00:05Hello, I'm Lauren Taylor. This is Iran War Today, our daily briefing, bringing you up to date with all you
00:10need to know on day 64 of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
00:14Let's start with some of today's key developments.
00:17Lebanon's health ministry says 13 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon despite an ongoing ceasefire.
00:25A senior military officer in Iran says that renewed fighting with the U.S. was likely.
00:30It comes after President Trump says he's not happy about the latest peace proposals from Iran.
00:36And a rise in jet fuel prices contributes to the American carrier Spirit Airlines announcing it's shutting down.
00:46First today, Lebanon's health ministry says at least 13 people were killed by Israeli strikes on the south of the
00:52country on Friday.
00:54Israeli attacks on Hezbollah have continued despite a ceasefire agreement.
00:58Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.
01:02Now the Lebanon's army chief and head of the nation's ceasefire monitoring committee are holding what they call an extraordinary
01:09meeting in Beirut on the security situation.
01:12Let's quickly remind you why Lebanon is also involved in this conflict.
01:16When the U.S. and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran, they soon expanded to Lebanon, which is a
01:22country bordering Israel.
01:23That's because Lebanon is home to a Shia Muslim political and military group called Hezbollah.
01:29They have strong backing from Iran and oppose Israel's right to exist.
01:33Our correspondent Weira Davis is in Jerusalem and can tell us if the ceasefire is still in place.
01:38There are increasing concerns that this very fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is on the verge of collapsing,
01:46and that could lead to a pretty rapid resumption of a full-scale war.
01:50To be honest, it is a ceasefire in name only.
01:53Even though much of the heavy Israeli bombing we saw towards the end of the recent conflict that hit towns
02:00like Beirut, Tir, other parts of southern Lebanon,
02:05that has effectively stopped.
02:08Israel continues to attack Hezbollah targets and other villages and towns in southern Lebanon.
02:14Reports from the end of the week just gone say that 30 people have been killed in Israeli bombing,
02:20including many civilians, women and children.
02:24Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah positions from where Hezbollah is firing rockets,
02:30not only towards Israel but also towards Israeli troops.
02:33It must be remembered there are significant numbers of Israeli troops who have invaded southern Lebanon and remain there.
02:40Israel has declared a buffer zone, an exclusion zone, a so-called yellow line,
02:45which is roughly 10 kilometers or six miles inside Lebanon.
02:49But some of the evacuation orders that Israel has been issuing have included towns and villages well outside this exclusion
02:57area,
02:58and people in these areas have been reportedly killed in Israeli airstrikes.
03:03Now, Israel says the ceasefire is holding,
03:06but it reserves the right to attack Hezbollah positions to stop them, of course, firing towards Israel.
03:12Amid all of this is what should happen next.
03:15There are some elements in Lebanon, including the president, Joseph Aoun,
03:20who are said to be in favor of some sort of dialogue and negotiations with Israel.
03:26We've seen that messaging from the Americans.
03:29They want the Israelis and the Lebanese to get around the table and talk,
03:32but it's much more complicated than sitting down and talking.
03:36Of course, there are several factions within Lebanese society who support Hezbollah and its positions.
03:42One of their main demands before they would talk is that Israeli troops should leave southern Lebanon,
03:49where they've been for several weeks now.
03:50But Israel is not about to do that, while it still sees many of these towns and villages in the
03:55south
03:55as potential places from where Hezbollah could target Israel.
04:00So the feeling here for now is that this very fragile ceasefire, if you can call it that, is holding.
04:06But it is fragile and it could break at any moment.
04:11In Iran, a senior military officer has said that renewed fighting with the U.S. was likely.
04:16It comes hours after President Trump said he wasn't happy with the latest peace proposals
04:21Tehran has reportedly submitted to mediators Pakistan.
04:26In quotes published by Iran's FARS news agency, Mohammed Jafar Asadi,
04:30said a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely,
04:34adding that evidence has shown that the United States is not committed to any promises or agreements.
04:40David Albright from the Institute for Science and International Security
04:44says he's not surprised that the White House is dismissive of the proposals being put forward by Tehran.
04:50It's not a serious offer.
04:52For example, it demands that all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions be rescinded.
04:59I mean, it asserts this right to enrichment that it doesn't really exist.
05:04Its enrichment program has ended, destroyed, I should say, could slowly make a comeback,
05:11but it serves no purpose other than building nuclear weapons.
05:14And so it's just not, it's a non-starter.
05:18And I think he's correct not to engage in negotiations over proposals that aren't serious.
05:25The ceasefire is something Donald Trump has been using to justify not getting written consent from Congress for the war.
05:32Catherine Yon-Ebright from the Brennan Center, which is a law and policy organization in the U.S., explains.
05:38President Trump needed to secure congressional authorization before even launching the war.
05:42But now that the war is past 60 days, it is unambiguously unlawful.
05:48The Trump administration, for its own part, is arguing that the ceasefire that has existed for the past two weeks
05:56of April
05:58means that the 60-day clock has been paused or even terminated.
06:02But there is nothing in the War Powers Resolutions text or design that suggests that the clock can be paused.
06:08Instead, that clock ran out on May 1.
06:13Well, we wait and see what Congress will do next.
06:16But in the meantime, no new date for in-person talks between the U.S. and Iranian delegations has been
06:21set.
