- 9 hours ago
With both teams slipping towards the relegation zone, Tottenham have sacked Thomas Frank, Nottingham Forest have sacked Sean Dyche and replaced them Igor Tudor and Vítor Pereira respectively? But is this actually a good idea?Adam Clery examines EVERY sacking in the last 10 years to see how effective it was at keeping teams in the Premier League.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel, and does sacking your manager actually stop you getting relegated?
00:09You see it every single season, teams staring ominously at the trapdoor to the championship.
00:14The only thing the owners can think to do is to sack the man in charge and hope for the
00:21best.
00:22But does it actually make a difference?
00:25Well, as you're about to see, we have been deep, deep through all the data of the last 10 years
00:31of the Premier League, and the results are quite interesting.
00:36Now, fair warning, this is the nerdiest thing we have ever, ever made, so do you like decimal points?
00:44No.
00:45Alright, so back in, like, November, the only thing that was closer to the sack than Daniel Farker was the
00:52male appendage.
00:53But he kept his job, and Leeds are now arguably the form team in the Premier League's relegation scrap.
00:59They've only had two defeats in the last 13, which is obviously really good.
01:02But last week, both Tottenham and Nottingham Forest could feel their arseholes twitching at West Ham's upturned form, and dispensed
01:10with Thomas Frank and Sean Dyche.
01:13Now, crucially, and it will become apparent as the video goes on, why this is crucial, right?
01:18At the time of me making this, neither of those teams are in the relegation zone, which is good, but
01:25between them, they have one win in their last 10 games, which is bad.
01:31Meanwhile, West Ham are currently in the relegation zone, but they've picked up 10 points out of the last 15,
01:38which means,
01:39if you're Forest or Spurs, you are in deep, deep, deep, deep shit.
01:44Especially as you've both got European fixtures to contend with.
01:48And their only option, it seems, was to replace the manager and hope for some sort of upturn in form
01:54over the remainder of the season.
01:56But the question we are here to answer today is, does that actually work?
02:02Is that a smart decision to make?
02:05And, like I said, we've been through the last 10 seasons in the Premier League and looked at every single
02:11managerial sacking at the bottom of the table.
02:15Now, just full disclosure, right, this is an oversimplification, and the video is going to be full of them.
02:22But we've looked at every single instance of a team between 15th and 20th in the league sacking their manager.
02:30And then what that eventually did for their final position in the league table, as well as how many games
02:37to actually work with the new manager had.
02:40And we'll stick a link in the description somewhere so you can have a playabout with this yourself, if you
02:44want.
02:45Because if you're looking at it thinking, wow, Adam, I bet that took a long time, getting all this data
02:50together and making it look relatively pretty, you'd be right.
02:54Yes, I didn't lose a day of my life doing this, so we couldn't all look at it more.
03:01Now, obviously, you're not going to be able to make head nor tail of this zoomed all the way out
03:05unless you're watching it on the big telly.
03:08But the main thing to notice straight away, right, is the reds in this column here, because these are the
03:15finishing positions.
03:16If it's in red, those are all the teams who were eventually relegated.
03:21And the main headline straight away, right, is of the 49 examples there are of a team in the bottom
03:28five sacking their manager.
03:30That's all prior to this season where we've added another five, right?
03:33Of those 49 examples, 24 of them ended up getting relegated.
03:39That is 48.9% or half, as a normal person would call it.
03:45So you'd look at that and you'd think, well, it's just basically a coin flip, isn't it?
03:49As many teams went down, as didn't, as a result of sacking their manager.
03:53So there's not really anything we can learn from that.
03:56But can you imagine if that was the entire video?
04:00Sorry, everyone, I did the math and there's no conclusions to be drawn.
04:04Can you imagine if that was it?
04:10No, sir, not here on ACFC.
04:13I didn't have no plans on Valentine's Day for nothing.
04:16First off, your starting position makes an absolutely massive difference.
