00:00Let's talk to Marco Forgione, the Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
00:06Marco, a very warm welcome back. Good to see you.
00:08So, Trump and Xi are to meet. It's been a while, of course, many years.
00:13How much has changed since the two presidents last met?
00:18We're living in a very different time, in a very different world,
00:22and the relationship and the power equivalence between the U.S. and China has changed dramatically over the last 10
00:31years.
00:31We're living, Jamie, really at a time where history is being made live in front of us.
00:39President Trump's tariffs, of course, ruled illegal by a court in the United States.
00:45I wonder, are tariffs any longer useful leverage in negotiations?
00:52Well, as we've seen, President Xi in China is not going to be just accepting of tariffs being imposed.
01:01They have their own levers that they're pulling, particularly around critical minerals.
01:05So, we see the landscape for this meeting and for the negotiations to be much closer
01:13with regards to how the power play, the interplay between the U.S. and China exists.
01:19And that's not to say that there aren't some really important imperatives.
01:23There aren't areas of really essential negotiation and conversation to take place.
01:27But the most important part about this summit is the two premiers getting together
01:35and being in one place and building a personal relationship.
01:39And that, I think, you get a sense of from President Trump's recent social media posts.
01:44And, Marco, how significant is that eyeball-to-eyeball diplomacy, the shake of the hand,
01:49rather than doing diplomacy on Zoom, as, of course, it has been for so many years from COVID onwards?
01:57I think both premiers much prefer that face-to-face interaction, that personal connection.
02:04Trump, because he's just an instinctive dealmaker and wants to exert a physical and intellectual force
02:10into the negotiation, and President Xi, because of the calm, determined diplomacy
02:17that he shows in his negotiations and conversations.
02:20So, we're seeing a meeting of two different styles,
02:23but both, I think, have much to win from being together and seeking a positive outcome to the summit.
02:31We talked about tariffs. Let me ask you about semiconductors,
02:35because semiconductors supply was also once a significant bargaining chip, if I can use that word.
02:42Is that still the case?
02:45Yes, it is. And, you know, China wants to have much greater access to U.S. chip technology and AI.
02:53And, at the same time, U.S. wants access to the critical minerals and rare earths that China has monopoly
03:00on the processing of.
03:02So, there is much in play here.
03:04But, to be honest, I don't think we're going to get a formal resolution to a lot of these issues.
03:09This is about creating the environment for the diplomacy to then happen,
03:15once the two leaders have forged a much closer personal relationship.
03:19So, we're not expecting huge announcements.
03:23I think we're looking for positivity from the relationship.
03:27And, I think, at the end of the day, we're going to hear maybe of greater purchases from China of
03:34U.S.,
03:35maybe more Boeing airplanes and commitments to buy more agricultural produce from the U.S.,
03:43and the U.S. giving a little bit more with regards to chips and technology.
03:48Marco, good to see you. I'm sure we'll talk again in coming weeks for the moment.
03:52Thank you, Marco Forgione, Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
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