reach versus time challenges for intercepting during
03:57boost phase.
04:00The first challenge is that the command and control has little time to decide whether to
04:04fire an interceptor.
04:06If making the decision takes more than a minute, if not less, the interceptor will not reach
04:11the ICBM before its boost phase ends.
04:14To overcome this time challenge, it was proposed to use a weapon that travels at the speed of
04:20light, a powerful laser.
04:24The goal of the YAL-1 airborne laser system was to shoot down enemy ICBMs during their boost
04:30phase from a distance of 115 to 200 miles depending on the type of missile.
04:36level.
04:37However, the laser turned out not to be effective since the atmosphere diffused the laser's energy
04:42more than it was originally anticipated.
04:45The effective range of the laser turned out to be measured in tens of kilometers, which
04:50meant that the Boeing 747 on which the laser was mounted would have to be flying within enemy
04:56airspace.
04:57No ship share lock, the program was cancelled.
05:02The second challenge is range.
05:05The interceptors would have to be launched from a relatively close location to the ICBM's
05:10launch site, which would make it vulnerable to attack itself.
05:14Some say that the lower bound is 30 miles and the upper bound is 620 miles downrange.
05:21Regardless, this is a big issue.
05:24It may work in case of intercepting a rocket launched from North Korea, but not if launched
05:29from the middle of Russia or China.
05:32While the American SM-3 missile, which can be launched from either Navy ships or Aegis
05:37Ashore, has the capability to intercept ICBMs during boost phase, it is not viewed as a viable
05:43option due to the range-time problem.
05:46The American missile defense system currently does not have any practical capability to destroy
05:53ICBMs during the boost phase.
05:55There is, however, research being conducted on new technologies with a focus on unmanned
06:01aerial vehicles.
06:04The boost phase may be out for now, but destroying a nuclear missile during its mid-course phase
06:10provides the largest time interval to do so, which is about 20 minutes.
06:14Seems like a lot of time, but accomplishing this task might be more difficult than hitting
06:19a bullet with another bullet.
06:22A ballistic missile travels at a speed of above 15,000 miles per hour.
06:27That's nine times faster than the speed of an average bullet.
06:33There are two ways that Americans can intercept nuclear warheads during the mid-course phase.
06:39Using a ground-based interceptor or using a standard missile III Block II Alpha that can
06:45be launched from Aegis cruisers and destroyers.
06:47The ground-based interceptor is part of a $40 billion ground-based mid-course defense program,
06:55which is one of the layers of the American ballistic missile defense system, intended
06:59to protect the United States from intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles.
07:05A ground-based interceptor is a multi-stage solid fuel booster with an exoatmospheric kill
07:11vehicle or EKV.
07:14Exoatmospheric means outside of the atmosphere, thus the EKV is like a little spacecraft which
07:20relies on thrusters to maneuver since the fins cannot help with steering outside of the atmosphere.
07:27This is in contrast to endoatmospheric, meaning within atmosphere, where the vehicle is maneuverable
07:34through aerodynamic forces.
07:36A booster carries the EKV toward the target's predicted location in space, and when it's
07:42released, it uses guidance data transmitted from ground support and fire control system
07:47components as well as onboard sensors to close in and destroy the target.
07:54Each ground-based interceptor requires its own silo, and all 44 interceptors owned by the
08:00United States are currently located at Vanderburg Air Force Base in California and Fort Greeley
08:06in Alaska.
08:07Each interceptor costs a whopping $75 million.
08:13Aside from the ground-based interceptors, another way to destroy a ballistic missile is to utilize
08:19the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, specifically the SM-3 Block II Alpha that can rely on satellite
08:25and other sensors to track and intercept an intermediate-range ICBM.
08:31This is known as Engage on Remote.
08:34The SM-3 is a multi-stage interceptor that can be launched from VLS Mark 41 from cruisers
08:40and destroyers as well as Aegis Ashore.
08:44The interceptor delivers a kill vehicle to space where it maneuvers to intercept an incoming warhead.
08:50The biggest challenge for SM-3 interceptors is range.
08:55The launch ship has to be suitably located to intercept an ICBM.
08:59This is why SM-3s are only good at intercepting intermediate-range ICBMs, while ground-based
09:06interceptors can do both intermediate-range and intercontinental.
09:10So far, things seem more or less under control.
09:14That's until we introduce the next complication, decoys.
09:20During its mid-course phase, a typical Russian ICBM like the R-36 Satan can release what seems
09:27to be 50 nuclear warheads.
09:30But in reality, only 10 of those are actual warheads known as Multiple Independently Targetable
09:37Reentry Vehicles or MERV.
09:40The other 40 are decoys.
09:43All of a sudden, one ICBM has turned into 50 different moving targets, 10 of which need
09:49to be intercepted.
09:51The defense systems need to have a way to discriminate between decoys and lethal targets so precious
09:57interceptors are not wasted on decoys.
10:00We should also add that other debris, like nose cones, can add to the discrimination challenge.
