- 8 hours ago
Mohamed Salah has to go down as arguably the greatest Premier League player of all time. But even with that arguement, he's still human and still susceptible to the same period of decline as any other player. But what has happened to the Liverpool forward this season? Why has he been so poor? And what do the stats show? Today, Matt returns to the studio to break down excatly how the world's best winger finally fell off.
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00:00Mohamed Salah is arguably the greatest winger the Premier League has ever seen and the numbers don't lie.
00:05Almost 200 Premier League goals, three PFA Player of the Year awards and their trophies to match.
00:10But this season the Egyptian king has looked, well, human.
00:14But why now? Is he actually falling off or are we just witnessing the inevitable ageing of an elite athlete?
00:20This is the Mo Salah paradox where we'll look at the brutal data behind his decline,
00:25how Liverpool have failed to plan for it and why knowing when to sell a player is one of the
00:30toughest decisions in the game.
00:36Firstly, let's look at these numbers.
00:38In his peak, Salah was averaging nearly 10 touches in the box per game.
00:42This season it's dropped to 6.2.
00:44His top speed has also dipped below the 34km per hour mark for the first time.
00:49He's still elite, but he's no longer frightening.
00:52Now, is this normal?
00:54Well, absolutely.
00:55At 33, most muscle fibres begin to betray you whether you're an athlete or not.
00:59Trust me on that one.
01:00And keeping blistering pace beyond that age would be freakish for any athlete.
01:05The fact that Salah stayed at the summit until 33 is the anomaly here
01:08because most wingers are done at the elite level by 31.
01:13That's not to say their careers are done, but what makes them so effective?
01:16Their speed, acceleration and change of direction is on the decline.
01:20Look at Chungmin Sun, for example.
01:21Last year, age 32, we saw a similar dip in his performance at Spurs.
01:25The statistical output stayed respectable, but his influence on the game changed.
01:30He just wasn't the same.
01:32Sadio Mane's short-lived career at Bayern Munich proved he had dropped off in his final
01:36Liverpool season, age 30, whilst Aiden Hazard never even really got going at Real Madrid.
01:41That after moving age 28 in 2019.
01:45If you combine this with Salah's decreasing numbers in successful dribbles and distance
01:50in progressive carries, you begin to get a slightly clearer picture that due to his physical
01:56decline, he isn't taking players on as much, isn't getting into as many dangerous positions
02:01and isn't having the same impact on a game.
02:05The fall-off, therefore, isn't a lack of skill per se, but a physical one that then puts this
02:10technical ability under more scrutiny.
02:12For example, I wouldn't associate Mo Salah with crossing the ball.
02:15I know he can, but that's not what comes to mind when you think of the key characteristics
02:19that have made him so great over the years.
02:21Now, all of a sudden, you get a stat like this, showing that he is crossing the ball
02:25almost five times per 90 minutes this season.
02:29That is double the highest that it's ever been during his time at Liverpool.
02:32And if you're asking yourself, like I was, why is this happening?
02:35Well, it's probably due to the fact that he is spending more and more time out on the
02:39right wing, really wide, rather than getting into a central position.
02:43I mean, look at his average heat map this season.
02:45Now, whether this is due to Slott's tactics, losing Trent on the overlap, a different style
02:51of striker to work with in Eketike, there's plenty of debate to be had.
02:55But what's really happening is that Salah is in unfamiliar territory in comparison to his
03:00peak game, with less physical prowess, and therefore playing this whole new game that sees
03:05him attempt more crosses, less dribbles, and less shots.
03:08Of course, there is a small detail we're missing here that could be relevant, but it is impossible
03:13to quantify in an actual statistic.
03:16And that is, maybe he's just not that interested anymore and has his mind elsewhere.
03:20For the record, I don't think football players are that cold-hearted.
03:23But with rumors about money-spinning contract offers from MLS or Saudi Pro League clubs, he
03:29could be downing tools in an attempt to stay fit, sign on the dotted line, and secure a mind-blowing
03:35payday.
