00:00President Trump isn't going to be able to convince the American public that he won
00:06until he can prove that he's achieved his various war aims.
00:11It's hard to say that the United States has won
00:14when Iran still continues to hamper freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
00:21Thank you so much for talking to me, and I really appreciate your time.
00:24Did the President make a convincing case this afternoon through his press conference
00:30that Operation Epic Fury achieved its objectives, he claimed that we won,
00:35or was it just another spin?
00:38No, President Trump isn't going to be able to convince the American public that he won
00:46until he can prove that he's achieved his various war aims.
00:51The problem is, his various war aims shift with time, sometimes from minute to minute, hour to hour.
00:59But at a minimum, he needs to account for Iran's nuclear-enriched uranium.
01:05He also needs to eliminate Iran's missile capability.
01:11And then the last issue has to do with the future of Iran's government,
01:15because different people can point to different statements the President has made
01:20in order to adjudicate whether or not he has succeeded.
01:25But at a very minimum, it's hard to say that the United States has won
01:31when Iran still continues to hamper freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
01:40Right. Now, President Trump, just at the beginning of this conflict,
01:45had promised to help the Iranian people.
01:48He said help was on its way.
01:49But again, today we heard that the President is threatening to bomb their power plants, infrastructure.
01:55How do you square that?
01:58Well, first of all, even by the Iranian regime's estimates,
02:04the number of people that have been killed in American bombing
02:08is far below that which the Iranian regime itself killed
02:13during an orgy of violence in two days in January.
02:18But the problem with Trump has always been his rhetoric.
02:23Many American policymakers have often joked
02:27that Trump's policies might be far more palatable
02:32if the United States pursued them
02:34with Donald Trump locked out of sight in a basement somewhere
02:39without an ability to tweet or speak.
02:45Now, with regard to the question,
02:47how do you square Donald Trump's statements
02:51with regard to his promises to help the Iranian people?
02:55On one hand, his statement's unhelpful
02:58because he seems to conflate the Iranian people
03:02with the regime he seeks to oust.
03:05On the other hand,
03:07when it comes to Iran's power plants,
03:10it's important to recognize
03:12that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
03:14controls and profits from most of them.
03:17That said,
03:19the United States should not repeat the mistakes in Iran
03:22of our engagement with Iraq.
03:26I went to Iraq right after Saddam Hussein had fallen.
03:30And what was clear
03:31is that the United States had completely destroyed
03:37Iraq's infrastructure and its economy.
03:41But the next day,
03:43the Iraqis were our allies,
03:45and we were the ones who were struggling
03:47because their economy had been destroyed.
03:51With regard to Iran,
03:53it's important to go after the Iranian regime
03:56with a scalpel,
03:58not an axe,
04:00and certainly not a flamethrower.
04:04Now,
04:05Tuesday's deadline is hours away.
04:08Do you see a deal happening, Michael?
04:10And it's a yes or a no.
04:12And what are the Americans really thinking here?
04:17I do not see a deal being made.
04:21Now,
04:22with regard to Donald Trump,
04:25his ultimatums
04:27are often
04:29drawn in pencil
04:31in the sand.
04:33They're not a traditional ultimatum.
04:37That said,
04:38there's a military strategy
04:40behind what Donald Trump is doing.
04:42Every time
04:43he issues an ultimatum,
04:46the Iranians react.
04:48And the Americans note how they react.
04:51If he keeps issuing ultimatums
04:53and then extending them,
04:56ultimately,
04:57the United States gains intelligence
04:59and Iranian readiness declines.
05:02At the very least,
05:04for those who want a diplomatic solution,
05:07it's unrealistic to expect
05:09a diplomatic solution
05:10if the Iranian leadership doesn't fear
05:13that something worse is to come.
05:18Now,
05:19the basic problem
05:20which Donald Trump doesn't understand
05:22is this.
05:23The United States
05:25has a reputation
05:27of lacking strategic patience.
05:31And because of that,
05:33the Iranian regime,
05:36or what remains of it,
05:38isn't trying to defeat
05:39the United States.
05:41It's only trying to outlast
05:43American patience.
05:45And if it does that,
05:47then it will stand up
05:49and declare victory,
05:50no matter what
05:51Donald Trump tries to spin.
05:55Now,
05:56let's talk about
05:56a country that's claiming
05:58to be the dealmaker here.
06:00Let's talk about Pakistan.
06:02They have been claiming
06:03that they are mediators here.
