00:00Bob, do you have any reflections on this decision?
00:02Yeah, clearly it's in the dissents.
00:04Clearly they're moving more towards a symmetrical policy.
00:07It's confirmed in the first paragraph where they characterise inflation previously as remained somewhat elevated.
00:15They remove the somewhat and it's just elevated.
00:18So they're telling us they are increasingly concerned about the level of prices, the level of oil and the potential
00:25pass through to the system.
00:26I think you're right.
00:27I think this is less a message about J-PAL and more a message to the incoming Fed chair that,
00:34hey, we could be dissenting.
00:36Get prepared for that.
00:37I think he may welcome that.
00:39Is all of this discussion about an historic post-COVID stimulus that is starting to make the wheels come off
00:47the wagon?
00:47Yeah.
00:48Well, when I was listening to Matt and Subhadra earlier going into this, I was thinking the Fed would be
00:54nuts not to move to a symmetrical posture because we know we have higher prices.
00:59And what I heard from them is the economy is doing just fine.
01:02They're right.
01:03You've got the stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
01:06That's not finished.
01:07We know there's a tremendous amount of capex.
01:11When I talk to our clients, they're just getting started on the AI journey.
01:15There's a lot more spending to come.
01:17And we also know there's a lot of money sloshing around the system.
01:21You look at any measure of money, M2, deposits, money market funds, they're still going vertical.
01:28There's a lot of money sloshing around the system.
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