00:00Let's next talk to Elijah J. Magnier, the veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
00:06Elijah, welcome back. First, your reaction to this two-week ceasefire.
00:12Thank you for having me. I think it's still too early as Israel is indeed violating the ceasefire
00:19and sabotaging it by bombing Lebanon when Pakistan said that the ceasefire includes
00:26Iran, Lebanon and all the other front in the Middle East.
00:31Therefore, the beginning may be not very robust.
00:36However, if Donald Trump is not interfering, Iran will retaliate against Israel
00:42because this is what the Iranians have promised to do in case of any violation of the ceasefire.
00:49In real terms, what's changed since before this conflict and today?
00:55What's been achieved beyond the decapitation of some of the Iranian leadership?
01:02A lot has been achieved. First, it shows that the U.S. as a superpower failed to destroy and control
01:12Iran.
01:13It has also been known that the Americans and the Israelis failed to call upon their European and NATO allies,
01:25that Iran, despite being a nation under 47 years of sanctions, managed to hold this ground and defend itself.
01:35And this is all what Iran needed to achieve.
01:38And what happened also is that we know now that even with a very great military power,
01:47it is not easy to achieve a regime change or to overthrow a government like Iran
01:54when people are standing behind the ruling system.
01:59What we also see how Iran was also managing to control the Strait of Hormuz and use it and will
02:10use it in the future
02:11to impose fees for the reconstruction, while the American most powerful Navy failed to do so,
02:19including the American armies.
02:21President Trump and Donald Trump will acknowledge the control of Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
02:26So the list is really very, very long about the failure of the U.S. and the Israelis to achieve
02:34their initial objective,
02:35to change the regime, because destruction doesn't mean the fulfillment of the military objectives.
02:42President Trump says the United States will now work closely with Iran.
02:48What might that look like?
02:51Well, it looks like the United States is going to return to the negotiation table
02:56where all the points that Iran requested and the Americans now accept could have been achieved without a war.
03:06Now, the Americans understood that actually it is not the best way to deal with Iran using the coercion or
03:16the military power,
03:18but it's better to sit around the table, particularly when the U.K. were having a representative at the negotiation
03:25in Oman
03:26just prior, a few days prior, the war said that Iran has indeed gave a lot of concessions that were
03:35not expected,
03:37and then the deal can be reached.
03:38The same deal will be reached today.
03:41Iran will be satisfied, but with another advantage.
03:45The Americans will lift sanctions on Iran.
03:48Otherwise, the two weeks will be just a test, and both sides will be re-armed and start another round
03:55of violence.
03:56Elijah, good to talk to you, and thank you for your time.
03:58Elijah J. Magnier, the veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst.
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