00:00It's Benzinga, bringing Wall Street to Main Street.
00:02The Anti-Corruption Data Collective reviewed 435,672 polymarket markets settled between
00:09January 2021 and mid-March 2026, covering $54.4 billion in wagers, according to Benzinga.
00:17It found low-probability bets in war markets win at more than triple the expected rates.
00:22Long-shot bets of $2,500 or more at 35 cents or lower win 14% overall and 51.8
00:30% in military
00:31and defense markets, while political markets sit near 25%.
00:35A wallet earned nearly $500,000 betting on a June 2025 U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities,
00:44hours before it happened.
00:45Nineteen long-shot bets totaling $164,292 clustered in the hours before the strike.
00:54Eight wallets generated about $1.8 million in profit, with four exceeding 99% win rates.
01:01A CDC recommended requiring Polymarket to collect government ID and backed a ban on war-related
01:08wagers as prosecutors reviewed Iran's strike trades for potential insider trading violations.
01:13For all things money, visit Benzinga.com.
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