- 13 hours ago
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, believes Russia will fail to achieve its objectives in Ukraine. He told DW it would be "difficult" to bring the war to an end on the battlefield.
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00:01Admiral Dragone, chair of NATO's military committee, welcome to Kyiv Security Forum and Deutsche Welle.
00:07Thank you. Thank you very much.
00:08So we are talking in the Ukrainian capital, the fifth year of the Russian invasion,
00:12but this war somehow has disappeared from the news because of the war in Iran.
00:19But also, this is my impression, because there is not much new happening on the battlefield.
00:25Are we at a stalemate in this war?
00:29First, let me tell you that one of the reasons why I'm here is that because we want to make
00:35clear that NATO is with Ukraine
00:39and it will stay in our unwavering commitment up to the end, up to the time in which Ukraine will
00:49reach a long-lasting, just peace, stable.
00:53And that's our commitment and it is unwavering.
00:56Yes, something else is happening, but also the battlefield, stalemate, I would say yes.
01:05I mean, there is no terrain gain, substantial terrain gain.
01:10There are a lot of losses on the Russian side. They are losing a lot of soldiers.
01:18Ukraine is holding, they are holding the line. So, I mean, it's, let's say, can you say it, frozen?
01:26I mean, it's really, really, I mean, at a point in which there is no gain on the field by
01:37anybody.
01:38But I think that the good news is that Ukraine is really holding the line, which is permanent.
01:44The question is how? Because half a year ago, a few months ago, Russia was gaining ground.
01:50A lot of people in Europe also were worried that Russia might achieve a breakthrough or something like that.
01:55That didn't happen in winter. What's the secret?
01:59I think that the first thing that we need to consider is the great value and strength and courage of
02:08a Ukrainian soldier,
02:09but also the Ukrainian citizen. This is really the difference between the two contendants.
02:19I mean, there is one side who is strong, motivated and dedicated to defend their own country,
02:25and another one which is invading, basically.
02:28Still, the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has said several times that he is worried that Ukraine might not get enough certain
02:35types of weapons.
02:36For example, he mentioned the Patriot interceptors that the United States are providing and the Europeans are paying for.
02:42How worried are you that shortage of those specific weapons might have an impact on the war?
02:50I can tell you that, I mean, the weapon flow, the system, whatever it is necessary to Ukraine is flowing.
03:02I mean, it is running. The Pearl is the principle, but not the only one.
03:10President Zelenskyy said it's worse than ever.
03:13Worse than ever? Well, I can tell you that the effort from nations and NATO side is the same one.
03:23And all the money that every single nation is spending on Pearl for American system is in systems which are
03:32already here or which are almost gone.
03:35Do you think Pearl should be somehow reformed? There were speculations about maybe a new format, Pearl Plus. What do
03:42you think of it?
03:43Well, I think it is working. I think that it's not, as I told you, it's not just Pearl, but
03:47which is working is the total enterprises that are providing system and weapon system to Ukraine, which is Pearl, which
03:58is a bilateral agreement, which is funding from different sources like European Union, for example.
04:06So, I mean, this is the whole system, which is working and giving, I tell you what, the best that
04:12they can to Ukraine.
04:14How strong or how weak is the Russian army at the moment? What is your assessment?
04:19Well, they were strong. They are still strong. They count on quantity, of course. Their way of fighting is kind
04:27of, I mean, conventional way.
04:29They are just counting on wave, wave, wave. They don't take into consideration losses. They are fighting their war. They
04:39are not achieving their goals, their strategic goals, their strategic objective, and they will not.
04:46But, again, they are a strong army. But I see that Ukraine, which is smaller in size, is just holding
04:54the line in a way that we can say it was unexpected, but demonstrate how strong they are.
05:04Do you think Russia would mobilize in the near future?
05:08Well, mobilization would be against the concept of special operation, because you mobilize for war. For special operation, you are
05:19not supposed to mobilize because it is a special operation.