06:05Are they really genuine mediators
06:06or just messengers
06:08carrying the letters
06:09that neither side
06:10want to read?
06:11You know,
06:13a book should be written
06:15about insincere mediators
06:17in the 21st century.
06:19We see Turkey,
06:21we see Qatar,
06:22and we see Pakistan
06:24immunizing themselves
06:26from accountability
06:27for their own actions
06:29by insincerely posturing
06:32as mediators.
06:34The fact of the matter is,
06:36in each case,
06:37their mediation
06:38has gone nowhere,
06:39which is why
06:41we're in the conflict
06:42we're in right now.
06:44But,
06:44so long as Donald Trump
06:47seems to be as gullible
06:50as he is
06:53on these issues,
06:56Asim Mounir
06:57is simply going to
06:58extract
06:59as much as he can
07:02from Donald Trump.
07:04Donald Trump
07:05thinks of himself
07:06as the ultimate dealmaker.
07:09But,
07:09his vision
07:11or his understanding
07:13is the New York
07:14real estate market.
07:16As soon as he goes into
07:18the markets
07:20of Karachi
07:21or Istanbul
07:23or Doha,
07:25he gets fleeced
07:26and he doesn't
07:27even realize it.
07:31Now,
07:33you know,
07:33the government here
07:34is controlling
07:35the Strait of Hormuz
07:36and the oil
07:37is at
07:38$100 a barrel.
07:40How exactly
07:41is this a win
07:43for America?
07:45Well,
07:47first of all,
07:48we need to recognize
07:49that the Strait of Hormuz
07:51closure
07:52has a ticking clock
07:54over it
07:54because
07:56while its closure
07:58hurts
07:58the Gulf
08:00Arab states,
08:01the Islamic Republic
08:03of Iran
08:04also needs
08:05to import
08:06its refined
08:07gasoline
08:08because it doesn't
08:09have its own
08:10adequate refining
08:11capability
08:12and capacity.
08:14Therefore,
08:15if Donald Trump
08:16wanted to,
08:17the way in which
08:18he could bring
08:19the Iranians
08:20to their knees
08:21would be
08:22if the United States
08:24blockaded
08:25the Strait of Hormuz
08:27and prevented
08:28the Iranians
08:29from importing
08:30refined gasoline,
08:32there's also
08:33a ticking clock
08:34over the Strait of Hormuz
08:36because Iran
08:37relies upon
08:39its oil exports
08:41in order
08:42to pay
08:42the salaries
08:43of the Islamic
08:44Revolutionary Guard Corps.
08:45What we're about
08:47to see
08:47is what proportion
08:49of the Islamic
08:50Revolutionary Guard Corps
08:51has been in this
08:52conflict for the money
08:54versus how many
08:55are the true
08:56ideologues.
08:57I would suspect
08:58and we've already
08:59seen indications
09:00of many within
09:02the Islamic
09:02Revolutionary Guard Corps
09:03not showing up
09:04for work.
09:05And so,
09:06while the Iranians
09:08have mastered
09:09the art
09:09of bluster,
09:11I don't believe
09:12that the Strait of Hormuz
09:13closure
09:14is going to be
09:15as comprehensive
09:17or permanent
09:18as the Iranians
09:19seem to claim.
09:22Now,
09:23let's just talk about
09:24the details
09:26that have emerged
09:26about the U.S.
09:28airman
09:29who was
09:31rescued.
09:32Talk to us about
09:34what really
09:35this rescue operation,
09:37what you make of it,
09:39and what really
09:40is the mood
09:41within
09:42the Department of War
09:44you know,
09:45what is it
09:45amongst the soldiers,
09:47somebody who has
09:48been in those boots,
09:50someone as an
09:52ex-Pentagon official,
09:54what is your sense
09:55about what really
09:56is the mood
09:57within
09:57the Department of War?
10:00Well,
10:00first of all,
10:01to be clear,
10:02I'm a civilian
10:02and I never served
10:04in the military.
10:04So,
10:05I just want to make
10:06that clear
10:06so that no one
10:08accuses me
10:08of pretending
10:09otherwise.
10:10That said,
10:12look,
10:12let's be blunt.
10:14there is no
10:15other military
10:16in the world,
10:16whether you like
10:17Donald Trump
10:18or dislike
10:19Donald Trump,
10:20that could stage
10:21a rescue
10:22like the United
10:23States just
10:24staged.
10:24We set up
10:26an interim
10:27airfield
10:28just a few
10:30dozen kilometers
10:31from one of
10:32Iran's largest
10:33cities
10:33and managed
10:35without a single
10:36loss of a
10:38person
10:38to rescue
10:40airmen
10:41who were
10:42shot down.
