#video #short #film #movie
Category
🎥
Short filmTranscript
00:00NATO is at breaking point.
00:03The most successful defence alliance in history
00:06risks losing support from its biggest backer, the US.
00:10And other members have lost trust in the United States,
00:13putting the collective of 32 countries on rocky ground.
00:17Their pact to come to each other's aid if under attack
00:20is based on trust.
00:22And there's very little of that going around right now.
00:25Elizabeth Braw can tell us more about what that means
00:28and where we're headed.
00:30She's from the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
00:33at the Atlantic Council, an American think tank
00:35that promotes US leadership and transatlantic ties.
00:39Elizabeth, since US President Donald Trump's first term,
00:43he's complained European nations don't pull their weight.
00:45He said they don't have his back in the Iran war.
00:49NATO is undergoing significant pressure to adapt to his demands.
00:54Is the alliance in for some big changes, do you think?
01:02It's not only in for some big changes.
01:05The changes are already happening because, as you said,
01:09the alliance's most important, most powerful member
01:13is in the person of Donald Trump questioning the nature of the alliance,
01:19the value of the alliance.
01:21And the more President Trump keeps speaking or doubting NATO as an alliance,
01:30doubting the other member states' commitment,
01:34then the more he does that, the more he weakens NATO.
01:38And even though the other member states are committed,
01:42even though they have no beef, fundamental beef with the alliance,
01:47every time he talks about it, by discrediting it, he weakens it.
01:51And by extension, changes NATO as an alliance.
01:58That doesn't mean it's dead or that it's destined to die.
02:02It just means it's weakened.
02:04And that is regretful.
02:08That said, Elizabeth, I think it's interesting then
02:10to have a listen to NATO Chief Mark Rotter,
02:13because he's been echoing some of Trump's woes with the group.
02:18So business as usual will not meet this moment.
02:22And allow me here to applaud President Trump
02:26for his bold leadership and vision.
02:28When it came time to provide the logistical and other support
02:32the United States needed in Iran,
02:34some allies were a bit slow, to say the least.
02:39Nearly without exception,
02:41allies are doing everything the United States is asking.
02:44They have heard and are responding to President Trump's requests.
02:49NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans,
02:51but also to protect the United States.
02:54So Trump has managed to change NATO already.
02:59What else does he want from NATO, do you think?
03:06He wants the other allies to do what America needs them to do.
03:13Now, until now, until the Iran war,
03:17he hadn't made specific requests.
03:19His initial complaint about the other member states,
03:24most of the other member states,
03:26was that they didn't spend enough on their own defense.
03:28And it's interesting to hear how that narrative has evolved over the years
03:33from the time of his first administration.
03:36He did have a point that they weren't spending enough on their defense.
03:40But I think already then,
03:42it wasn't really clear whether he really wanted them
03:48to spend more on their defense
03:49and as a result to strengthen NATO,
03:53or whether it was just something that he wanted to complain about
03:56because he felt America was being taken advantage of.
03:59So it's not clear whether in his first term,
04:02his objective really was to strengthen NATO
04:05or simply to complain about the other NATO member states.
04:12Not all of them, once again,
04:14not all of them were deficient when it comes to spending.
04:18A number of them, including Estonia, for example,
04:20were spending the required 2% and even on top of that.
04:25But that was his complaint in the first term.
04:28Now, in the second term, as we know,
04:31his narrative has moved from defense spending
04:35to complaining that the other member states
04:39haven't supported the United States in Iran.
04:41Now, it's worth remembering
04:43that NATO is a defensive alliance that exists
04:46to defend its member states when they are attacked.
04:51What we have in Iran is the United States
04:54went to war against Iran.
04:56So it's in that context, the aggressor.
05:00So there is no requirement on the other NATO member states
05:03to support America.
05:05But he, for reasons that remain inexplicable,
05:10seems to expect other NATO member states
05:14states to come to America's aid in this war.
05:17But he's been clear about his threats, hasn't he?
05:20I mean, he's been threatening the whole way
05:22to pull the US out of NATO.
05:25But what's more likely, the US pulling out
05:28or disengaging in some way?
05:33Disengaging, for sure.
05:35If only because leaving NATO
05:39would require congressional approval.
05:41And that would be extremely hard to get,
05:43even as Congress currently stands,
05:48with Republicans being very loyal to President Trump.
05:55There is enough support for NATO
05:57within the Republican Party,
05:58which we should remember has always been
06:01the party of strong defense,
06:04of strong transatlantic ties.