05:21So, since they are repeating that this is still, after four years, a special operation, I am not expecting mobilization
05:30right now.
05:31But do you expect the war to continue as it is this year?
05:36Well, since we are at a frozen point, I think it will last until they decide, which is almost time
05:45to sit. But I can see that one of the two is ready to sit and talk, and the other
05:50one is not.
05:50Do you think the war will be decided on the battlefield or inside Russia, where the economy is throwing cracks?
05:57In the battlefield, it is pretty difficult. From what we can see, it is pretty difficult. I think that the
06:02economic will be part of the final result.
06:07Of course, we need, for example, as soon as the Gulf conflict is over, just to restore and maybe increase
06:16all the sanctions and all the economic pressure that we were exercising toward Russia.
06:25Drones are playing a huge role in this war. We have seen a major development since 2022.
06:33Yep.
06:34But not just in the air, but also on sea. People say, experts say, military say, like you, that Ukraine
06:41has revolutionized war at sea.
06:44What do you think of it? What can NATO learn from Ukraine in maritime battles?
06:51Well, we see, we saw, we saw that, I mean, as a matter of fact, with drones, Ukraine compelled the
06:58Russian Black Sea fleet to stay in the harbors in Crimea.
07:04So, this means something. They sunk a lot of ships, big ships, as you can recall in Moskva. The learning
07:13for us, again, that the amended system will, are now structural of the battle, either at sea and also on
07:24land.
07:24They are just part of the battle. They are achieving the best result as far as, I mean, sinking or
07:31hitting, attacking. And so we need to take this into consideration.
07:36They will not be the only one, of course, but they will be the ones who will be driving strategic
07:43decision, operational decision on the field, because they are the ones that what they are achieving 80% of strikes
07:52result right now.
07:54So, it means, it is a figure that is only, only, can increase. That's basically what I think.
08:01Ukrainian drone experts will be training German Bundeswehr. Do you think that NATO countries like Italy or France or other
08:10countries that have big naval forces could also ask Ukraine to send their experts for sea drones?
08:20I think it is already part of our relationship. I mean, you can recall that from February 2025, the JETEC
08:31was set up in Poland, which is a joint analysis training and education center.
08:38It is a Ukraine-NATO enterprise in which we are exploiting lesson learned. Lesson learned 360 degrees. So, why not
08:47at sea? We have a lot of stuff that we can learn, that we can apply, that can get into
08:54our doctrine and our way of preparing for conflict from Ukraine.
08:59And at sea would be part of the whole learning objective.
09:05Do you see a change in the paradigm? Because when the war started, Ukraine sent soldiers to NATO countries to
09:11train. Now it could be the other way around.
09:14Yeah.
09:15Is it already happening?
09:16Yeah, it is happening. I mean, it happened in the Gulf, for example. I mean, 200 or something like that
09:21Ukrainian instructors went down there and helped the Gulf countries to, I mean, counteract against the huge amount of air
09:34missile and drone attack from Iran.
09:36So that's just, and they organize the way they defend themselves, their territory. We again, we are learning from them
09:45in JETEC and we are asking them to, for example, to play red team in exercises.
09:51I mean, they are the attacker, we are the defender and they teach us how to properly defend ourselves from
09:57drone attack.
09:58Could you maybe give an example how those games are happening?
10:02Well, I will never tell you because it is not convenient for NATO.
10:05So, we had several examples when Ukrainian officers or trainees have bitten NATO.
10:14I was just joking. But no, they have a great teaching power and they are really available to share with
10:25us, which means something, to share with us all their experience on the battlefield and that is golden for us.
10:33Do you think it is sometimes difficult for Western armies, NATO armies, to accept that a country like Ukraine, which
10:41is actually a poor country, can do something better than reach NATO countries?
10:48Is there a psychological barrier to accept that?
10:51I don't think so. I don't think so because, I mean, they are suffering their own, I mean, they are
10:56gaining their own experience on the battlefield.
