00:00A $10 increase in the price of an oil barrel reflects on both things,
00:06dramatically, on GDP from one side, on inflation from one side.
00:09So $10 would reflect for around 0.2% to 0.3% approximately decrease in GDP globally,
00:17and it would be mirrored on 0.2% to 0.4% increase in inflation.
00:22And this is on average.
00:23And this is as far as it goes to the price of oil changes.
00:27However, it doesn't reflect on how long the price will stay high.
00:31And this is what's critical right now here.
00:33What Dr. Youssef has been mentioning is the fact that we haven't had a consistent disruption
00:39of 10 million barrels per day for a long time, if not in history, basically.
00:44And we're not talking about one week or two weeks.
00:46We're talking about approximately three months.
00:48That's 90 days of daily disruptions of $10 billion that are being accumulated.
00:53Let's calculate it from a mathematical point of view.
00:57We're looking at almost 900 million barrels of disruptions over the past three months.
01:02Comparing it to the solution that was being provided, which is around 400 million barrels
01:08in the strategic reserves that will be released, plus the 170 million barrels that maybe are
01:13being released due to the foregone sanctions on Russia as well.
01:17It's not even close to capture the accumulation of the deficit that has been happening for
01:23the past three months.
01:24And this is only calculated as per today, which means that we have uncertainty in regards
01:30to whether the strait will be opened in the next day, in the next week, in the next month.
01:35Uncertainty from a geopolitical point of view is still viable until this day today, which
01:42makes the situation even worse gradually over time.
01:45And this will translate globally, as I've mentioned in the numbers, and even in a more
01:48significant manner.
01:49And it will translate directly on different sectors, such as aviation, such as fertilizers,
01:55and many different sectors.
01:58So on one side, yes, prices are increasing, which means that exporters might be benefiting
02:02to a certain point from these increases in prices.
02:05But at the same time, the exporting oil is decreasing dramatically.
02:10And not only exporting, as far as we're talking from a GCC point of view, but also we want
02:16to talk about the refineries that were damaged as well, that need months and maybe years to
02:22get back on track as well.
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