00:00We just want to look at that result in Japan. As you have been hearing, Japan's Prime Minister
00:05Shigeru Ishiba has reiterated he will stay on in office as Prime Minister, despite his governing
00:13coalition losing its majority in the upper house of parliament in national elections.
00:19Mr. Ishiba said the public had delivered a harsh judgment, but there were too many pressing issues
00:25to resolve for him to resign now. And he did, of course, talk about the threat of extra
00:32U.S. tariffs and inflation. Japan's opposition parties are fragmented and unlikely to try
00:38to form a government themselves. The governing bloc lost control of the more powerful lower
00:44house in October. Well, John Nilsson Wright is associate professor at the University of Cambridge
00:51and head of Japan and Korea's program at the Center for Geopolitics. And he gave me his thoughts
00:57about the LDP's election defeat.
01:01Going into this election, Prime Minister Ishiba was in a very weak position. All of the things
01:07that your correspondent was describing, the impact of very high price inflation and more
01:12than 3% in Japan, the question of rice prices, the issue of corruption as it's dominated the
01:19LDP, together with another issue which has been really, I think, increasingly stoked by parties
01:25like Sunset or the question of immigration, particularly Chinese immigration, has really
01:32combined together with the issue of tariff pressure from the United States to create a crisis of
01:38confidence, if you like, in the governing LDP. So this outcome is not a surprise. I think what is,
01:43however, something of a surprise is the rise of far-right nationalist parties. For a long time,
01:49we assume that populism really had no traction in Japan. I think we now have to revise that
01:53consideration. And it raises interesting questions about what the government does now if Mr. Ishiba is
02:00able to tough it out. He said he will stay as Prime Minister, but there will be real pressure from
02:04within his party after three major defeats, the lower house election back in October, recent metropolitan
02:13elections in Tokyo. And now this dramatic defeat in the upper house election makes his position, I would
02:20say, almost untenable. But we'll have to wait and see to see what members of his own party decide to do.
02:26And just talk us through what might happen going forward. Because as you say, to many, it might seem
02:33surprising that this party, Sunseto, has done as well as it did. There is a real shift among the young
02:41Japanese in terms of what they're expecting from this government, whereas previous generations have
02:47just kind of opted for stability every time and stuck with what they know. It would seem that's
02:53no longer something that the LDP can just assume. Complacency, you know, they've have many argue
02:59they've been very complacent in government. Well, the trouble is, there are no good policy options at
03:05the moment. I mean, in order to address the concerns of voters who are concerned with price inflation,
03:10the government will now come under pressure to follow through with some of the proposals from
03:16the opposition parties, one of which is a cut in the consumption tax, which of course would have an
03:21immediate benefit in terms of addressing the cost of living issues for ordinary Japanese voters. But
03:26it would also cut into social security provision, which is hugely important for an aging population.
03:32It would also reduce government revenue. It would increase the pressure on the government to increase
03:37reliance on government debt. This is a country with a 260% debt to GDP ratio. The markets will then
03:45punish the government and the country. All of this happening at a time when the squeeze in the
03:50external trade sector is becoming even more pronounced, given those very high threats of 25% tariffs on
03:57Japan's auto sector, and a further 25% increase in tariffs on all Japanese exports to the United States.
04:04It's really almost impossible to see how the government can square the circle. And so we're
04:09going to see a period of economic turmoil. And it's going to be very difficult for Mr. Ishiba to
04:15demonstrate tangible progress. And I think that's...
04:17And just briefly, John, just quickly, because we're almost out of time, does this, this presumably,
04:23as far as negotiating with the US is concerned, really weakens Japan's hand, if the Prime Minister is
04:29seen really as a lame duck. President Trump will be very aware of that when it comes to negotiating
04:34with Japan.
04:35Yes. And therefore, that's one reason why party members might decide to put pressure on
04:41Mr. Ishiba to step down so that they have a tougher negotiator, if you like, going into those
04:45negotiations. Who that would be? Takeichi Sanai, for example, a protege of former Prime Minister Abe,
04:52late Prime Minister Abe, more nationalistic. That might change the tenor of those talks. But again,
04:56it's too early to say at this point. It is too early to say on a lot of things at the moment.
05:01Back to you, Samantha Thali. Thanks very much.