06:05There is enough of that left in the Republican Party.
06:08And of course, also among the Democrats,
06:11that a withdrawal from NATO
06:15would not be likely in Congress.
06:17So what President Trump can instead do
06:20and is probably likely to do
06:24is to have America do less for NATO.
06:30And that would be incredibly damaging.
06:32We should remember that even though
06:35he has complained about NATO for a long time,
06:38America has remained involved
06:39and did remain involved in his first term.
06:42But now, with him being so upset
06:44about Iran and even mentioning Greenland,
06:50essentially mentioning that
06:52if you don't support us over Iran,
06:54we may return to the idea of Greenland.
06:59And so with that being the case,
07:02I think his disappointment or anger
07:05with the other NATO allies
07:07will at the very least lead
07:09to less US engagement in NATO.
07:12And that is a highly regrettable thing
07:16because now, as I think nobody needs to be reminded,
07:20now is a very perilous time
07:22in international relations.
07:26And it's a perilous time
07:27for every single NATO member state.
07:29And Elizabeth, when you say
07:30that would be extremely damaging,
07:33what would that look like in real terms?
07:41So we're at the risk of engaging
07:43in hypothetical scenarios.
07:45But let's say,
07:47let's just look at what's already happening.
07:49The fact that President Trump
07:53discredits NATO on a regular basis,
07:57floats the idea of the United States
07:59leaving NATO,
08:00floats the idea of an exing Greenland,
08:03all of that emboldens Russia
08:05because what deters Russia
08:07is a strong NATO
08:08where everybody,
08:09every member is committed
08:10to collective defense.
08:12If you don't keep you as NATO
08:15and its 32 member states,
08:17if you don't keep constantly signaling that,
08:19then you are signaling
08:20the opposite to Russia,
08:23namely that NATO is weakened,
08:25that it's divided,
08:26and that provides an opening for Russia
08:28should it wish to harm
08:31one or more NATO member states.
08:33The other thing I wanted to bring up
08:35was that this isn't just about the US
08:38because other NATO members
08:40are losing trust in the US itself
08:42as a partner.
08:43Where does that leave the alliance?
08:50It's obvious for, I think,
08:53the whole world to see
08:54that the United States
08:56has been very dismissive
08:58of European countries and Canada
09:00and that has resulted in
09:03the public in European countries
09:05and Canada
09:06feeling rather hurt
09:10and losing faith
09:13in the United States.
09:14We have seen, for example,
09:16a Danish app
09:17called Non-USA
09:19that allows users
09:20to see what products
09:22are made by companies
09:26based in the US
09:28or made by companies
09:29that are owned
09:30by American companies.
09:32That app has become
09:33incredibly popular
09:35because Danes
09:35are losing,
09:38falling out of love
09:39with the United States
09:41and that is just
09:43such a tragedy
09:45because the transatlantic link
09:47has lasted for decades
09:49through the darkest decades
09:51of the Cold War
09:52and after that too.
09:55But that bond
09:56is under heavy strain now
09:59and voters here around Europe
10:01are saying,
10:02well, America is not
10:03what it used to be
10:04and with voters
10:06losing faith
10:08in that transatlantic bond.
10:11Politicians
10:12obviously have to balance
10:14that on one hand
10:17with keeping President Trump
10:18happy on the other hand,
10:20but it's regardless
10:23which side
10:25has more weight
10:29at any given moment,
10:30the fact that politicians
10:31in European countries
10:32and Canada
10:33even have to choose
10:34between their electorate
10:36and keeping Donald Trump
10:37happy is a tragedy
10:38and weakens NATO.
10:41But Elizabeth,
10:43isn't change
10:44sometimes a good thing?
10:45I mean,
10:45even the head of the group
10:46admits it's time for change.
10:48Have a listen to this.
10:51This alliance
10:52is not whistling
10:53past the graveyard.
10:55We are in a period
10:56of profound change
10:57in the transatlantic alliance.
11:00Europe is assuming
11:01a greater
11:01and fairer share
11:03of the task
11:03we're providing
11:04for its conventional defence.
11:06And from that,
11:07there will be
11:08no going back
11:09and nor should there be.
11:11This is a move
11:12from unhealthy codependence
11:13to a transatlantic alliance
11:15grounded in true partnership.
11:17So is that
11:18the solution?
11:20No more codependencies?
11:27Mark Rutter
11:28is caught
11:31between a rock
11:32and a hard place.
11:33He has to
11:34keep the alliance
11:35together
11:35while also keeping
11:37Donald Trump happy.