04:22If we go and sort the graph by where teams were in the league when they made the sacking,
04:26of the 19 sides that were already outside of the relegation zone,
04:30only three of them ended up getting relegated.
04:33Leicester City last season, Alan Pardews, West Bromwich Albion,
04:37and Leeds United, that season where they binned off Jesse March,
04:41then gave the job to Javi Garcia, decided that was bad,
04:44and then somehow expected Sam Allardyce to fix it with four games left.
04:49But then, on the other side of the coin,
04:51the 31 times a team already in the relegation zone sacked their manager,
04:5620 of them still got relegated, and that is basically two-thirds of them.
05:02And so, straight away, you can see this idea that it's just 50-50 starts to shift.
05:08If you are already in trouble, if you're already in the relegation zone,
05:12the odds start to move away from being in your favor.
05:17You're more likely to go down than you are to stay up.
05:19So that then begs the question, what can make the difference for you?
05:25What do the 11 teams that clawed their way out of the relegation zone have,
05:28that the 20 teams that stayed in it didn't?
05:32And you can see the answer to that really clearly on the graph.
05:36Because if we look at the teams that did get out of the relegation zone
05:39after sacking their manager,
05:41the one thing they've all got in common is here.
05:45The amount of games they had remaining in the season.
05:49Every single one of those teams still had at least half of the season to play with.
05:57Sean Dyche took over from Frank Lampard and Everton with exactly half of the season played,
06:02but most of these teams have over 20, sometimes nearly 30 games with which to do something.
06:09And yes, obviously having time remaining does not guarantee you anything,
06:14but if you go and look at all the teams that couldn't get out of the relegation zone,
06:18look how frequently there are 19 games or less remaining.
06:2210 for Rafa Benitez at Newcastle,
06:24Scott Parker at Fulham and Dean Smith at Leicester.
06:26Only 16 for Paul Lambert at Stoke.
06:29And they were all teams, if you remember,
06:31who for a long part of that season felt too good to go down.
06:36And, I mean, maybe they were,
06:38but they left it so late to make a managerial change,
06:42they couldn't fix it.
06:43In fact, if you are in the relegation zone at roughly the halfway point or later,
06:48only Sean Dyche at Everton.
06:50One time in the last 10 years has changing your manager actually saved you.
06:56And you can see why time matters so much,
06:58because Dyche did make Everton harder to play against,
07:01but they still started with six defeats in his first eight games.
07:05But after that, once he'd had time with them on the training ground,
07:08he got them to buy into what he was doing,
07:10it was only four defeats in the last 12.
07:13And obviously there was only three wins in that time as well, mind you.
07:16But that solidity, it took him time to coach into the team,
07:20ultimately got them some pretty massive away draws
07:23that ultimately kept them in division.
07:25And thinking back to Everton that season,
07:28if they'd left that a little bit later,
07:30do they then get that massive home win against Leeds?
07:33Do they grind out that draw away to Leicester?
07:37Probably not.
07:38But what if, right, you've crossed that threshold of the halfway point of the season,
07:42and you're already out of the relegation zone?
07:45What does that do?
07:46Well, if you then elect to sack your manager,
07:48it's only been that Marsh-Garcia-Allardyce disaster at Leeds
07:52that then managed to slip into the relegation zone and get relegated.
07:56And what is particularly unusual about that example
07:59is that when they got rid of Garcia and brought Allardyce in
08:02with just four games left, they were already out of the relegation zone.
08:08They were 17.
08:09But if you go back and you look at their fixtures,
08:11they were absolutely minging.
08:14And Allardyce only managed to get them one point from these last four,
08:18when in reality, it turned out they needed six.
08:21So I don't think you can blame Sam Allardyce for that one.
08:24The damage had clearly been done.
08:26And interestingly, right, Leeds sacked Jesse March around about the same time
08:31that Everton brought in Sean Dyche.
08:34And it's obvious that Javi Garcia was a disastrous appointment,
08:37but if they'd made it a little bit sooner or got Allardyce in originally,
08:41I can't remember if he was available or not,
08:44would that have saved them?