10:58So, they deserve respect. And this goes beyond a country which is rich and which is poor. We just respect
11:06them, we just honor their courage, their capability and that's something that goes beyond everything, mainly in the military way
11:14of life.
11:15Let's talk about the post-war Ukraine. Because last year there were a lot of talks on political level, diplomatic
11:21level, what will happen after the ceasefire.
11:25Some NATO member countries said they are ready to send soldiers into Ukraine. Others, like Germany said, we are not
11:32ready for that yet. We can stay outside but help from neighboring NATO countries.
11:36How do you see NATO's role when the war is over?
11:40How do I see NATO countries role?
11:42Yes.
11:43If we consider that the Coalition of the Willing is just a planning phase of their planning and, of course,
11:49the condition is that, I mean, with a peace in place, a long, just-lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia,
12:00that could be time for a coalition of the Willing to help Ukraine in reconstruction, in return to normal life.
12:11Also because we want a Ukrainian army strong and being able by themselves to deter any kind of additional, and
12:22we could say that would be the third one, additional aggression from Russia.
12:25So this is the situation I foresee for the intervention of some NATO countries, which are already talking as far
12:33as the Coalition of the Willing, in helping to return to normal life, to Ukraine,
12:39in helping them in training, in helping them in reconstruction, having airport working.
12:46That's basically, I think, the right way to see the future of Ukraine and the future of, I mean, Western
12:53countries or countries which belong to the Alliance on a volunteer base to intervene.
13:01Germany has said that it wants to build the strongest conventional army in Europe. How would you assess the German
13:07progress?
13:08Well, this just told it. Of course, we see German how much they commit in defence investment and that is,
13:18this is a strong message.
13:19It's a strong message that Germany is, I mean, is stepping up and also other countries are stepping up.
13:25Germany will exercise a pulling factor. I think so. I mean, others will follow.
13:30And that's, that's the way that we now decide to, I mean, to increase our commitment, our investment, our responsibility
13:44and our activity and our also authority within the Alliance.
13:49But do you think that they, not just Germany, but other NATO countries, maybe should rethink their military spending?
13:55Because Germany is spending a lot on hardware, tanks, fighter jets, things like that.
14:01What we see in Ukraine, it's the drones that actually are responsible for 80%, you said it yourself, of the
14:08killings on the battlefield.
14:10So maybe they should just spend more money on drones and less on tanks.
14:15I cannot get into the, I mean, whatever Germany is deciding, but from my standpoint, the smart thing, also taking,
14:25I mean, example and taking consideration what is going on in this war.
14:29And I tell you what, the next war will not be this one, but again, we need to think forward.
14:34But again, it will be the, the smart thing to do will be just to have the good balance between,
14:40I mean, conventional, that need to be, I mean, need to be improved.
14:45Modernized.
14:45Modernized.
14:46And the new, the new system that we see are having a great, a great deal of importance in, in
14:55the war.
14:55I'm speaking about drone, but not only cyber, also cognitive is that, is, is important part of the, of the
15:01actual and future wars.
15:03So, I mean, just consider that Russia for cognitive, just cognitive.
15:06So, fact, fake news, disinformation and on, just for cognitive warfare, they spend $2 billion per year, just cognitive.
15:14Speaking about the future wars, German intelligence, German army were warning that Russia could attack NATO in the coming years
15:21by 2030.
15:22What do you think of this?
15:24Is it realistic?
15:25Do you see any changes inside Russia preparing for such an attack?
15:29Well, today I can tell you that, I mean, we have, we are, we are, we are prepared for that.
15:34I mean, we are prepared and we are updating our preparedness, our readiness.
15:37We have plans which are working, that's demonstrated by the four intercept, interception of the four missile coming from Iran
15:45toward NATO territory.
15:47I mean, 100% success.
15:49So, our plan are working.
15:50We are updating them.
15:52Then by 2030, they will be updated for the Russia 2030 situation.
15:58General Dragona, thank you very much for your time.
16:00General, no, I kill for less.
16:02Good.
16:05Thank you very much.
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