11:38So that's
11:39when he speaks
11:40that is
11:41the dilemma
11:42or the conflict
11:43that his words
11:44reflect.
11:45It is clear
11:46that NATO
11:47can change,
11:48can evolve
11:49and so forth.
11:49And we should remember
11:51that on the level
11:53of civil servants
11:55of the armed forces,
11:57NATO still works
11:58extremely well.
11:59But all of that
12:01is undermined
12:03by public pronouncements,
12:06by leaders
12:07doubting the value
12:09of NATO.
12:09And I say leaders
12:12in plural,
12:13but really
12:13it is Donald Trump.
12:14So what is already
12:17happening within NATO
12:18is that European
12:19countries are
12:20assuming more
12:21responsibility.
12:22Yes,
12:23more senior
12:25positions
12:26within the
12:27military structure
12:28are being taken
12:29over by Europeans.
12:30And that is
12:32a good thing
12:33and reflects
12:33the reality.
12:35An interesting
12:36aspect to consider
12:37though
12:37is the fact
12:38that the United
12:39States has
12:40for all these
12:41years,
12:42since NATO
12:43was founded,
12:43enjoyed
12:44the unchallenged
12:46leadership position
12:48within NATO.
12:49And,
12:51for example,
12:51Secure,
12:52the Supreme
12:52Allied Command
12:53of Europe
12:53has always
12:54been an American.
12:55Now,
12:55if European
12:56countries
12:57assume more
12:58responsibility,
12:59that also means
13:00that America
13:01won't have that
13:03unquestioned,
13:04unchallenged
13:05leadership role
13:07within NATO
13:07with essentially
13:08the United
13:09States
13:09having the
13:10strongest
13:13position,
13:13the most say,
13:15it will still
13:16be a very
13:17strong country,
13:17but not that
13:21unchallenged
13:21leader.
13:22And that
13:24is a reality
13:25that the
13:26U.S.
13:27would need
13:27to get used
13:28to.
13:29And it
13:30is very,
13:31not just
13:32very nice,
13:33it is
13:33indispensable,
13:35even if you're
13:36a major country,
13:37to have a group
13:37of nations
13:38that support
13:39you not just
13:40militarily,
13:41but diplomatically,
13:42politically,
13:43in different
13:44undertakings.
13:44And that is
13:45what the United
13:46States has
13:47received through
13:47NATO.
13:48If it weakens
13:49its commitment
13:50to NATO,
13:51which is
13:52likely to happen
13:53and already
13:54beginning to
13:54happen,
13:55then that
13:56support is
13:57likely to
13:58weaken too.
13:59Well,
14:00Trump's fury
14:00with NATO
14:01allies is
14:02binding them
14:03together against
14:04him.
14:05Let's have a
14:06listen to this
14:07soundbite.
14:07Germany is
14:08NATO's
14:08largest
14:09defense
14:09spender
14:10here in
14:10Europe.
14:11Here's
14:12the German
14:12leader.
14:15We want
14:16to ensure
14:16that this
14:17war,
14:18which has
14:18become a
14:18transatlantic
14:19stress test,
14:20does not
14:21place any
14:21further strain
14:22on relations
14:23between the
14:23United States
14:24and its
14:25European NATO
14:25partners.
14:27Whilst I
14:28fully understand
14:28the calls
14:29for a clear
14:29stance,
14:30let me say
14:30this here
14:31and now.
14:31We do
14:32not want,
14:33I do not
14:33want a split
14:34in NATO.
14:35NATO is a
14:36guarantor of
14:37our security,
14:38including and
14:39above all in
14:40Europe.
14:40We must
14:41continue to
14:42keep a cool
14:42head.
14:45And let's
14:46listen to what
14:46Trump had to
14:47say a few
14:48days ago.
14:49When I
14:50heard the
14:51head of
14:51Germany say
14:52this is
14:54not our
14:54war about
14:56Iran, I
14:58said, well,
14:59Ukraine's not
14:59our war.
15:00We helped,
15:01but Ukraine's
15:01not our war.
15:02I thought it
15:02was a very
15:02inappropriate
15:03statement to
15:04make.
15:05So Merz just
15:06said cool
15:07heads, but
15:09he and other
15:10NATO allies
15:11clearly angered
15:12Trump by not
15:12supporting his
15:13war against
15:14Iran.
15:15Where does
15:16that leave
15:18us?
15:21In a very
15:22difficult
15:23place.
15:24Trump
15:27confuses two
15:28different kinds
15:29of war.
