00:00just give me your picks for tonight in 328 yeah i've got a few on the board right now um
00:06i'm i'm
00:07gonna be i'm still looking at the props there's some takedown props i'm gonna be looking at
00:10but the first fight of the night is a good fight it's a competitive fight between a grappler and
00:15a striker jose ochoa is my pick carpenter who's gonna want to grapple but ochoa they're both
00:23pretty new to the ufc they both have had kind of you know hit and miss fights so far but
00:29ochoa
00:29is a guy that if he does get taken down he will work back to his feet his striking's his
00:34striking
00:35is really good he's got he's a much better striker of the two i expect that fight to go long
00:39because
00:40i expect carpenter to get some takedowns early so ochoa he's sitting at like minus 180 right now
00:45i bet him with the over one and a half because i can see him getting taken down once or
00:49twice in
00:49the first round first round kind of just you know goes by quickly and uh plus uh plus 105
00:56five it's basically to me that's basically like the money line bet because i expect the fight to go
01:01long uh same thing with pat sabatini in his fight he's the grappler he's the guy that is the takedowns
01:09and he i do worry a little bit if he gets going early he can find that submission and and
01:15kill the
01:16under one and a half rounds but i expect that fight to go long as well he's fighting william gomez
01:20who's really good um solid just well-rounded guy so that's another one i expect to go long i expect
01:27sabatini to win but again you know sabatini sitting at like plus 165 or minus 165 right now i'd rather
01:34just throw the uh over one and a half with him to win and uh get that to plus money
01:39as well and then uh
01:41matush robeski is a dog the money line the lines come down a little bit so the price isn't as
01:46good
01:47good as is another grappler strong grappler um who's who's very well-rounded and the difference
01:55between these two is that robeski to me is more of a dog like when you talk about guys who
02:01you know
02:01would be cut out to go fight in bkfc or just you know just go be pure fighters uh robeski's
02:07that guy
02:07he can take a beating he's fought some really tough really tough guys he's on a two fight losing streak
02:12right now but i don't think his opponent's gonna be able to put enough damage on him and control him
02:18enough so i expect him to be in a bit of a war and just be the tougher of the
02:24two and at plus money
02:27i feel like he worth a shot here he's really good and then i got strickland at plus 13 and
02:32a half on
02:32spread which i like betting spreads in the ufc you don't always find good plus money but my thought
02:39going into this fight is shamayev should win but he's a massive favorite uh you know he's minus six
02:47six something right now so it's kind of tough to bet that um i my thought is if strickland can
02:53make it
02:53an ugly fight he's got he's live to win the thing but i also think he's live to win a
02:59round or two uh just
03:00to cover the plus 13 and a half uh i think if shamaya finishes him he finishes him early in
03:05the fight
03:06if he doesn't finish him early it's going to be competitive all the way down so plus 165 on the
03:12spread i mean you know strickland could lose and win a round or two and you know he we still
03:18cashed
03:18the ticket so um that's that's how i'm playing the main event so far i may throw some some takedown
03:24part uh takedown bets in for shamayev but uh as of right now i think it's going to be competitive
03:30so
03:31i kind of want to look at it from a live perspective as well
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