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What happens if Iran don't go to the FIFA World Cup 2026? From direct replacements to an outside choice, FIFA has the final say and it's fair to say not everyone will be pleased.
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00:00Amidst ongoing war and political tension with the US, Iran's Sporting Minister Ahmad
00:04Donyamali has said that the country almost certainly won't be participating at the World
00:08Cup this summer.
00:09US President Donald Trump has said he doesn't believe it is appropriate for Iran to be there
00:13for their own life and safety.
00:15So what happens next?
00:17From potential replacements to an utterly chaotic knock-on effect, I'm Matt Froelich
00:21from 442 and here's what happens if Iran don't go to the World Cup.
00:25And Iran have won it with virtually the final kick of the match.
00:30Now before we get onto the topic of who replaces Iran and why or how, we've got to quickly take
00:35a look at where things stand in correlation to FIFA's official World Cup regulations.
00:39So according to Article 6 of the regulations, there's basically two infringements that could
00:44see Iran not participate.
00:46First, there's an irresistible force or unforeseen event that sees a team withdraw or sees a match
00:51abandoned or unable to go ahead.
00:52And secondly, there's the case of a team choosing to withdraw or being excluded from the World Cup.
00:58To put that into context of what's going on now, whilst the Iranian government has expressed a
01:02desire to boycott America, have asked to play their group games in Mexico, a request that's been
01:07denied, FIFA rules also strictly forbid political interference in sport, threatening heavy fines
01:13and long-term bans if a team pulls out for non-sporting reasons.
01:17So basically, whether Iran choose to withdraw or are forced to withdraw, the outcome of both
01:21these infringements is the same. FIFA having the final say on the matter and course of action,
01:26including the option to then bring in another team to replace Iran.
01:29With so many teams desperate to be part of the biggest tournament in footballing history,
01:34I don't think FIFA will be struggling to find a replacement.
01:36But who will it be?
01:38Well, there's basically three schools of thought.
01:40The first and most sporting or obvious scenario is the promotion of Iraq.
01:45They were the best performing team in the Asian Football Confederation that didn't
01:49secure an automatic spot. If FIFA want to maintain the balance of representatives from
01:53each confederation, ensuring Asia doesn't lose a slot it earned on the pitch, Iraq is the logical
01:58choice. However, they are currently scheduled to play in the Intercontinental Playoff against
02:02Bolivia on March 31st, the winner of which will claim a spot at the World Cup.
02:07So, if Iran goes through of their own accord by winning this playoff, it leaves us with option
02:13two, which is where things get a little bit more confusing. If we go one rung down the ladder to
02:19who
02:19Iraq beat to even get to that Intercontinental final in the first place, you'd end up with the
02:24UAE. Again, it would mean retaining an Asian Football Confederation slot and the makeup of the tournament
02:30would stay the same. But is that fair to the South American Confederation, whose team lost to Iraq in the
02:36final playoff? It would mean that UAE effectively don't play the Intercontinental Final or jump
02:41straight to the World Cup on some sort of golden ticket. Maybe they'll play the playoff final again,
02:46but with UAE this time. It opens up a whole new lineage almost of sporting merit, where if you
02:52keep going down to the next best Asian team, at what point do you give the chance to a higher
02:57place team from South America or Africa or anywhere else? Well, it leads me nicely to the third option,
03:04the one that is a little bit out there and would definitely ruffle a few feathers. And that
03:08is the introduction of Italy. Now, I don't want to talk about football like a business,
03:13but let's be honest, it just is. And from a commercial standpoint, putting my commercial hat
03:17on, the absence of Italy is relatively big. They are a football-loving nation with the means to
03:22broadcast the matches all over the country. The players they have in their squad are some of the
03:27biggest names in football and people would pay to watch that. And there's a massive Italian-American
03:31community in the US who I'm sure would be more than likely to engage in a tournament should
03:36Italy be involved. Right, commercial hat off. And on footballing terms, they are the highest ranked
03:41team in the world to miss out on automatic qualification. Of course, that is their fault,
03:46and they can rectify it by winning the playoffs. But even if they don't, there might be another way in
03:52for them. In other sports, there is such a thing as a wild card or a lucky loser. You see
03:56it a lot in
03:57tennis where the highest ranked eliminated team or person is brought in to fill a void,
04:01often due to withdrawal through injury or other circumstances. So it's not unheard of. And while
04:07this would cause an absolute uproar in Asia, especially who would argue, rightly so, that
04:11the spot belongs to their confederation, the temptation for FIFA to parachute the Azuri into
04:17a 48-team tournament for the sake of global viewership is a very real thing. Video aside for a
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05:39point? Back to the video. So at this point, you might be asking yourself, has this ever happened
05:43before in a World Cup? What is the precedent for it? Well, so close to the World Cup, no,
05:49there is no precedent. However, in 1950, there was an absolute scramble to get teams involved,
05:54which ultimately didn't work. At every stage, from the initial qualifiers to post qualifiers,
05:59then before the draw to after the draw, teams withdrew, citing a whole host of reasons. For some,
06:04it was the cost of travel. Others, it was the distance between matches in Brazil. And for some,
06:09a World Cup just wasn't really a priority in a world where most countries were rebuilding after
06:13World War II. So a bizarre tournament went ahead with only 13 teams, and one group only had two
06:19teams. And it ended up, all in all, with a victory for Uruguay. Now, obviously, things were a little
06:24bit different these days, especially given the financial benefits of participating in such a
06:28tournament. But there is a more recent international tournament where we can draw some parallels from.