10:43That is
10:44amazing.
10:45We've done
10:45this before.
10:46We did this
10:47once over
10:47Kosovo
10:48back in
10:491999,
10:50but the fact
10:51that we were
10:52able to do
10:53this against
10:53a much more
10:54formidable
10:54ally
10:55shows just
10:57how potent
10:57the American
10:58military is
10:59and how
11:01empty
11:01and what a
11:02paper tiger
11:04Iran's
11:04military is.
11:05Now, if I
11:07may say
11:07with regard
11:08to the
11:08Indian
11:09discourse,
11:10one thing
11:11I think
11:11the Indian
11:12discourse
11:12gets wrong.
11:14Certainly,
11:15the Indians
11:16are right
11:16to complain
11:17about the
11:18rise in
11:19energy prices,
11:20especially since
11:21they had no
11:22say given
11:23the unilateral
11:24action of
11:25Donald Trump's
11:26decision to
11:27go to war.
11:28But,
11:29while it's
11:30all well and
11:31good to
11:31hand-wring
11:32over the
11:33American
11:33decision
11:34and over
11:35international
11:36law,
11:36there needs
11:38to be much
11:39greater
11:39discussion
11:40within
11:41India
11:42about what
11:43India is
11:44going to
11:44do to
11:45achieve the
11:46capabilities
11:47which America
11:48has now
11:49demonstrated.
11:51Because the
11:51fact of the
11:52matter is,
11:53as India
11:53rises as
11:55an economic
11:56power and
11:57frankly as a
11:58global power,
11:59the knives are
12:00going to be
12:01out in
12:01Pakistan,
12:03in China,
12:04and elsewhere,
12:05and India
12:06can't get
12:07caught simply
12:09hand-wringing and
12:11discussing endlessly
12:12about international
12:13law when it
12:14also needs to
12:15develop its
12:17military capability.
12:18The last point,
12:20which has come
12:20under discussion,
12:22which is truly
12:23interesting and in
12:24many ways could be
12:25a diplomatic
12:26game-changer,
12:27is there are a
12:28lot of rumors
12:29now that the
12:31missile,
12:32missile, which
12:33shot down the
12:34American F-15,
12:36was provided by
12:37Turkey to
12:38Iran.
12:39It wasn't an
12:41indigenous Iranian
12:42missile.
12:43And if this is
12:44confirmed, then
12:46there is going to
12:47be an even
12:48greater crisis
12:49within NATO.
12:54now, if the
12:56talks don't get
12:57through, do
12:57you see
12:58Pakistan
12:59providing
13:00any kind
13:01of ground
13:02support to
13:03the U.S.
13:04military to
13:06carry out
13:06its operations
13:07against Iran?
13:09No, and I
13:10don't see the
13:11Pakistanis doing
13:12anything, for
13:15diplomatic reasons,
13:16I don't see the
13:17Pakistanis doing
13:18anything, and
13:18frankly, the
13:19Pakistanis don't
13:20have capability.
13:21The Pakistanis,
13:22like the
13:23Iranians, are
13:24experts.
13:25I rate them
13:2610 out of 10
13:27in fantasy, and
13:29in bragging about
13:30capabilities they
13:31don't have.
13:32But when push
13:33comes to shove,
13:35they're 1 or 2
13:36out of 10 in
13:37their ability to
13:38actually achieve
13:39what they claim.
13:40Now, the
13:41biggest, another
13:42diplomatic story
13:43out of this
13:44conflict is just
13:46how disappointed
13:47Saudi Arabia is
13:49in Pakistan.
13:51Because Saudi
13:52Arabia was
13:52attacked when
13:54it was sitting
13:54on the sidelines
13:55of this conflict.
13:56And just a few
13:57months ago,
13:58Pakistan and
13:59Saudi Arabia
14:00signed a so-called
14:02mutual defense
14:02alliance.
14:03Some people are
14:04talking about it
14:05being an Islamic
14:06NATO.
14:07I mean, in
14:08reality, it's
14:09an Islamic
14:09no-go.
14:10Because when
14:11Saudi Arabia was
14:13in its hour of
14:14need, Pakistan
14:15simply made up
14:16some excuses.
14:17And sometimes
14:18those excuses
14:19were just empty
14:20diplomatic rhetoric.
14:21But let's also
14:22face it.
