- 1 day ago
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00I want to talk Elon because you kind of put him for me on the radar and I just feel
00:05like it was a
00:05time when so many people questioned what he was up to. Now everybody is so excited about the SpaceX
00:11IPO. We see increasingly how he's kind of melding his universe together. Tell us about kind of that
00:18bet. And even today we have that he's building a chip factory, at least $55 billion in investment,
00:24maybe as much as almost 120. And he's doing this chip factory, SpaceX with Tesla. How are you
00:30looking at Elon right now and what his next era is? So this is why I founded ARK Invest. We
00:35knew
00:36that the seeds that were planted in the 20 years that ended in the bubble, they've been germinating
00:42for 20, 25 years and now they're flourishing. And what we're seeing is 15 different technologies
00:50evolving and they're all converging. And Elon, about six months ago, and we've been using
00:57the word convergence for a long time, he said, you know what? I think my companies are converging
01:03more than even I understood. And so we're seeing, of course, SpaceX, XAI, rumors about Tesla.
01:11And really, he believes that in the new world or to create the new world, a company has to
01:18be vertically integrated. And so that's what's happening here. He is moving into incredible
01:25vertical integration as he as he moves data centers into space.
01:32Is it all about our Bloomberg Intelligence, George Ferguson, cover space, covers defense. But he said
01:36it's all about Elon controlling the supply chain, Kathy. But I do feel like globally we're seeing
01:41countries, companies really thinking about their supply chain. Is that part of his strategy?
01:46Absolutely. Absolutely. And also, when a company is breaking new ground, literally, in this case,
01:55and really inventing something, the supply chain doesn't exist very often or not all parts of it
02:02exist. And I think also, as he's discussing, you know, where he's going and how he's going to do it,
02:10he is getting the supply chain ready. You know, he always sets the time frame, you know, much sooner
02:17than most people expect. But it's to get his employees and the supply chain focused. Because when he moves,
02:26he moves fast. You've really helped to define people's perception of Elon Musk and the company Tesla
02:33largely as one that is not about making cars, but one that's about autonomy and robotics.
02:40When you walk out the Hilton here, different than where I live in Washington, D.C.,
02:44driverless Waymo's are picking people up and driving away with them all day long.
02:48The mainstreaming of autonomous vehicles is just about here. I'd like to know if you see that actually
02:55fulfilling itself in the next year. And if this is a zero sum game, or you're going to have Uber,
03:00Waymo, Tesla, all involved. Okay, this is where vertical integration comes back into the
03:06conversation. In the robotaxi world, Tesla's vertically integrated and has created the platform
03:14upon which others will build their companies. So I credit our team. So Tasha, Daniel, Brett Winton,
03:24we have been focused on this from day one, 2014, when I founded ARK. And yes, slowly, slowly,
03:34then all at once. So vertical integration for Tesla means it will have the lowest cost structure by far.
03:42Now, it's going to use Uber's umbrella here, $3 plus per mile. But if our analysis is correct,
03:50those costs as robotaxis scale are going to drop to $0.25 per mile. Think about it. The cost of
03:59transportation is going to collapse here. And no one, Waymo's cost structure, according to our
04:06estimates in 2030, will be 50% higher than Tesla's because they're dependent on other auto manufacturers
04:16and others in the supply chain that Tesla is not. How are you thinking about the SpaceX IPO,
04:21Kathy? Do you anticipate there's so much enthusiasm going into it? Massive size,
04:26massive interest. But do you think there'll be a drop off initially after, you know, once it makes
04:31its public debut, and then ultimately kind of play out like Tesla did that eventually it goes up again?
04:38Like, how do you see the trajectory? Right. So this is only, at least what we know so far,
04:45$75 billion. There is so much demand out there we have in our venture fund. So ARK VX, SpaceX is
04:53the
04:54largest position. And because we're direct to consumer when it comes to venture, although the
05:00fund has scaled north of 850 million, investors had to look for us. And how did they find us? They
05:07were looking for SpaceX. So the demand is voracious out there. Only 75 billion. Yes, it's a big IPO. But
05:18just think about how, how SpaceX has reawakened the dream of space exploration. This has captured the
05:27imagination, not just of investors, but really everyone. So does that mean you don't think it'll
05:33fall? You think the enthusiasm will continue? Or do you think there will be some settling in?
05:37I think there'll be supply demand imbalance in the beginning. You'll see that pop. It will be volatile,
05:43I would imagine. But we hope to serve in terms of providing our research. We've already got a SpaceX
05:51model out there on our site, arc-invest.com. We have not added data centers, orbital data centers in.
06:00However, our preliminary work suggests that that part of the business could take, relative to our
06:08existing model, could take Tesla from a revenue generation point of view, orders of magnitude
06:15higher, 10, 20 times higher. I'm so glad you went there. Data centers in space, and I mentioned before
06:20we got going, it came up on a real estate panel where so many of the real estate investors, even
06:25like
06:26related companies, have switched their focus to data centers. But we brought up data centers in space.
