00:00Jonah Tong's first taste of the major leagues was a wake-up call. The stuff was there, but the results?
00:06Not good enough.
00:07Now in 2026, after four starts in AAA, the story is starting to change. But the real question is, is
00:15he actually getting better or just adjusting?
00:17Let's go.
00:47Look back at Jonah Tong's time in the majors last season, and it was a bit of an adventure for
00:53the Mets fans when they watched him come up to the big leagues last season.
00:57My question for you is, what went wrong during his time with the Mets in 2025?
01:02I mean, as far as statistically, you know, we can get into the emotions. Everybody's pointing to the emotions.
01:07Oh my God, look what he's doing on a mound. Statistically, pitching-wise, his walk rate, his walk per nine
01:14in those five starts,
01:15were his highest walk rate per nine since 2023 in the low minors in pro ball, his debut season.
01:22So the walk rate was even higher than usual, which for him, it can get pretty up and down even
01:28overall.
01:29But that's the thing. It was a very high walk rate.
01:32He was relying heavily on fastball changeup, fastball changeup.
01:37I know those are his two best pitches, but he has a slider and a curveball last season.
01:42He was not trusting it and throwing it in the games.
01:45Now, trying to defend Jonah Tong, the BABIP last year was 396 against him in those five games.
01:52So everything put into play was dropping.
01:55Again, I don't want to make excuses. Just want to bring that up.
01:57The other very important thing for someone like Jonah Tong, it was also his worst, lowest ground ball rate
02:04since his pro debut season in the low minors in 2023.
02:08So he wasn't getting enough ground balls.
02:12The walk rate was way too high.
02:14And that reliance on being a two-pitch pitcher in the major leagues, it was costing him.
02:19Everybody was seeing it.
02:20That's why the fan base was saying, I don't like it.
02:23He only throws two pitches.
02:24He has four, wasn't throwing it.
02:27It ruined him in a lot of starts.
02:29And then once he starts getting some of the walks, getting that kind of yips,
02:33it would snowball in those couple of outings in particular last year.
02:38The biggest issue was simple, Tong's fastball.
02:41Hitters weren't just making contact.
02:43When you look at the numbers, particularly the slugging percentage against Tong's fastball
02:48and the hard hit rate, it's clear to see that they were doing damage.
02:52But a question among many fans and the Mets is, why was this happening?
02:57Well, the reason comes down to two things, deception and predictability.
03:03Tong's fastball didn't have enough life.
03:05And when you pair that with a heavy usage rate, hitters could just sit on it and attack.
03:11At the major league level, Tong found that out real quick.
03:16And when the hitters sat on the fastball and attacked the contact, it was loud.
03:20Now, when you look at Tong's contact profile, that's not bad luck.
03:25That's a pitch mix that needs to evolve.
03:28Okay, Ernest.
03:29So let's take it to here, the present time in 2026.
03:33What have you seen from Tong in his first four starts in AAA this season?
03:38And are there real signs of adjustment with the Mets' young pitcher here in 2026?
03:45For better or worse, we're continuing to see Jonah Tong, but now back at the AAA level.
03:51His first start, he was getting up to 95.
03:54He mixed in all four of his pitches, trying to throw more of his pitches.
03:5973 pitches in four innings.
04:01He was pretty much dominant, but again, way too many pitches.
04:04His second start, everything fell apart, starting with command, of course, but also his fastball dropped.
04:11So in the first outing, he was getting 95+.
04:13Second outing in the first inning, 92-94, threw way too many pitches.
04:18He started getting tagged.
04:20Third start, best start of the season, five innings, seven strikeouts, only one hit allowed.
04:25He was getting 96-97 on his fastball, along with throwing all of his pitches.
04:32Fastball, cutter, slider, changeup, a few curveballs here and there.
04:37When he's throwing everything with enough command, he was dominating.
04:41Then, of course, came his latest fourth start.
04:45Four innings, 94-97 again.
04:48All through four innings, mixed every pitch, getting strikeouts on his cutter, his changeup.
04:53Fastball was up in the zone until the fifth inning.
04:57Everything just fell apart in his fourth start now in AAA.
05:01It looked like that high fastball, getting all the strikeouts in the fifth inning, started to lower.
05:07Lower, middle, middle, lower, middle.
05:10It was getting tanked for a couple of bats, a couple of home runs.
05:15Then a couple of the walks started.
05:16But again, four and two-thirds, 10Ks.
05:19But that fifth inning, the command dropped again.
