- 6 hours ago
Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin tears into President Trump over Operation Epic Fury against Iran. He says key goals remain unmet, Iran’s nuclear uranium, missile capabilities, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Rubin questions Trump’s victory claims in this hard-hitting interview. Big US-Iran conflict update!
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00:00President Trump isn't going to be able to convince the American public that he won
00:06until he can prove that he's achieved his various war aims.
00:11It's hard to say that the United States has won
00:14when Iran still continues to hamper freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
00:21Thank you so much for talking to me, and I really appreciate your time.
00:24Did the President make a convincing case this afternoon through his press conference
00:30that Operation Epic Fury achieved its objectives, he claimed that we won,
00:35or was it just another spin?
00:38No, President Trump isn't going to be able to convince the American public that he won
00:46until he can prove that he's achieved his various war aims.
00:51The problem is, his various war aims shift with time, sometimes from minute to minute, hour to hour.
00:59But at a minimum, he needs to account for Iran's nuclear-enriched uranium.
01:05He also needs to eliminate Iran's missile capability.
01:11And then the last issue has to do with the future of Iran's government,
01:15because different people can point to different statements the President has made
01:20in order to adjudicate whether or not he has succeeded.
01:25But at a very minimum, it's hard to say that the United States has won
01:31when Iran still continues to hamper freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
01:40Right. Now, President Trump, just at the beginning of this conflict,
01:45had promised to help the Iranian people.
01:48He said help was on its way.
01:49But again, today we heard that the President is threatening to bomb their power plants, infrastructure.
01:55How do you square that?
01:58Well, first of all, even by the Iranian regime's estimates,
02:04the number of people that have been killed in American bombing
02:08is far below that which the Iranian regime itself killed
02:13during an orgy of violence in two days in January.
02:18But the problem with Trump has always been his rhetoric.
02:23Many American policymakers have often joked
02:27that Trump's policies might be far more palatable
02:32if the United States pursued them
02:34with Donald Trump locked out of sight in a basement somewhere
02:39without an ability to tweet or speak.
02:45Now, with regard to the question,
02:47how do you square Donald Trump's statements
02:51with regard to his promises to help the Iranian people?
02:55On one hand, his statement's unhelpful
02:58because he seems to conflate the Iranian people
03:02with the regime he seeks to oust.
03:05On the other hand,
03:07when it comes to Iran's power plants,
03:10it's important to recognize
03:12that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
03:14controls and profits from most of them.
03:17That said,
03:19the United States should not repeat the mistakes in Iran
03:22of our engagement with Iraq.
03:26I went to Iraq right after Saddam Hussein had fallen.
03:30And what was clear
03:31is that the United States had completely destroyed
03:37Iraq's infrastructure and its economy.
03:41But the next day,
03:43the Iraqis were our allies,
03:45and we were the ones who were struggling
03:47because their economy had been destroyed.
03:51With regard to Iran,
03:53it's important to go after the Iranian regime
03:56with a scalpel,
03:58not an axe,
04:00and certainly not a flamethrower.
04:04Now,
04:05Tuesday's deadline is hours away.
04:08Do you see a deal happening, Michael?
04:10And it's a yes or a no.
04:12And what are the Americans really thinking here?
04:17I do not see a deal being made.
04:21Now,
04:22with regard to Donald Trump,
04:25his ultimatums
04:27are often
04:29drawn in pencil
04:31in the sand.
04:33They're not a traditional ultimatum.
04:37That said,
04:38there's a military strategy
04:40behind what Donald Trump is doing.
04:42Every time
04:43he issues an ultimatum,
04:46the Iranians react.
04:48And the Americans note how they react.
04:51If he keeps issuing ultimatums
04:53and then extending them,
04:56ultimately,
04:57the United States gains intelligence
04:59and Iranian readiness declines.
05:02At the very least,
05:04for those who want a diplomatic solution,
05:07it's unrealistic to expect
05:09a diplomatic solution
05:10if the Iranian leadership doesn't fear
05:13that something worse is to come.
05:18Now,
05:19the basic problem
05:20which Donald Trump doesn't understand
05:22is this.
05:23The United States
05:25has a reputation
05:27of lacking strategic patience.