15:30Ukraine was
15:31invaded.
15:32Under the
15:32United Nations
15:33Charter, other
15:35UN member
15:36states have the
15:37responsibility to
15:38support Ukraine.
15:39It has nothing to
15:40do with NATO.
15:42Now NATO has
15:42stepped in and
15:44been part of
15:45that group
15:46supporting
15:47Ukraine, but
15:48it has nothing
15:48to do with
15:49NATO as
15:50such, because
15:51Ukraine is not
15:52a member of
15:52NATO.
15:53And on that
15:54note, it is
15:54regrettable that
15:56so many
15:56countries around
15:57the world have
15:58declined or
16:00refrained from
16:01supporting Ukraine.
16:02It is their
16:03obligation under
16:03the United
16:04Nations
16:04Charter, which
16:05they have
16:06conveniently
16:07forgotten or
16:09ignored.
16:09then when it
16:11comes to
16:11Iran, it
16:13is a war of
16:13aggression.
16:14How can
16:14NATO member
16:15states, or
16:17how can
16:18NATO, which
16:18is a
16:19defensive
16:19alliance,
16:20support a
16:22war of
16:22aggression?
16:23It doesn't
16:24work.
16:24And not
16:25only is
16:25NATO a
16:26defensive
16:26alliance, it's
16:27an alliance
16:28that defends
16:28its member
16:29states against
16:30aggression from
16:31other countries.
16:33But all of
16:34this has been
16:35explained to
16:36Donald Trump.
16:39he chooses
16:41not to
16:42accept that
16:43state of
16:44affairs.
16:45And I
16:46don't think
16:47anybody can
16:48explain it.
16:48I certainly
16:49hope Mark
16:50Rutter has
16:51explained to
16:52him how
16:52NATO works.
16:53But he
16:56clearly doesn't
16:58want to
17:00understand or
17:01accept how
17:02NATO is
17:03set up.
17:04and if
17:05Mark
17:06Rutter can't
17:06explain it or
17:07isn't willing to
17:08explain it, how
17:09is anybody else
17:09going to
17:10explain it?
17:11I'm sure our
17:12viewers are
17:13thankful that
17:13you could
17:13explain it.
17:15Elizabeth, to
17:16be fair, though,
17:17at the end of
17:17the day, could
17:18all this
17:18pressure from
17:19Trump create
17:20a stronger
17:21NATO?
17:27Well, I
17:28would like to
17:28hear from your
17:29viewers how it
17:29might produce a
17:30stronger NATO.
17:32So I think a
17:33stronger NATO
17:34is a NATO in
17:35which all
17:36member states
17:37are fully
17:38committed to
17:39the alliance.
17:40And yes, NATO,
17:41like any other
17:42organization, has
17:43various weak
17:44points.
17:45But then you
17:46articulate those
17:49off-camera in
17:51candid discussions
17:53between leaders,
17:54between officials.
17:55And that is what
17:56has been done
17:56for decades.
17:57you don't wash
18:01your dirty
18:01laundry in
18:02public.
18:03And if you
18:04do so, you
18:05weaken the
18:06alliance.
18:07And there
18:09is only one
18:10benefit from
18:11it.
18:12And that is
18:13that Russia and
18:14other adversaries
18:15sense an
18:15opportunity,
18:16sense a power
18:17growing every
18:18time you
18:19criticize the
18:20alliance in
18:20public.
18:21And that is
18:22regrettable because
18:23NATO has been
18:24incredibly successful.
18:26It has been
18:26successful because
18:27all its member
18:28states have been
18:28committed, even
18:30in the countries
18:30that don't really
18:31get along, like
18:32Greece and
18:33Turkey.
18:34All of them
18:35have been
18:36committed.
18:36They haven't
18:36always been
18:37agreed in
18:38private, but
18:39in public, they
18:40have buried the
18:42hatchet and been
18:43committed members
18:44of NATO.
18:45It is such,
18:46it's incredibly
18:48regrettable and
18:49such a tragedy
18:49that that unity
18:51is breaking now
18:52that we need it
18:53more than ever.
18:55Elizabeth, thank
18:56you so much for
18:56spending so much
18:57of your night
18:58with us.
18:58Hope to talk
18:59again soon.
19:03And what do
19:04you think?
19:05Will Trump's
19:05criticism create
19:06a stronger NATO?
19:08Let us know in
19:08the comments.
19:09I'm Ben
19:09Fasulin.
19:10See you again
19:11soon.
Comments