00:00Amidst ongoing war and political tension with the US, Iran's Sporting Minister Ahmad
00:04Donyamali has said that the country almost certainly won't be participating at the World
00:08Cup this summer.
00:09US President Donald Trump has said he doesn't believe it is appropriate for Iran to be there
00:13for their own life and safety.
00:15So what happens next?
00:17From potential replacements to an utterly chaotic knock-on effect, I'm Matt Froelich
00:21from 442 and here's what happens if Iran don't go to the World Cup.
00:25And Iran have won it with virtually the final kick of the match.
00:30Now before we get onto the topic of who replaces Iran and why or how, we've got to quickly take
00:35a look at where things stand in correlation to FIFA's official World Cup regulations.
00:39So according to Article 6 of the regulations, there's basically two infringements that could
00:44see Iran not participate.
00:46First, there's an irresistible force or unforeseen event that sees a team withdraw or sees a match
00:51abandoned or unable to go ahead.
00:52And secondly, there's the case of a team choosing to withdraw or being excluded from the World Cup.
00:58To put that into context of what's going on now, whilst the Iranian government has expressed a
01:02desire to boycott America, have asked to play their group games in Mexico, a request that's been
01:07denied, FIFA rules also strictly forbid political interference in sport, threatening heavy fines
01:13and long-term bans if a team pulls out for non-sporting reasons.
01:17So basically, whether Iran choose to withdraw or are forced to withdraw, the outcome of both
01:21these infringements is the same. FIFA having the final say on the matter and course of action,
01:26including the option to then bring in another team to replace Iran.
01:29With so many teams desperate to be part of the biggest tournament in footballing history,
01:34I don't think FIFA will be struggling to find a replacement.
01:36But who will it be?
01:38Well, there's basically three schools of thought.
01:40The first and most sporting or obvious scenario is the promotion of Iraq.
01:45They were the best performing team in the Asian Football Confederation that didn't
01:49secure an automatic spot. If FIFA want to maintain the balance of representatives from
01:53each confederation, ensuring Asia doesn't lose a slot it earned on the pitch, Iraq is the logical
01:58choice. However, they are currently scheduled to play in the Intercontinental Playoff against
02:02Bolivia on March 31st, the winner of which will claim a spot at the World Cup.
02:07So, if Iran goes through of their own accord by winning this playoff, it leaves us with option
02:13two, which is where things get a little bit more confusing. If we go one rung down the ladder to
02:19who
02:19Iraq beat to even get to that Intercontinental final in the first place, you'd end up with the
02:24UAE. Again, it would mean retaining an Asian Football Confederation slot and the makeup of the tournament
02:30would stay the same. But is that fair to the South American Confederation, whose team lost to Iraq in the
02:36final playoff? It would mean that UAE effectively don't play the Intercontinental Final or jump
02:41straight to the World Cup on some sort of golden ticket. Maybe they'll play the playoff final again,
02:46but with UAE this time. It opens up a whole new lineage almost of sporting merit, where if you
02:52keep going down to the next best Asian team, at what point do you give the chance to a higher
02:57place team from South America or Africa or anywhere else? Well, it leads me nicely to the third option,
03:04the one that is a little bit out there and would definitely ruffle a few feathers. And that
03:08is the introduction of Italy. Now, I don't want to talk about football like a business,
03:13but let's be honest, it just is. And from a commercial standpoint, putting my commercial hat
03:17on, the absence of Italy is relatively big. They are a football-loving nation with the means to
03:22broadcast the matches all over the country. The players they have in their squad are some of the
03:27biggest names in football and people would pay to watch that. And there's a massive Italian-American
03:31community in the US who I'm sure would be more than likely to engage in a tournament should
03:36Italy be involved. Right, commercial hat off. And on footballing terms, they are the highest ranked
03:41team in the world to miss out on automatic qualification. Of course, that is their fault,
03:46and they can rectify it by winning the playoffs. But even if they don't, there might be another way in
03:52for them. In other sports, there is such a thing as a wild card or a lucky loser. You see
03:56it a lot in
03:57tennis where the highest ranked eliminated team or person is brought in to fill a void,
04:01often due to withdrawal through injury or other circumstances. So it's not unheard of. And while
04:07this would cause an absolute uproar in Asia, especially who would argue, rightly so, that
04:11the spot belongs to their confederation, the temptation for FIFA to parachute the Azuri into
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05:39point? Back to the video. So at this point, you might be asking yourself, has this ever happened
05:43before in a World Cup? What is the precedent for it? Well, so close to the World Cup, no,
05:49there is no precedent. However, in 1950, there was an absolute scramble to get teams involved,
05:54which ultimately didn't work. At every stage, from the initial qualifiers to post qualifiers,
05:59then before the draw to after the draw, teams withdrew, citing a whole host of reasons. For some,
06:04it was the cost of travel. Others, it was the distance between matches in Brazil. And for some,
06:09a World Cup just wasn't really a priority in a world where most countries were rebuilding after
06:13World War II. So a bizarre tournament went ahead with only 13 teams, and one group only had two
06:19teams. And it ended up, all in all, with a victory for Uruguay. Now, obviously, things were a little
06:24bit different these days, especially given the financial benefits of participating in such a
06:28tournament. But there is a more recent international tournament where we can draw some parallels from.