05:31And because of that,
05:33the Iranian regime,
05:36or what remains of it,
05:38isn't trying to defeat
05:39the United States.
05:41It's only trying to outlast
05:43American patience.
05:45And if it does that,
05:47then it will stand up
05:49and declare victory,
05:50no matter what
05:51Donald Trump tries to spin.
05:55Now,
05:56let's talk about
05:56a country that's claiming
05:58to be the dealmaker here.
06:00Let's talk about Pakistan.
06:02They have been claiming
06:03that they are mediators here.
06:05Are they really genuine mediators
06:06or just messengers
06:08carrying the letters
06:09that neither side
06:10want to read?
06:11You know,
06:13a book should be written
06:15about insincere mediators
06:17in the 21st century.
06:19We see Turkey,
06:21we see Qatar,
06:22and we see Pakistan
06:24immunizing themselves
06:26from accountability
06:27for their own actions
06:29by insincerely posturing
06:32as mediators.
06:34The fact of the matter is,
06:36in each case,
06:37their mediation
06:38has gone nowhere,
06:39which is why
06:41we're in the conflict
06:42we're in right now.
06:44But,
06:44so long as Donald Trump
06:47seems to be as gullible
06:50as he is
06:53on these issues,
06:56Asim Mounir
06:57is simply going to
06:58extract
06:59as much as he can
07:02from Donald Trump.
07:04Donald Trump
07:05thinks of himself
07:06as the ultimate dealmaker.
07:09But,
07:09his vision
07:11or his understanding
07:13is the New York
07:14real estate market.
07:16As soon as he goes into
07:18the markets
07:20of Karachi
07:21or Istanbul
07:23or Doha,
07:25he gets fleeced
07:26and he doesn't
07:27even realize it.
07:31Now,
07:33you know,
07:33the government here
07:34is controlling
07:35the Strait of Hormuz
07:36and the oil
07:37is at
07:38$100 a barrel.
07:40How exactly
07:41is this a win
07:43for America?
07:45Well,
07:47first of all,
07:48we need to recognize
07:49that the Strait of Hormuz
07:51closure
07:52has a ticking clock
07:54over it
07:54because
07:56while its closure
07:58hurts
07:58the Gulf
08:00Arab states,
08:01the Islamic Republic
08:03of Iran
08:04also needs
08:05to import
08:06its refined
08:07gasoline
08:08because it doesn't
08:09have its own
08:10adequate refining
08:11capability
08:12and capacity.
08:14Therefore,
08:15if Donald Trump
08:16wanted to,
08:17the way in which
08:18he could bring
08:19the Iranians
08:20to their knees
08:21would be
08:22if the United States
08:24blockaded
08:25the Strait of Hormuz
08:27and prevented
08:28the Iranians
08:29from importing
08:30refined gasoline,
08:32there's also
08:33a ticking clock
08:34over the Strait of Hormuz
08:36because Iran
08:37relies upon
08:39its oil exports
08:41in order
08:42to pay
08:42the salaries
08:43of the Islamic
08:44Revolutionary Guard Corps.
08:45What we're about
08:47to see
08:47is what proportion
08:49of the Islamic
08:50Revolutionary Guard Corps
08:51has been in this
08:52conflict for the money
08:54versus how many
08:55are the true
08:56ideologues.
08:57I would suspect
08:58and we've already
08:59seen indications
09:00of many within
09:02the Islamic
09:02Revolutionary Guard Corps
09:03not showing up
09:04for work.
09:05And so,
09:06while the Iranians
09:08have mastered
09:09the art
09:09of bluster,
09:11I don't believe
09:12that the Strait of Hormuz
09:13closure
09:14is going to be
09:15as comprehensive
09:17or permanent
09:18as the Iranians
09:19seem to claim.
09:22Now,
09:23let's just talk about
09:24the details
09:26that have emerged
09:26about the U.S.
09:28airman
09:29who was
09:31rescued.
