- 18 hours ago
The guns may have paused, but the real battle is just getting started. Join us as we break down the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, what both sides are claiming, and what it all means for America's standing in the world — from shifting alliances with Israel, Pakistan, China, and Russia, to the domestic political fallout hitting Washington right now.
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00:00Iran has achieved a great victory and forced the criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.
00:30At the same time, the United States may still argue that it won the broader war by weakening
00:34Iran's military position, pressuring the regime and sending a message to rivals like
00:39China and Russia.
00:40In other words, Washington and Tehran may not have been fighting the same war in the first
00:45place.
00:46So with that in mind, let's break down what this ceasefire actually says about power,
00:51perception and America's place in the world.
00:54He says, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks
01:01Iran can credibly claim it won the immediate showdown.
01:05If you're judging by optics, Iran has a real argument.
01:08The Islamic Republic didn't collapse, it didn't surrender and it didn't accept a neat cinematic
01:13defeat.
01:14Just an hour and a half away from that deadline, President Trump seconds ago taking to True
01:18Social to say that he is talking to Pakistani officials.
01:21And based on that conversation, he will agree to stop bombing for two weeks.
01:25He also says that Iran has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz for that time period.
01:31Instead, after weeks of war, it's entering a ceasefire that Tehran can present as proof
01:36that it endured American and Israeli pressure and still got to the negotiating table on
01:41its own feet.
01:42Survival matters in a conflict like this.
01:45In fact, for regimes built on resistance, survival is often the whole point.
01:49Iran responded to those strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz and it appears that the ceasefire
01:54is predicated, at least in part, on the legitimization of Iran's control of that key waterway.
02:00And that goes with an implication of if the waterway can be open temporarily, Iran likely
02:05could re-close the strait should negotiations not progress in a way that they see fit.
02:11Both Washington and Tehran were offering sharply different versions of the agreement.
02:16And both were publicly claiming success.
02:18That alone tells you something.
02:20This isn't a scenario where one side was clearly broken.
02:23It's one where perception is doing a lot of the work.
02:26And for the Islamic Republic, simply living to fight another political day is something
02:31it can sell as a win.
02:33Iran also talking about maintaining the right to enrich uranium and also the lifting of sanctions.
02:39No mention at all of that almost thousand pounds of highly enriched uranium, which was stated
02:45as one of the reasons for the war in the first place.
02:49America's case is that it won something bigger.
02:51He believes that we've done everything we wanted to do militarily.
02:57He described it to me as a complete victory, a victory in military terms.
03:02And then he said, actually, in every other sense as well, a complete victory.
03:06That is how he is framing this war, which has lasted for just over a month.
03:12But this is where the counter argument comes in.
03:15The U.S. case isn't really that Iran vanished because it obviously didn't.
03:19The U.S. case is that America achieved a broader strategic goal.
03:23U.S. President Donald Trump has called the ceasefire proof of a, quote, total and complete victory.
03:29While senior U.S. officials have said Iran's military capabilities, air defenses and naval assets were heavily degraded during the
03:37conflict.
03:37Whether you buy the White House's rhetoric in full is another matter entirely.
03:41But the larger point is still important.
03:44War is not always about immediate regime change.
03:47So I put it to him.
03:49How is this?
03:50How are these proposals anything like anything workable that America could agree to?
03:55And he said to me, you don't know what the points are.
03:59You don't know what they are.
04:00I do know what they are.
04:02Sometimes it's about shrinking your opponent's capabilities, limiting their future options, and forcing them into a narrower strategic box.
04:10The U.S. military is presenting itself as ready to resume fighting if diplomacy fails.
04:15So from Washington's perspective, the argument is this.
04:19Iran's leadership survived, yes, but it's weaker, more exposed, and more constrained than before.
04:24That is how America can claim it lost the battle of optics while still maybe, just maybe, winning the long
04:31strategic contest.
04:33This will be a double-sided ceasefire.
04:36The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives and are very far
04:41along with the definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East.
04:47The two sides were fighting different wars.
04:49David, back to the ceasefire announced by President Trump.
04:52It appears that Iran has agreed to it, but it's also clear it has its own demands now, and Iran
04:58is claiming victory.
04:59Meetings are now being discussed, but this all remains very tenuous with the world watching that Strait of Hormuz tomorrow.
05:06Iran and the United States were not pursuing the same objective.
05:10That may be the real heart of this story.