10:08While low-resolution radars can track individual objects, they cannot discriminate between a
10:14lethal object versus a decoy.
10:17This is precisely why the United States has the sea-based X-Manned radar whose primary task
10:23is to discriminate lethal targets from decoys and then perform precision tracking of those
10:28warheads.
10:30Another similar radar, the Long Range Discrimination Radar at Clear Space Force Station in Central
10:35Alaska, can similarly discriminate lethal objects from decoys and forward their trajectory
10:41to interceptor missiles in real time.
10:44The LRDR construction and installation have been completed at a cost of $784 million, with
10:51the final touches currently being performed before the radar becomes operational in late 2022.
10:58The EKV not only relies on its own sensors to discriminate and perform target selection,
11:04it also uses data from discriminatory radars that we mentioned.
11:11Knowing all this, how many ICBMs do you think the United States can realistically intercept using
11:17its entire stock of 44 ground-based interceptors?
11:21Just to demonstrate the complexity of each ICBM having multiple warheads and decoys, consider
11:28this scenario.
11:29A single R-36 ICBM can house 10 warheads and 40 decoys.
11:34Now, assuming that the discrimination radars can correctly identify all 10 lethal warheads,
11:41you would think that the 44 ground-based interceptors can successfully neutralize at least 4 ICBMs carrying
11:4710 warheads each.
11:49But the answer is not what you think.
11:54Each ground-based interceptor only has a 56% probability of actually intercepting a single
12:01target.
12:01It would take not 2, not 3, but 4 interceptors to increase the probability of intercepting
12:08a single target to 97%, which means a single ICBM with 10 deployed warheads can easily overwhelm
12:16the United States' entire ground-based interceptors and possibly detonate on American soil.
12:22And this is exactly why the American missile defense system relies on multiple layers.
12:29A single line would only be able to destroy a fraction of incoming threats, but combining
12:34multiple lines of defense, last of which is the terminal phase, can destroy most, if not
12:40all, warheads.
12:43The terminal phase begins when a nuclear warhead re-enters the atmosphere.
12:48This phase is very short, only takes about a minute, and it's the last opportunity to
12:53intercept before the warhead reaches its target.
12:57That said, this is the least desirable time for interception, because it can occur close
13:02to the intended targets and there is also little margin for error.
13:07Keep in mind that when a nuclear warhead is intercepted, it doesn't explode.
13:11In order for a nuclear warhead to go critical, the explosive charges need to go off in a specific
13:18sequence, essential to initiate a nuclear explosion.
13:22The result of an interception would be a large spray of radioactive materials near the target
13:28area, which is not good, but is much better than a nuclear explosion.
13:34The American ballistic missile defense system can intercept warheads during the terminal phase
13:39using the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or THAAD, the US Navy SM-6 missiles launched
13:46from warships, or the US Army's Patriot Advanced Capability III missiles.
13:52But there is a catch.
13:54While viewing the missile defense agency diagram may give you the impression that the defense
13:59systems that we just mentioned can intercept nuclear ballistic missiles, the truth is that
14:04these interceptors can only hit short range, medium range, and intermediate range
14:09ballistic missiles.
14:10They cannot shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles, because those warheads re-enter
14:16the atmosphere at Mach 24+.
14:20Maybe THAAD would be able to hit it head-on, but I wouldn't bet my life on it, because THAAD's
14:25top speed is less than Mach 9, and it's designed to intercept missiles with speeds of Mach 5 to
14:318 at a maximum altitude of 93 miles.
14:34An alternative way to shoot down nuclear warheads during their terminal phase is to use endoatmospheric
14:41interceptors armed with small nuclear bombs.
14:44This is exactly the strategy that the Russian A-135 anti-ballistic missile system relies on.
14:50By exploding nuclear interceptors on the border of the atmosphere and space, the A-135 system
14:57can disable incoming warheads traveling at speeds of up to 15,600 miles per hour or Mach 20.
15:04Who would have thought of shooting down nukes with nukes?
15:09The bottom line is this.
15:11Shooting down something like an ICBM, while possible, is extremely complicated.
15:17And we haven't even mentioned maneuverable re-entry vehicles or hypersonic glide vehicles
15:22that can outmaneuver defense systems.
15:26The current goal of missile defense systems is to minimize the threat of rogue nations like
15:31North Korea from launching ICBMs toward American soil, as they are viewed as not being deterred,
15:37that is, they are not afraid of total annihilation and might strike anyway.
15:44A recent 2022 study argued that no system thus far developed has been shown to be effective
15:51against realistic ICBM threats, even from North Korea.
15:56But the Pentagon respectfully disagrees.
15:59They feel confident in their abilities and claim that external studies are based on outdated
16:05and inaccurate data due to classification restrictions.
16:09The Pentagon aims to develop a next-generation interceptor dubbed Never Fail Weapon System.
16:17I suppose we'll see about that.
16:19On a second thought, hopefully, we will never find out.
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