14:23When Pakistan
14:24is bombing
14:25Kabul and
14:26pretending that
14:27they're in
14:28a much greater
14:29and more
14:32existential
14:33conflict with
14:34the Taliban
14:35than they're
14:35in, what
14:37Pakistan is
14:37really doing
14:38is just
14:38creating an
14:39excuse not
14:40to have to
14:41fulfill their
14:43diplomatic bargain
14:44with Saudi
14:44Arabia.
14:45So, I mean,
14:46let's be frank.
14:48To make a
14:49military alliance
14:50with Saudi
14:51Arabia makes
14:53about as much
14:54sense as
14:55making a
14:56military alliance
14:57with Papua New
14:58Guinea.
14:59the only
14:59difference is
15:00that Papua New
15:01Guinea might
15:01have a more
15:02capable military
15:03at this point.
15:05Right.
15:06Your closing
15:07remarks,
15:08anything that
15:09you'd like to
15:09add to what
15:10we heard from
15:11the president
15:12in the next
15:1224 hours?
15:13Not even
15:1424, less
15:15than that now.
15:16No, look,
15:17I mean, the
15:18bigger, what I
15:19would say with
15:20regard to this
15:21war is
15:23that never
15:26before have
15:28I seen such
15:29a divergence
15:29between military
15:32domination on
15:33one side
15:33and influence
15:35domination on
15:37the other.
15:38The Americans
15:39have shown,
15:40despite arguments
15:41that we don't
15:42have strategic
15:43patience,
15:44that we are
15:45capable of
15:46bombing with
15:47extreme precision
15:48and decimating
15:50targets.
15:50We control
15:51Iranian air
15:52space.
15:53At the same
15:54time, because
15:55of Iranian
15:56bluster and
15:58the willingness
15:59of people to
16:00believe Iranian
16:01bluster, many
16:03people even
16:03believe that the
16:04United States is
16:05losing, which
16:06is absolute
16:07nonsense, given
16:08what we just
16:09pulled off
16:10rescuing the
16:11pilot.
16:12One of the
16:13other issues
16:14which is out
16:15there, and
16:16again, it goes
16:17into the whole
16:17influence operations,
16:20is that, in all
16:21likelihood,
16:22Iran doesn't
16:24have a supreme
16:24leader.
16:26Muchtapa
16:26Khamenei hasn't
16:28been seen, and
16:29the most recent
16:30attempt to
16:31suggest that he
16:31was in Qum
16:32appears to have
16:34been generated
16:34by artificial
16:35intelligence.
16:36How long are
16:38we going to
16:38keep up this
16:40illusion that
16:41Iran is anything
16:43other than a
16:44military dictatorship
16:45under the
16:45control of the
16:46Islamic
16:47Revolutionary
16:47Guard Corps?
16:48the clergy
16:49itself has
16:50collapsed, and
16:52that also is a
16:53story that is
16:54coming out.
16:55The last point I
16:57would make is
16:58that while people,
17:00many people are
17:01cheering for the
17:02United States to
17:03be defeated, and
17:05it's almost like
17:07Gulliver's travels,
17:09and we see this
17:10with NATO, the
17:11United States is
17:12Gulliver, and we're
17:14being tied down, and
17:16many different NATO
17:17countries, Spain, for
17:18example, Austria.
17:20They're basically
17:21acting like the
17:21Lilliputians right
17:22now.
17:23However, they don't
17:25fully understand what
17:26is at stake if
17:28freedom of navigation
17:29isn't restored, or
17:31if Iran is able to
17:32claim victory.
17:33What the Americans
17:35have to reckon with
17:36is just how deep
17:38anti-Americanism is,
17:41not only among our
17:42adversaries, but
17:44among our allies, and
17:46we need to
17:46recognize that the
17:48reason why
17:49anti-Americanism is
17:51so deep is because
17:52of our unilateralism
17:54and because of the
17:56failure over
17:57generations of our
17:58diplomacy, and
17:59because the United
18:00States doesn't
18:03adequately show
18:04respect to our
18:06allies.
18:07India is not
18:08alone in this.
18:10But until the
18:11Americans understand
18:12understand that we
18:13can't go it
18:14alone, we are
18:16going to suffer
18:17much more, not
18:19only in victory, but
18:20also perhaps in the
18:21future in defeat.
18:22in victory.
18:23So, let's do it.
18:23Let's do it.
18:24Let's do it.
18:25Let's do it.
18:28Let's do it.
18:29Let's do it.
18:29Let's do it.
18:30Let's do it.
18:30Let's do it.