06:33The European Championships in 1992, where Denmark were called up in place of Yugoslavia,
06:38who were facing UN sanctions after the violence that came with the disbanding of multiple countries
06:42in the region. And what happened? Well, Denmark went on to win the whole damn tournament. Can you
06:48imagine the scenes this time around if the replacement team wins it, or even has a big impact on
06:53proceedings by beating someone unexpectedly? Honestly, at this point, everything is so chaotic,
06:59I wouldn't rule out anyone from winning the tournament, no matter how they qualified. But if out of
07:04all of these scenarios, Iraq, UAE, or Italy, the Italian one is the one that seems the most unfair and
07:10annoying, just wait till you hear about the potential knock-on effects for the group and the wider
07:14tournament. So, we'll start with the group, where dropping into the Intergroup G would see them
07:19alongside another of Europe's best sides in Belgium. And more than that, would also
07:23consequentially create one of the most difficult fixtures on paper in the whole group stage of the
07:29tournament, as there is only three places between 9th place Belgium and 12th place Italy in the FIFA
07:34rankings. They've basically created a, I'd say, quarter-final worthy game in the group stage.
07:41Now, needless to say, I can't see that decision going down too well in the Belgian camp. It's not
07:45because they were hoping for an easier game versus Iran, but it's because that was how the draw was
07:50made fair and square. Each team was in Group G because they earned it. So, throwing that all out
07:54sort of puts the whole thing into disrepute. Also, maybe looking a little too far ahead, it's uncertain how
08:01much effect this would have, but it actually would overpower one side of the draw with another big
08:06European team in there. So, what's the other option? Well, you move them. You move Italy into a
08:11different group, one that currently has no European teams. For example, they could move Italy into a
08:16group with Mexico or Argentina and shift a CONCACAF or CONMEBOL team into Group G to face Belgium,
08:22which would be an absolute logistical nightmare. I mean, thousands of fans have already bought tickets
08:28for matches based on the current draw, not to mention hotels, travel plans and the like. If
08:32FIFA start moving teams between groups 60 days before kickoff, they're just asking for trouble.
08:37It's the same reason they rejected the request for Iran to move all of their group matches to Mexico,
08:41because there's a million contracts between stadiums, suppliers, workers and all sorts
08:45that would just be thrown into complete disarray and it's not what the organizers need right now.
08:50So, in all honesty, this paradox is the primary reason that many believe FIFA will stick with an
08:54Asian confederation replacement like Iraq, as it's the only way to keep the current group structure
08:58and ticket sales intact without violating absolutely everybody and everything in the process.
09:04The date to look out for now, if nothing happens in between, is the 30th of April at the FIFA
09:08Congress, where this ruling will become official. The Iranian boycott of the competition will be set
09:13in stone and FIFA will declare Iran's spot vacant. That's what happens from then on,
09:18we'll have to wait and see. But what do you think? Let me know in the comments which
09:21option you prefer. Make sure you subscribe for loads more 442 content. And until next time,
09:25I'll see you in the next one.
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