00:00The history of this award shades heavily to round one edge rushers,
00:08high-level draft picks who get after the quarterback.
00:12That is what you want to look for, okay?
00:14So if we were to say top 40 picks who are expected to get after the quarterback,
00:21David Bailey, I don't know about Arville Reese or Sonny Stiles.
00:27You'll notice Reuben Bain way up there, Akeem Mesidor, Malachi Lawrence,
00:35Keldrick Falk, TJ Parker, all right?
00:39There's a couple of hand-in-the-ground guys,
00:41but there is a reason that Bailey and Bain are the top two names that you see
00:48because they are supposed to be the ones getting after the quarterback here, Tom,
00:53and that's, again, why they start off the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.
00:57Yeah, making game-changing and massive game-impacting plays, sacks, forcing fumbles,
01:04some of those potentially turning into touchdowns, or what's going to set players apart?
01:10Now, it's obviously, as you said, skewed towards those type of players.
01:14A cornerback can be fantastic, and there are times that he is fantastic,
01:17but the eye-popping stats and game-changing plays aren't there necessarily for those cornerbacks or safeties.
01:25Having great coverage, deflecting passes doesn't really jump off the page when you see a guy has 6, 7, 8,
01:329, 10 sacks,
01:33whatever, it's going to be a couple of forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, etc., etc.
01:36So, it does skew heavily towards those edge rushers, and really, I think it will come down to those top
01:43two
01:44of Bailey and Bain, and it does not have to be from a good team.
01:47You know, we saw that last year with Carson Schlesinger winning.
01:50Like, they can be a very bad team, and this player is simply amazing, and they have a shot to
01:54win.
01:55And, you know, we were told Schlesinger was around 60-1, so, you know, I think part of it was
02:03Abdul Carter
02:04didn't have the season he was supposed to, and I think that's why Bailey and Bain are the starting point,
02:12but if they leave that door open, look, Sonny Stiles is going to catch eyes.
02:17If he's starting for the commander's defense, right, could he be a 100-tackle guy?
02:21I think Hakeem Mezidor is going to be interesting.
02:25Off of the edge in L.A., that's going to be a day number one starter.
02:28I think we can expect that.
02:30You know, if we get to a spot where, you know, I think Peter Woods is a little more interesting
02:38than at least the market says, and I'll just say, you know, I have no problem calling it out.
02:42Looks like every guy's numbers are better on Fandle than DK.
02:46Just 60-1 Peter Woods, Fandle, 30-1 DK.
02:49But if Peter Woods is playing side-by-side with Chris Jones, does that free up Peter Woods
02:54a little bit to make an impact on a Kansas City Chiefs football team?
02:58I think that's certainly possible as well, Tom.
03:01It is, and it really comes down to production because he could be the best defensive rookie,
03:08but if he just doesn't have the counting stats, you know, that will always hold him back.
03:11And this is what we say about, you know, offensive players as well.
03:14If he's there and he can make more impacts just because the defense is worried about the veteran player
03:20that is truly proven, therefore the rookie has a little bit more space.
03:24The rookie may make an impact in terms of underlying metrics, in terms of, you know, pass rush, win rate,
03:30but he may not have the sacks and the forced fumbles that other players have.
03:34And that's really where the discount has.
03:36But that's not a bad ticket to have.
03:38If you're getting it at a great price, knowing a player that can make an impact
03:41because there are other strong players on that defense, that's a worthwhile bet
03:45because you're making a bet on the talent and the scheme overall.
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