05:22That could be the ongoing concern that people have for a guy, obviously, wanting to be a starting pitcher.
05:29Can he maintain?
05:30He was maintaining the velocity tonight in the fourth outing, but the command started to dip.
05:36And he can't do it based on his specific arsenal.
05:39He wasn't trusting his breaking stuff in that last inning.
05:43That's going to be an issue.
05:45But this is where things start to get interesting.
05:48Because in 2026, you're seeing some adjustments from Tong on the mound.
05:53The location in certain starts has been better.
05:57Some starts, we've seen less balls over the heart of the plate, not so much in others.
06:02More working of the edges or attempting to do so.
06:05And then the pitch mix overall, it's starting to evolve.
06:09Right now, Tong is trying at least to show less reliance on the fastball and more trust in his secondary
06:16pitches.
06:17However, this might be the biggest development.
06:19Tong has better pitches that he has been working on to throw at the opposition this year.
06:24The cutter and the slider.
06:26Now, both come out of the same tunnel, but they move just different enough to keep hitters guessing.
06:32And the development of those two pitches changes everything for the Mets prospect.
06:38Because now, hitters can't just sit fastball.
06:40And that makes Tong's entire arsenal much more effective.
06:45Despite the development in a couple of pitches, Tong is still not there yet.
06:49The fastball still needs to be located better.
06:52And the secondary pitches, they need to be trusted in big moments as he moves towards the future.
06:58Okay, Ernest, here we go.
07:00Now, this is the question I think Mets fans want to know when it comes to Jonah Tong.
07:04When you look at his long-term future, do you still see Jonah Tong as a starter?
07:10Or does his profile and the way he's pitching right now fit better with him in the bullpen?
07:15What do you say?
07:16I mean, still, still, at 22 years old, for someone who put up video game numbers at every minor league
07:23level,
07:24it's hard to say, well, let's go ahead and do it.
07:27Let him just have his two-pitch mix that are best for him and make him a reliever.
07:32I just don't see it overall.
07:34I think he could still be a starter.
07:37And I know people will say, well, we talked about things like the Tim Lynchicum comp,
07:41which is more about the delivery, the over-the-top, the legs swinging.
07:45And a lot of people say, well, there you go.
07:47Lynchicum, we know, died out and got a hurt arm later on.
07:51Here's the thing about Tim Lynchicum, by the way.
07:54He had a 10-year major league career.
07:56Seven of those seasons, 30-plus starts in all seven seasons.
08:01So it's not just about breaking down and you're going to worry about what happens in 10 years.
08:06The concerns, obviously, that are already being brought up in his recent start and even his second start.
08:12Will his fastball continue to fluctuate by the inning?
08:16Will the walks kind of get a case of the yips now and then?
08:20Because if you walk one or two guys in AA, he'll have the three-strikeout inning and get out of
08:25it.
08:25Won't work at the major league level.
08:27So can the mechanics hold?
08:30Is that the reason why his fastball was dropping in the fifth inning in his latest AAA outing?
08:36Those are going to be concerns for a starting pitcher, obviously.
08:39Even in today's baseball, you want guys going five to six-ish innings at least.
08:44So the concerns are health with the over-the-top, big Tim Lynchicum motion.
08:49Pitch command maintaining the velocity.
08:52Can he do all of those things while throwing that mix of four to five pitches?
08:58My feelings, my bias, I still stay at 22 years old, figure out the cutter, figure out the arm strengthening,
09:07getting into the fifth, sixth inning, maintaining that fastball.
09:10The stuff is still there, but respectfully and honestly, I continue to understand the concerns.
09:17Because if he can't always throw 95-96 with command, and he doesn't trust the secondary pitches in the later
09:25innings,
09:26it's going to always be a problem when you start getting tagged on the fastball being too flat at the
09:33end of outings.
09:34So this is where the conversation around the Mets' righty gets interesting.
09:38If the pitch mix comes together, he can start.
09:41But if it doesn't, he can still be a very valuable piece out of the bullpen.
09:46This is what development looks like for young pitchers.
09:49It's not always perfect, and it's not always linear.
09:52What we are looking for is progress in the journey.
09:55We know that Tong has the stuff, but right now in 2026, it's all about execution.
10:01Tong is only 22 years old.
10:03So if you're excited about his potential, it's completely understandable.
10:07As the talent and the tools, they're there.
10:09However, if he's going to succeed at the major league level, it's simply going to come down to adjustments.
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