00:00You think about what we're seeing when it comes to mortgage rates. I mean, we're talking about
00:03a six-handle and then some. What does that mean as we approach this spring, which, you know,
00:10as I mentioned, is obviously a crucial one? Yeah. Yeah. Well, first of all, Katie,
00:15thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it. I would say uncertainty is really the market
00:20driver today. This is a spring market that's really going to be defined by more discerning
00:27patient buyers than maybe the last couple of years. And successful sellers are serious about
00:33why they need to sell and accepting of current local conditions. And I think it's really important for
00:39the general public to understand that the market is really returned to what I would consider a
00:45traditionally normal real estate landscape and that it's really hyper-local. So what's happening
00:51in the Northeast is different than the Southeast, which is both different than the Midwest and so
00:56on and so forth. So current data indicates that the spring market is unlikely to reach the level
01:03of performance that earlier momentum had suggested. We saw eight consecutive weeks of improving
01:08affordability to end Q4. And in 2025, in January and February strong, we saw declining and stable
01:16mortgage rates during that period and year-over-year growth in what I would consider two really
01:21meaningful leading indicators, which are purchase mortgage applications and pending sales.
01:26That's all been disrupted here the last couple of weeks with the Iran conflict. And so we've got
01:33this tempered demand here that we've got to see how long will really impact the spring selling season.
01:40Yeah, it's a good point. It did seem, you know, for a while there, at least a few months, that
01:45things were getting slightly better, especially when it comes to the rate side of things. But you
01:50mentioned this hyper-local market that we're living in right now. And I wonder, you know,
01:54where you are seeing the differences here when it comes to, you know, what regions are seeing a pickup
02:00versus a little bit of a pullback?
02:02Yeah, well, certainly the Northeast part of the country is experiencing the similar conditions
02:08that we've been in here the last few years. Still limited inventory. Demand is still very,
02:14very healthy and strong there. And so prices have continued to be elevated. I actually was speaking
02:20with a great Coldwell Banker agent in Vermont last week and just asked her how the first quarter was.
02:27She said she helped 16 families in the first quarter and had 12 more under contract. So very,
02:33very active there. You look at markets maybe like Texas, Dallas, Fort Worth specifically,
02:38or Florida, where we have growing inventory. And so more buyer options in that marketplace or those
02:46marketplaces. So again, it's in the Midwest doesn't usually experience the volatility that some other
02:52markets do across the country. So again, it's really, really important to consult a local
02:59experienced expert that can help you make a fully informed decision based on local conditions.
03:05So Jason, one thing I'm curious about is with regards to the actual supply of existing homes
03:10coming onto the market, because this was always, certainly over the last few years, been a big issue
03:14that a lot of homeowners just did not feel it was attractive enough for them to even put their home
03:19in the market, which, of course, if you're a buyer, just makes this whole process even more complicated.
03:24Have we started to see buyers, excuse me, sellers, potential sellers become a little bit more willing
03:29to go ahead and price?
03:31Well, yeah, Romain, that's a great question. And it's inventory. And I talk an awful lot about
03:37affordability and what impacts affordability. And I refer to it as the impact triangle. And that's
03:43mortgage interest rates, prices, and inventory. What's really fascinating today, we're about 4%
03:50year-over-year growth in available inventory. But new inventory is actually down 3% compared to last year.
03:57And at this time last year, there was 36% more available inventory than it's 4% today. So that
04:09gap has really been compressed. So there was, again, favorable momentum there. We're starting to see
04:16more folks and homeowners with the mortgage to have a 6% or greater interest rate than a 3%
04:23or less.
04:24But it's just going to take an awful lot of time to work through that cycle, which I would refer
04:30to
04:31as those unicorn years of those 3% or below rates. It's just going to take time to work through
04:37that
04:38lock-in effect.
04:39Yeah. I mean, and yeah, and let's face it, we're not necessarily, at least on the rate side,
04:43no one's anticipating, if you believe the economists, any material drop back down to those levels anytime
04:49soon. It raises also the question going forward about policy and how that actually affects not just
04:55mortgage rates, but just overall the home buying and home selling psychology, if you will. I know
04:59there has been some distant chatter in Washington about trying to find ways to sort of goose the
05:04housing market. Is there any sense here that we could potentially see some policy solutions that could
05:09actually address some of these issues?
05:12There's certainly conversations being had, and that's where it starts. And I think at the end
05:16of the day, it's really important that we just explore everything. There's no bad ideas when it comes
05:22to solving this affordability challenge that we face here in the U.S., because the demand is there.
05:29Coldwell Banker, we just completed our American Dream Survey, and we found 92% of aspiring homeowners
05:35homeowners said they make a major lifestyle sacrifice for five years if that meant they could buy a home
05:41today. And so that demand is there. It will continue to be there, and we have to solve for that
05:47affordability
05:48problem.
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