00:00I think Donald Trump's been looking forward to try to figure out how to get out of this situation.
00:03I think that's really now the real goal here, is how do we get out of a war that is,
00:09you know,
00:09becoming very costly, disproportionate to U.S. interests.
00:22You know, at a military level, it is clear that the United States and Israel have excelled at a tactical
00:28level.
00:28They have sunk much of the Navy, although that was not the primary threat.
00:32They have done, you know, some significant damage to its missile capabilities and capacity, and that is real.
00:39But it's sort of a similar story from, you know, the Afghanistan war or the Iraq war,
00:43in that you can win at the tactical level, but that doesn't mean that you actually win at a strategic
00:50level.
01:09He believed that sort of this massive display of air power would be very, you know, would be, have a
01:15huge impact on Iranian society itself.
01:19And I think he also believed that air power was going to be so lethal and effective that it would
01:22really eliminate Iranian capabilities.
01:25He's learned, you know, rather quickly that, in fact, it hasn't achieved any of that.
01:50One of the things that I find the most troubling about this war is that the administration seems to have
01:55believed incorrectly that air power is cheap and highly effective to use.
02:02You know, that they really leaned into sort of this false promise about what air power can achieve.
02:07And I think it's unfortunate that it seems like his first year in office, Donald Trump, through a series of
02:12interventions, you know, learned the wrong lessons about air power,
02:16which made him, I think, more ambitious going into this operation.
02:33And so I think the strategy here is really to try to, where possible, gain some military leverage through threats
02:39and then to try to really negotiate some kind of exit.
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