08:45Probably yes.
08:47So then the question is, what does any of this actually tell us?
08:52Which parts of this can you repeat in the pub
08:54when you're with your friends who are normal?
08:57Well, first off, sacking your manager is not really a risk.
09:01Teams that are already out of the relegation zone
09:04almost never shoot themselves in the foot by making a change,
09:08no matter how long is left in the season.
09:11But more importantly, I would say if you are already in the bottom three,
09:15your chances of it saving your season are pretty good.
09:20I know we said two thirds of them still go down,
09:22but making a change has saved 11 teams over the last 10 seasons,
09:27which averages out as it happens every single year.
09:31And just if you purely want to play the maths on this one, right,
09:34the average change to a team in the bottom five's position
09:38that sacking their manager has made over the last 10 seasons is plus 3.5.
09:46Now, obviously, there's some huge outliers at the very top here
09:49that are dragging that average up.
09:50But on average, statistically, you improve your league position.
09:55And again, gross oversimplification.
09:57Obviously, there are a million individual factors
10:00and every single team is different.
10:02But purely, statistically speaking, it seems to work.
10:06But the most important thing you can see in these numbers
10:10is that if you are going to do this,
10:12if you are going to sack your manager,
10:14do it early.
10:16Your chances drastically scale up
10:19the more games you give someone coming in
10:21to actually change what's wrong.
10:23Now, the reasons for that are pretty straightforward,
10:26but the fact that if you do it before the halfway point,
10:29you're going to get a transfer window to play with
10:31as well as lots of time on the training grounds
10:34cannot hurt.
10:36However, if you would like to get even nerdier about this,
10:40and don't answer that.
10:41That wasn't a question.
10:42We're doing it anyway.
10:43I've already done the spreadsheet, okay?
10:45The real calculations start to come in
10:47when you look at what it actually is
10:50the incoming managers manage to change.
10:53In virtually every single team you look at here,
10:57the vital component is defensive solidity.
11:01And just to give you one quite drastic example here,
11:04right, the most recent brilliant comeback story
11:07we've had in the Premier League
11:08was Vitor Pereira's Wolves.
11:11They looked absolutely doomed at one point of the season,
11:13and then before you knew it,
11:15it was the pints and then the points.
11:17And the thing is, Gary O'Neill did have them scoring goals.
11:201.5 per game was much better than the other teams
11:23in the relegation zone,
11:24but 16 games into the season,
11:27they were still 19th.
11:29And across the 22 games Vitor Pereira had in charge,
11:33their goals per game actually dropped.
11:36It went from 1.5 to 1.3.
11:39But what's absolutely mad is the goals they were conceding per game
11:43went from 2.5, 2.5 to just 1.3.
11:49Vitor Pereira had them scoring slightly less goals,
11:53yes, but he cut the number they were conceding
11:55almost in half.
11:57And as a result, their points per game trebled from 0.5.
12:02Look, I said there was going to be decimal points in this video.
12:04Do not look at me like that, right?
12:06To 1.5.
12:08And they leapt from 19th in the table to 15th.
12:11And if you go back to those examples of Deich and Javi Garcia
12:14coming in almost exactly the same time in the season,
12:17Everton in the relegation zone and Leeds out of it,
12:20what reversed their fortunes was exactly the same thing.
12:25They had almost identical goals conceded per game
12:28at the point of the sackings, 1.6 and 1.7 respectively,
12:32but Deich managed to shave that down to 1.4 per game
12:37while Leeds jumped to 2.5.
12:40Like, neither team had a noticeable change
12:43in the amount of goals they were scoring,
12:45but Deich managing to just tighten them up
12:47ever so slightly at the back
12:49while Leeds spiralled and got worse
12:51is what made the difference
12:53and kept one up and sent the other down.
12:55And this, by the way,
12:57just to bring this entire video right back into the present,
13:00is precisely what should be worrying fans
13:03of Tottenham and Nottingham Forest.