06:33The European Championships in 1992, where Denmark were called up in place of Yugoslavia,
06:38who were facing UN sanctions after the violence that came with the disbanding of multiple countries
06:42in the region. And what happened? Well, Denmark went on to win the whole damn tournament. Can you
06:48imagine the scenes this time around if the replacement team wins it, or even has a big impact on
06:53proceedings by beating someone unexpectedly? Honestly, at this point, everything is so chaotic,
06:59I wouldn't rule out anyone from winning the tournament, no matter how they qualified. But if out of
07:04all of these scenarios, Iraq, UAE, or Italy, the Italian one is the one that seems the most unfair and
07:10annoying, just wait till you hear about the potential knock-on effects for the group and the wider
07:14tournament. So, we'll start with the group, where dropping into the Intergroup G would see them
07:19alongside another of Europe's best sides in Belgium. And more than that, would also
07:23consequentially create one of the most difficult fixtures on paper in the whole group stage of the
07:29tournament, as there is only three places between 9th place Belgium and 12th place Italy in the FIFA
07:34rankings. They've basically created a, I'd say, quarter-final worthy game in the group stage.
07:41Now, needless to say, I can't see that decision going down too well in the Belgian camp. It's not
07:45because they were hoping for an easier game versus Iran, but it's because that was how the draw was
07:50made fair and square. Each team was in Group G because they earned it. So, throwing that all out
07:54sort of puts the whole thing into disrepute. Also, maybe looking a little too far ahead, it's uncertain how
08:01much effect this would have, but it actually would overpower one side of the draw with another big
08:06European team in there. So, what's the other option? Well, you move them. You move Italy into a
08:11different group, one that currently has no European teams. For example, they could move Italy into a
08:16group with Mexico or Argentina and shift a CONCACAF or CONMEBOL team into Group G to face Belgium,
08:22which would be an absolute logistical nightmare. I mean, thousands of fans have already bought tickets
08:28for matches based on the current draw, not to mention hotels, travel plans and the like. If
08:32FIFA start moving teams between groups 60 days before kickoff, they're just asking for trouble.
08:37It's the same reason they rejected the request for Iran to move all of their group matches to Mexico,
08:41because there's a million contracts between stadiums, suppliers, workers and all sorts
08:45that would just be thrown into complete disarray and it's not what the organizers need right now.
08:50So, in all honesty, this paradox is the primary reason that many believe FIFA will stick with an
08:54Asian confederation replacement like Iraq, as it's the only way to keep the current group structure
08:58and ticket sales intact without violating absolutely everybody and everything in the process.
09:04The date to look out for now, if nothing happens in between, is the 30th of April at the FIFA
09:08Congress, where this ruling will become official. The Iranian boycott of the competition will be set
09:13in stone and FIFA will declare Iran's spot vacant. That's what happens from then on,
09:18we'll have to wait and see. But what do you think? Let me know in the comments which
09:21option you prefer. Make sure you subscribe for loads more 442 content. And until next time,
09:25I'll see you in the next one.
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