03:35But again, that's all speculation, upon which I'd find it hard to build an actual solid argument.
03:40So we move on.
03:42It's Salah!
03:45Now then, with Salah's decline explained away from every single angle, it begs the question,
03:49should the club have sold him earlier?
03:51Or were they right to give him a new deal?
03:53Honest answer, in my opinion, yes.
03:55They were right to extend his contract for two years.
03:58He was having an all-timer of a season.
04:00Liverpool were on their way to a Premier League title.
04:01You'd be mad to suggest otherwise on the face of it.
04:05However, there is an argument to be made that you are playing with fire by giving a new deal
04:09to a player over 32.
04:11And the reason is money.
04:13Of course it is.
04:14In today's footballing world, we may have all been accidentally gaslit by the age of
04:18freaks.
04:18Because Ronaldo, Messi, Lewandowski, and Benzema all stayed elite well into their 30s and beyond.
04:24But they are the 1%.
04:26Harry Kane, now 32, at Bayern Munich, is the only one in this next generation who I think
04:31will still be putting up ridiculous numbers when he's 35 or older.
04:34Looking at his stats, plus his style of play, he's the sort of slower, insane technician
04:39that the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo, Messi had to morph into in order to prolong their playing
04:45careers.
04:45Whereas Kane's always been like that.
04:47But freaks aside, the risk of having an older player is that they are normally past their
04:51peak.
04:51They hit a dip, their salon value plummets, and you're left with a poor performing player
04:55on high wages.
04:56Or you'd lose them for little to no money, just like with Salah.
05:00So should he have been sold last summer, leaving on a metaphorical and value-based high?
05:04It's a massive gamble, a very difficult decision, but there's proof of concept and a word of
05:08warning in both scenarios.
05:10As I mentioned earlier, Sadio Mane was sold to Bayern.
05:13Great timing, as it looked like he should have gone straight to Saudi and skipped the
05:16Bundesliga part.
05:17Coutinho was another, albeit younger.
05:19When Liverpool sold him to Barcelona for up to £142 million, his top form was never seen
05:24again.
05:25On the flip side, though, the club reportedly didn't believe that Luis Diaz was worth the
05:29wages he wanted.
05:30He left the club aged 28 for €75 million last summer, and to be honest, I think Bayern
05:36are seeing the best football of his career.
05:37At this point, I'll also throw out another example for the slightly older ones amongst
05:41you who may remember Sir Alex Ferguson selling Yap Stam in 2001.
05:45One of the best defenders in the world, aged 29, because his tackling stats had fallen.
05:50Something Fergie later admitted was one of his biggest regrets, because he didn't account
05:55for the fact that Stam had just returned from an ACL injury a little slower than expected
05:58on the pitch, and was actually attempting less tackles in the first place.
06:03So if they didn't want to make a mistake, but also knew that this was coming at some point,
06:07have the club done enough then to ensure success in a Salah-less future?
06:12I'm not convinced, and here's why.
06:17Of all the reasons that we'll get onto, there is one specific damning statistic that must
06:22haunt the recruitment department at the club.
06:24The fact that Liverpool have not signed a legitimate out-and-out right-winger since
06:29Jordan Sekiri in 2018.
06:33For nearly a decade, the club have seemed to operate on this Salah-will-handle-it philosophy,
06:37a strategy that, fair enough, worked brilliant most of the time, but was always a plan with
06:41its major flaws.
06:42Last summer was then another decisive window in the planning for life without Salah saga,
06:47where again, it feels like little thought was given, as the sale of Diaz to Bayern Munich
06:52stripped the squad of their most direct line-breaking threat, even if he was normally deployed on
06:57the opposite wing.
06:58And then, to top it all off, instead of using those funds to secure a specialised right-sided
07:03attacker to learn under Salah or gradually replace him, they almost doubled down entirely
07:09on central density.