13:06Because that is exactly what Nuno has managed to do
13:09at West Ham.
13:11They were conceding 1.8 goals per game
13:14at the point they dispensed with Ange Postacoglu,
13:16and Nuno has managed to get them down
13:19to just under 1.2.
13:22And this is why we said earlier on time is so important
13:25because despite those two wins he had at the start,
13:28he has had an absolutely grotesque run of form
13:32trying to get his ideas and his style of play
13:35into this team.
13:36And just like we saw with those other managers
13:38who've come in and eventually turned it around,
13:40this just awful initial set of results
13:43has finally started to bear some fruit
13:46in their most recent games.
13:48And like what we are now,
13:49February or something,
13:50there is still more than enough time
13:52for that defensive solidity
13:54to grind out the draws and the occasional wins
13:57they are going to need to overhaul
14:00one of those teams.
14:02Thomas Frank was averaging about 1.5 goals against
14:05and Forest have been even higher than that
14:07across the three managers they've had this season.
14:10So with only a few points
14:12separating all three of these teams,
14:14it's West Ham who have the best defensive numbers.
14:17And as we've seen historically,
14:19it's that that normally makes the difference.
14:22Oh, and just in case you're wondering,
14:24Rob Edwards has actually improved Wolves
14:27in this regard as well.
14:29He's taken them from two goals conceded per game,
14:32two to just 1.7.
14:34But at this stage,
14:36that is the same as like trying to plug the iceberg gash
14:40in the side of the Titanic
14:41by piling some towels up against it.
14:46Like, you're doing your best, mate.
14:47We can all see that.
14:49But this thing, it is going down.
14:51So yes, there you go.
14:53That is how me and a Google Sheets sheet
14:57proves that if you are worried about getting relegated,
14:59you probably should sack your manager.
15:02It is a low-risk, high-reward strategy.
15:05And I've been on LinkedIn like twice.
15:07People love those.
15:09And just on the off chance you've stayed all the way
15:10till the end of the video,
15:11I do have a small favor to ask.
15:13Those of you who are following me on Instagram
15:15will know that my entire personality now
15:18is just going for runs.
15:21Look, I did this absolutely horrible one on Sunday,
15:23the wettest one they've ever done.
15:25But I'm doing the London landmarks
15:28for the Teenage Cancer Trust in like six weeks' time.
15:32And I need to raise some money for them.
15:34So I'm asking you if you've got a spare five, ten pounds
15:38or whatever, there will be a link to donate
15:40in the description.
15:42I am trying to raise quite a lot of money
15:45for charity this year
15:46because I'm doing so much running.
15:47And I think that's the only way I can justify it
15:50without just saying it's a midlife crisis,
15:53which obviously it is.
15:55So anything you've got going spare,
15:56it's an absolutely unbelievable cause.
15:58I'm sure I don't need to tell you
15:59about the work they do.
16:00Like being a teenager is horrible in general.
16:04Like remember, it was really messy
16:05and you didn't know what was going on.
16:07So having to navigate all that
16:08and a disease like that at the same time,
16:10I cannot even begin to imagine
16:13the strength it must take.
16:14And they make a massive difference
16:15with people who are going through that.
16:17So if you have got any spare change,
16:19it is greatly appreciated.
16:21But yes, that's all the end of video drivel
16:23I'm going to give you.
16:24Subscribe to the channel,
16:25buy a t-shirt, become a member,
16:26all the fun stuff.
16:27Get me on social media
16:28at Adam Cleary, CLEOI.
16:30Yadda, yadda, yadda.
16:31I actually weirdly enjoyed putting this together.
16:33So if you would like more
16:35weirdly deep analytical videos
16:37to have a look at,
16:39suggest some in the comments.
16:40I'll try and do a couple of more.
16:42And yeah, hopefully we'll all have a nice time.
16:45That's all I ever want.
16:47Goodbye.
16:47Goodbye.
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