Warning of US Recession: Conflict in Iran Could Burden Each American by $8,000

Buzzline

An assessment from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that the United States may enter a recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked throughout the summer, leading to an estimated loss of eight thousand dollars for the average American household. This disruption in oil supply is the most significant since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo and mirrors trends that have preceded ten out of twelve recessions since World War Two.

Transcript

00:00A major new economic analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

00:03is delivering a stark warning.

00:06If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through summer,

00:09the United States could slide into a full recession,

00:13and the cost to the average American household could reach $8,000 or more.

00:18The analysis shows that sustained oil above $100 per barrel,

00:22already the current reality,

00:25forces cutbacks across the entire U.S. economy.

00:28Consumer spending drops, business investment stalls,

00:31and unemployment begins to rise within two to three-quarters of a sustained shock.

00:37The current oil crisis is already the largest supply disruption

00:41since the Arab oil embargo of 1973.

00:44Ten of the twelve post-World War II recessions

00:47were preceded immediately by oil price spikes.

00:50We are watching that pattern play out in real time.

00:53The Fed faces an impossible choice,

00:56raise interest rates to fight inflation driven by oil prices,

01:00or cut rates to prevent recession.

01:02Either path has severe consequences.

01:05The Iran war is no longer just a military story.

01:08It is an economic emergency arriving on American doorsteps.

01:12the manipular policy on Italy as a Half-S 지난

01:13The above review of the pair of theunk Ausmer

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