05:12For the Islamic Republic, this was a war of survival, legitimacy, and narrative.
05:17The regime needed to endure.
05:19It needed to avoid being seen as broken.
05:22It needed to show its supporters, its bureaucracy, and its security apparatus that it could take a hit and stay
05:28standing.
05:29For the United States, the objective was broader and less immediate.
05:33Deterrence, containment, regional signaling, and strategic pressure.
05:37Then, a few hours ago, perhaps an indication of hope for a permanent end, with the president calling this a
05:43big day for world peace, saying Iran has had enough, and so has everyone else.
05:48That difference matters because it explains why both sides can come away claiming victory without necessarily sounding absurd.
05:55If your goal is survival and you survive, you can call that a win.
05:59If your goal is to damage an adversary's long-term capacity and you do that, you can also call that
06:04a win.
06:05But fundamentally, the military objectives of the United States have been completed.
06:08So that means, as the president has said, very shortly this war is going to conclude.
06:13And I think the nature of the conclusion is ultimately up to the Iranians.
06:17That's why this ceasefire is so politically slippery.
06:19It's not a neat ending.
06:21It's a pause in which both sides are trying to lock in the story they want the world to remember.
06:26No other president has shown the courage and resolve of this commander-in-chief.
06:33President Trump forged this moment.
06:36Iran begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it.
06:39What this means for America is also about America itself.
06:43And while Israel has agreed to halt fire against Iranian targets, the same cannot be said for its operation in
06:50Lebanon.
06:51The IDF dropping large bombs on the historic city of Tyre in Lebanon's south,
06:57with the Netanyahu government declaring the ceasefire did not extend to their northern neighbor.
07:01This conflict has sharpened questions that were already hanging over Washington.
07:05Those questions include, how far should America go in backing Israel?
07:10And what exactly counts as America first in a Middle East war that risks dragging in shipping lanes, oil prices,
07:17and regional bases?
07:18Those questions aren't going away because the bombs paused for two weeks.
07:22If anything, the ceasefire makes them more urgent.
07:26And this is a live look at the Lebanese capital Beirut, which has just been hit by an Israeli barrage.
07:32Its residents say their country is on the brink of economic collapse, calling to be included in today's historic ceasefire.
07:41President Trump's abrupt move from annihilation threats to accepting what he calls a workable Iranian proposal
07:47has already been read by critics as yet another example of maximalist rhetoric followed by tactical retreat.
07:54Meanwhile, the president's supporters are presenting it as proof that military pressure forced diplomacy.
08:00That split tells you a lot about the American political battlefield now surrounding this war.
08:06In other words, the ceasefire now becomes another front in the Trump administration's own domestic struggle over foreign policy and
08:13sheer credibility.
08:14Other presidents marked time and kicked the can down the road.
08:18President Trump made history.
08:20From the strike that took out Qasem Soleimani to tearing up the disastrous Obama-Iran deal to the precision campaign
08:30that obliterated Iran's nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer to the decisive military victory we just achieved in Operation Epic
08:37Fury.
08:38Was America fighting for Israel?
08:40America's broader war here was never just about missiles, proxies, or even the ceasefire itself.
08:46It was also about alliances, deterrence, and the uncomfortable reality of how intertwined U.S. and Israeli interests have become.
08:54The president and Bibi Netanyahu have actually been much more aligned in certain ways over a very long period of
09:00time than certainly a lot of the president's base of supporters want to see.
09:05And then some of his own advisors either recognize or want to admit.
09:10Historically, the U.S. lost Iran as a close partner after 1979.
09:14And over time, Israel filled part of that strategic vacuum.
09:18That created a relationship that is powerful, effective, and complicated.
09:22Israel believes it influences America.
09:25America believes it influences Israel.
09:27Who controls whom?
09:29In a sense, the answer is simply yes.
09:31It shouldn't really be a surprise if you look at the decade-long relationship.
09:37When Bibi Netanyahu came to this Situation Room meeting with the president and the president's senior advisors on February 11th,
09:46it's pretty extraordinary, Anderson,
09:48because it is clearly unusual for a foreign leader to be in this kind of an in-person meeting in
09:52the Situation Room.
09:53It certainly speaks to the magnitude of it.
09:55That's why so many Americans keep asking a blunt question.
09:59Are we fighting this for Israel?
10:01The honest answer is not entirely.
10:03But it's not entirely wrong either.