06:22Both countries continue to block sea traffic in and around the Gulf, which is having a big impact on economies
06:27around the world.
06:29The Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, reiterated the U.K.'s position when he spoke to Nick Robinson on the Today programme.
06:36What is the scale of the crisis you think we are now facing as a country as a result of
06:42the fact that the lifeblood of the global economy, oil, cannot travel through the strait of form?
06:47The way I'd express it is this.
06:48There are moments in history that will define a generation.
06:54And I think we're in one of those moments.
06:56The Iran war is not our war.
06:59We're not getting dragged into it.
07:02Whatever pressure is put on me, I'm not going to drag the United Kingdom into a war.
07:07It's not in our national interest.
07:09But it is impacting us.
07:10It's impacting our economy.
07:13It's impacting what happens on our streets.
07:16As Keir Starmer mentioned, this war is having an impact globally.
07:20And today an airline has announced it will be shutting down.
07:22Spirit Airlines is the first carrier to fall victim to the Iran war, which has caused jet fuel prices to
07:28double.
07:29The American budget carrier ceased operations after failing to secure creditor support for a government bailout plan.
07:36Well, these people in Fort Lauderdale in Florida gave us their reaction to the news and whether they'd support a
07:41bailout.
07:42Hearing that Spirit is shutting down, I think it's insane.
07:45I've never, I mean, I always thought Spirit had a bunch of customers and a lot of support with, like,
07:52other people flying as well.
07:54I look at more so for the people that actually work in Spirit as well.
07:57If that means you're bailing out Spirit, that means these people could keep their jobs.
07:59I'm all for it.
08:01Jet fuel prices, as we've mentioned, have doubled since the start of the war,
08:04as the conflict has slowed the production and transportation of fuel across the Middle East.
08:09This is having a huge impact on airlines like Spirit, as aviation consultant Paul Charles explains.
08:15If you're any airline, let alone Spirit, 35% of your fixed costs come from jet fuel.
08:23So in the majority of cases, especially in the US, you don't buy jet fuel in advance, like many European
08:29airlines do, at a fixed price.
08:31You're buying them on the day at whatever price is available.
08:34And the price of jet fuel has soared in recent weeks, pretty well doubled to $5 or so.
08:40And that's simply unsustainable for most airlines.
08:45Spirit was already in financial dire straits.
08:49And therefore, the higher cost, if you're paying double on 35% of your fixed costs, it's simply unsustainable.
08:56Let's take a look at what might happen next and what this all might mean for the end of the
09:01war.
09:01With me is Seyvash Adalan, senior reporter for BBC Persian.
09:05So do you know anything at all about the latest proposals that Iran has put forward?
09:10Well, we know that officially these proposals were submitted on Thursday through the Pakistanis.
09:15We don't exactly know what the different articles in this proposal contain,
09:20but we think it's a modification of the initial proposal that Iran had gave just two weeks ago,
09:26which centered around ending the naval blockade on one hand in exchange for opening up the Strait of Hormuz
09:33and then leaving the nuclear and the missile and the proxy group issues for a later date to be discussed
09:40between the US and Israel.
09:42And people are searching online always, when will the war end?
09:46What's your assessment to that big question?
09:48Well, it depends, because it depends what you mean by war.
09:52Is it necessarily just military confrontation?
09:54Because as far as some people are concerned in Iran and the US,
09:57this naval blockade itself constitutes a declaration of war.
10:01And at any time, as far as Iran is concerned, it reserves, as it said,
10:06the right to take action to confront this military naval blockade,
10:13which would then trigger a retaliation by the US, and then we're back to square one.
10:18So we are in a situation of no war, no peace.
10:21If the US accepts Iran's proposal for opening up those waterways,
10:26whether it's Iran's blockade or the Strait of Hormuz,
10:30and then to leave the talks for the bigger agreement that the two countries want to achieve,
10:36then there is a chance that we might see an end to this war.
10:41But if it's going to be the US position, which wants everything on the table,
10:46including the blockade, the Strait, nuclear issue, ballistic missiles,
10:50Iran support for proxies, sanctions removal for Iran,
10:54then I think we're quite a bit far off from that point.
10:57And in terms of the pain kind of for the economy, the global economy, but also in Iran,
11:02how is that shaping up in terms of who will suffer most and essentially be put under pressure fastest?
11:08It's difficult. Both sides are strangulating each other.
11:11Iran is really holding the global economy hostage,
11:14and the US is exerting enormous pressure on Iran's economy.
11:19It was already bad enough before the naval blockade,
11:22because of US and Israeli strikes.
11:24Thousands, if not tens of thousands of people were laid off from their jobs.
11:28Inflation has been rampant.
11:30Here in the West, we're talking about single-digit figures for inflation,
11:34but in Iran, it's now double digits or even triple digits.
11:37So the currency is taking a free fall,
11:40and at the same time, people don't have internet.
11:43Internet disconnection has gone into its second months.
11:46So without internet, without a job, without a money,
11:49you can imagine what the people are going through now.
11:52Seyvash Adelan, thank you very much indeed for those thoughts there.
11:56Whether you're joining us on YouTube, TikTok, Sounds, radio or TV,
12:00thanks for your time.
12:01We'll be back at the same time tomorrow with the Iran war today.
12:04Bye for now.
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