07:11The mega-transfer trio of Alexander Idzak, Florian Wirtz, and Hugo Ekotike represented a staggering
07:17£320 million investment.
07:19On paper, they're world-class tants.
07:22On the pitch, they're also world-class tants.
07:24But it's a tactical nightmare.
07:26Wirtz is a traditional 10 who prefers the left half space, and Idzak and Ekotike are both
07:31central strikers who drift wide left.
07:33There's so little emphasis on the right wing that they've almost created a gravity-heavy
07:37team that leans entirely to one side, making them predictable for any well-drilled Premier
07:42League defence.
07:43Maybe Jeremy Frimpong's attacking presence on that side was supposed to be, or could yet
07:47still be the answer, but it does feel like a gaping hole in their attacking arsenal.
07:52This lack of foresight has left Arna Slott, or whoever might be Liverpool manager next season,
07:57let's not rule out Xavi Alonso at this stage, with a jigsaw puzzle that is missing that last
08:02annoying piece that never seems to be in the box, one that will cost them a fortune to
08:07replace.
08:08Due to what I'm going to call a succession tax, or desperation tax, depending on how close
08:13we get to the end of the transfer window, realistically, the only person I could see
08:16worthy of replacing him in a like-for-like, hit-the-ground-running, equally-dazzling levels
08:21of ability sort of way is Michael Olisse, and the chances of buying and letting him go for
08:26anything less than another Isak-size fee are minimal at best.
08:30Also, Olisse wanting to join the club when they might not have Champions League football
08:34is also minimal at best.
08:36I guess then, from that standpoint, you could argue actually very strongly that Liverpool
08:40should have sold him last summer and reinvested the money, as painful as it may have been.
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09:01Mo Salah goes for the goal!
09:03Mo Salah!
09:05We seem to be entering an era then when the 1992-born superstars are hitting the wall.
09:09First it was Xiongmin Sun, then Kevin De Bruyne, actually, whose body seems to be feeling the
09:13effects of football more and more.
09:15And Salah is just the most high-profile casualty this season, but he isn't the first and won't
09:19be the last.
09:20However, there is one counterpoint before I wrap this whole thing up.
09:24It's a possibility that I've thought long and hard about.
09:27A highly unlikely third option, known as the false dawn.
09:31Because what if the fall-off isn't permanent?
09:33What if Salah should be allowed a poor season after such a ridiculous consistent run?
09:38What if Salah still has a Danny Welbeck season left in him?
09:42OK, sure, Welbeck was never a 30-goal-a-season man, but since turning 30, he's had a late
09:48career surge at Brighton that has seen him in with a very outside chance of England's
09:52World Cup squad, mainly due to reaching double figures in Premier League goals for the first
09:57time ever in his career in the past two seasons, with his highest ever tally already guaranteed
10:02this time around, all at age 35.
10:05Maybe I was wrong about saying Kane is the only one who'll still be bagging at that age,
10:09but jokes aside, the real reason I mentioned it is because it shows that there are always
10:14anomalies in the data.
10:15Whether it's Welbeck's late blooming career or Cristiano Ronaldo's never-ending bloom,
10:21that is exactly what they are, anomalies that can happen to any player across a wide range
10:26of skills, positions and levels of football.
10:28And just because Salah's career might not have contained one of these statistical outliers,
10:33it doesn't make Mo's achievements or footballing legacy any less incredible.
10:37It just makes him all the more human.
10:40So that is it then, the footballing fall-off in a nutshell, where nothing is what it seems,
10:45yet everything can be explained.
10:46Well, almost everything.
10:48Let us know in the comments who you want to see us cover next on 442.
10:51Don't forget to grab your copy of the latest edition of the magazine, In Stores Now, sitting
10:56right behind me.
10:57And by the time you've done that, we'll have loads more content for you to enjoy.
11:00Until the next one, I'll see you later.
11:02What's up?
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