10:05The U.S. is clearly acting in its own interest as well.
10:09From Washington's perspective, the Islamic Republic remains a long-term threat, not just because of what it has done, but
10:16because of what it has consistently shown it wants to do.
10:19Iran has not directly struck the U.S. homeland.
10:22But that says more about capability than benevolence.
10:25Its record of acting through proxies is well-established, and the 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Beirut remains one of
10:33the clearest symbols of how anti-American violence tied to Iran's regional network has played out before.
10:39And now the number is 191 in the Beirut Massacre, 191 Marines dead in the explosion at their headquarters at
10:47the Beirut Airport.
10:48And while the families of the dead were being notified today, President Reagan was defending his decision to keep those
10:54Marines in Lebanon.
10:55Pakistan, China, and Russia all come out of this looking different.
10:59The two nations have been invited to meet for talks in Islamabad later this week.
11:05These talks, Pakistan says, could lead to a more sustainable peace.
11:09If you zoom out, the ceasefire is also reshuffling the wider playing field.
11:14Pakistan clearly gains stature from this moment because it was central to the mediation effort and is hosting the next
11:20round of talks.
11:22That alone gives Islamabad a bigger diplomatic role than many expected.
11:26The Pakistani prime minister has invited delegations from both sides to hold physical talks in Islamabad.
11:32And the hope in Islamabad is that Pakistan will be able to mediate a deal on ending the U.S.-Iran
11:40conflict.
11:40China also appears to gain, quietly but meaningfully.
11:44Trump himself said he believed China helped push Iran towards negotiations.
11:48And Beijing now gets the opportunity to look like a country that can preserve its standing on the global stage
11:54without getting dragged into direct combat.
11:56There is reporting from the New York Times and others that there was a last-minute intervention by China to
12:01get involved.
12:02We know that Pakistan and China had a joint peace proposal last week.
12:07Of course, China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.
12:10They would presumably be involved in helping to finance any reconstruction after the war.
12:15And they're just a key economic partner for Iran altogether.
12:19Russia, by contrast, looks sidelined.
12:22Moscow welcomed the ceasefire and immediately pivoted back to its own concerns over Ukraine,
12:26which tells you how little operational leverage it really had in influencing this outcome.
12:31So one of the effects on America is that Washington gets to show that when it uses force,
12:36the real strategic echoes are heard not just in Tehran, but all over the world.
12:41That doesn't mean America solved the regional issues.
12:44Instead, it means that America reminded its rivals what U.S. power still looks like when it's actually used.
12:50So I think there's still a lot of questions at this point as to whether this ceasefire can actually translate
12:57into a durable and permanent end to the hostilities.
13:01But one thing we know for sure is that it provides a reprieve and it walks us away from the
13:07brink of,
13:08you know, truly an escalatory situation where military operations keep ramping up
13:14and we keep seeing the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
13:16The Iranian people still lose, and none of this is actually settled.
13:42For all the talk of winners, the most obvious losers remain the Iranian people.
13:47A ceasefire does not fix repression, stagnation, censorship, or fear.
13:52It doesn't suddenly hold the regime more accountable.
13:55It doesn't rebuild what's been destroyed.
13:57And it certainly doesn't answer the question that keeps haunting every conversation about Iran's future.
14:02If the Islamic Republic were to weaken further and eventually fall, what exactly replaces it?
14:18At the same time, this ceasefire is disconcertingly fragile.
14:23Major details remain disputed.
14:25Shipping rules in the Strait of Hormuz are unresolved,
14:28and Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue outside the core arrangement.
14:32Simply put, this is not peace.
14:34It's a dangerously fragile pause, wrapped in competing propaganda.
14:39Iran may have won the battle by surviving,
14:41and America may yet argue that it won the war by reshuffling the field.
14:45But for ordinary Iranians, and frankly, for the wider region,
14:49the deeper reality is stark.
14:51The crisis isn't over.
14:53It merely entered a new phase.
14:56America has shown its true colors a hundred times.
14:59We were at the negotiating table twice when it attacked us,
15:02and this time it will be the same.
15:05America can't be trusted.
15:07As long as a Security Council resolution is not issued,
15:10and reparations are not paid, it can't be trusted at all.
15:13We won't accept that.
15:14So what do you think?
15:15Did Iran really win by surviving?
15:17Or did America come out ahead by changing the strategic landscape?
15:21Let us know in the comments below.
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