06:30What does that mean, though, then, for all of the data center build out and money that is happening
06:35here on Earth? Does that mean a lot of that goes away? There's a little bit of a bubble? Like,
06:41how do we
06:41reconcile that? We think, and this is the important judgment call, is this hype? Is this 1999? I can tell
06:50you
06:50unequivocally, it is not. As I mentioned, the seeds were planted then. Now we're ready. And we think this
06:57technology revolution is going to dwarf the industrial revolution, by far. So I think that we'll need the
07:07orbital data centers. And of course, Elon is informed by his experience in Memphis, Tennessee, and now
07:14Mississippi. Memphis became not in my backyard. You're increasing my electricity prices, and you're
07:23ruining our land. So he's basically saying, I'm not going to have to worry about not in my backyard
07:31in space. But does it make a bubble of the stuff on there? I don't think so. I don't think
07:35so. We
07:35think we're going, we need all of this. Yep. Sorry, I know I'm dominating. I didn't mean to. I mean,
07:41you guys should walk away with this. I wanted to ask you about something that took place today.
07:46You woke up and saw your third largest holding just go through the roof in AMD, another blow the
07:52doors off quarter. And it's really creating this question now about whether we should be paying a
07:57lot more attention. The market is to CPUs after GPUs went crazy. We're looking at people take money out
08:04of NVIDIA now and chase stocks like AMD. Do we need both? Or is that where you're looking?
08:09We think we need both. I do think there is more competition. We want it. We need it. But it
08:17was
08:17interesting. Sarah Fryer at OpenAI, I'm going to give her a shout out because I heard her speak and
08:23she was saying, you know, people are chasing GPUs. They're going to be really shocked at how
08:30agentic AI activates CPUs and inference generally activate CPUs. Yesterday, Lisa Su provided a stat
08:40we had never heard before. Right now for every CPU, there are four to five GPUs when it comes to
08:51enabling AI. Lisa thinks it's going to go one to one in the future. I think that has been the
08:58sleeper.
08:58And you see Intel has taken off. In fact, we're seeing a lot of stocks that were, you know, they
09:04were very big in the bubble. And I just said to our team today, I said, what's going on? We're
09:09going
09:09back to the future. You know, Intel resurrecting. Isn't that right? Yes. And Flextronics is now called
09:15Flex. Boom. So I think we need it all. Not to mention data storage, which has been one of the
09:23most
09:23remarkable examples of a shortage creating a monster rally. So you need these old fashioned
09:30chips to get to this new fashion AI. All hands on deck. We want to ask you about a story
09:35that came
09:36out. Google, Microsoft to give U.S. agency early access to AI models. So basically the White House
09:41is vetting AI models. Is this good or bad? And knowing this administration and David Sachs,
09:48our AIs are, I don't think we're talking about heavy regulation here. We might be talking more
09:55about national security, national security. We've heard this with mythos, you know, software that,
10:02you know, has not, has been a place for 60 years and never been penetrated. AI can find these
10:10vulnerabilities. So they're probably trying to tighten up a lot of what we do out there and make
10:17sure that our industries are safe. Doesn't that bring a political implication though, to what may
10:21or may not be available to people? If, if the White House is choosing which platform we ought to use?
10:26No, you know, it's interesting. And this is taking a leaf from open AI in its early days,
10:32chat GPT are saying, we don't think we can release this. This is too powerful. This is great marketing.
10:38It's true that it's very powerful, but it's also great marketing. A lot of the people at Anthropic
10:45came from open AI. So while they're blazing trails, no question about it. And they're leapfrogging one
10:53another, which is great. Competition is great for us here, including competition from China. Um, uh,
10:59I think, uh, I think that, uh, you know, we're, we're on our way. I want to ask you about
11:06stable
11:06coins, um, tether and, and their potential. Do you think it has a chance to become big in the U
11:12S
11:12under the genius act? And you've also invested in circle. Are you looking at other stable coin related
11:16players beyond that crypto bill? Tell me there's a lot going on right now. There is a lot going on.
11:22There was a big meeting at Moro Lagos. Like I know a lot of crypto folks like tell us.
11:25Well, and you know, in the, uh, last election, I do think the crypto community was very, um,
11:33was part of the swing factor because they knew deregulation would take place under this
11:39administration. That's absolutely true. So yes, uh, uh, we're seeing the deregulation. Um,
11:45you know, this is, this is creating, uh, a new financial world order. Many people think,
11:52uh, the dollar should be going down, uh, because of our deficit and debt and all of that.
11:57And what we're seeing here in the United States is deregulation tax cuts, uh, and a very business
12:05friendly, very business friendly, uh, administration. We think the return on invested capital is going to
12:10go up in the U S generally. Uh, and we think that the crypto revolution, we were at risk of
12:16losing it.
12:17Yeah. Uh, and yes, we do think USAT has a shot. You do. Yes.
12:22Yeah. Uh, and yes.
12:22Uh,
Comments