09:32Talk to us about
09:34what really
09:35this rescue operation,
09:37what you make of it,
09:39and what really
09:40is the mood
09:41within
09:42the Department of War
09:44you know,
09:45what is it
09:45amongst the soldiers,
09:47somebody who has
09:48been in those boots,
09:50someone as an
09:52ex-Pentagon official,
09:54what is your sense
09:55about what really
09:56is the mood
09:57within
09:57the Department of War?
10:00Well,
10:00first of all,
10:01to be clear,
10:02I'm a civilian
10:02and I never served
10:04in the military.
10:04So,
10:05I just want to make
10:06that clear
10:06so that no one
10:08accuses me
10:08of pretending
10:09otherwise.
10:10That said,
10:12look,
10:12let's be blunt.
10:14there is no
10:15other military
10:16in the world,
10:16whether you like
10:17Donald Trump
10:18or dislike
10:19Donald Trump,
10:20that could stage
10:21a rescue
10:22like the United
10:23States just
10:24staged.
10:24We set up
10:26an interim
10:27airfield
10:28just a few
10:30dozen kilometers
10:31from one of
10:32Iran's largest
10:33cities
10:33and managed
10:35without a single
10:36loss of a
10:38person
10:38to rescue
10:40airmen
10:41who were
10:42shot down.
10:43That is
10:44amazing.
10:45We've done
10:45this before.
10:46We did this
10:47once over
10:47Kosovo
10:48back in
10:491999,
10:50but the fact
10:51that we were
10:52able to do
10:53this against
10:53a much more
10:54formidable
10:54ally
10:55shows just
10:57how potent
10:57the American
10:58military is
10:59and how
11:01empty
11:01and what a
11:02paper tiger
11:04Iran's
11:04military is.
11:05Now, if I
11:07may say
11:07with regard
11:08to the
11:08Indian
11:09discourse,
11:10one thing
11:11I think
11:11the Indian
11:12discourse
11:12gets wrong.
11:14Certainly,
11:15the Indians
11:16are right
11:16to complain
11:17about the
11:18rise in
11:19energy prices,
11:20especially since
11:21they had no
11:22say given
11:23the unilateral
11:24action of
11:25Donald Trump's
11:26decision to
11:27go to war.
11:28But,
11:29while it's
11:30all well and
11:31good to
11:31hand-wring
11:32over the
11:33American
11:33decision
11:34and over
11:35international
11:36law,
11:36there needs
11:38to be much
11:39greater
11:39discussion
11:40within
11:41India
11:42about what
11:43India is
11:44going to
11:44do to
11:45achieve the
11:46capabilities
11:47which America
11:48has now
11:49demonstrated.
11:51Because the
11:51fact of the
11:52matter is,
11:53as India
11:53rises as
11:55an economic
11:56power and
11:57frankly as a
11:58global power,
11:59the knives are
12:00going to be
12:01out in
12:01Pakistan,
12:03in China,
12:04and elsewhere,
12:05and India
12:06can't get
12:07caught simply
12:09hand-wringing and
12:11discussing endlessly
12:12about international
12:13law when it
12:14also needs to
12:15develop its
12:17military capability.
12:18The last point,
12:20which has come
12:20under discussion,
12:22which is truly
12:23interesting and in
12:24many ways could be
12:25a diplomatic
12:26game-changer,
12:27is there are a
12:28lot of rumors
12:29now that the
12:31missile,
12:32missile, which
12:33shot down the
12:34American F-15,
12:36was provided by
12:37Turkey to
12:38Iran.
12:39It wasn't an
12:41indigenous Iranian
12:42missile.
12:43And if this is
12:44confirmed, then
12:46there is going to
12:47be an even
12:48greater crisis
12:49within NATO.
12:54now, if the
12:56talks don't get
12:57through, do
12:57you see
12:58Pakistan
12:59providing
13:00any kind
13:01of ground
13:02support to
13:03the U.S.
13:04military to
13:06carry out
13:06its operations
13:07against Iran?
13:09No, and I
13:10don't see the
13:11Pakistanis doing
13:12anything, for
13:15diplomatic reasons,
13:16I don't see the
13:17Pakistanis doing
13:18anything, and
13:18frankly, the
13:19Pakistanis don't
13:20have capability.
13:21The Pakistanis,
13:22like the
13:23Iranians, are
13:24experts.
13:25I rate them
13:2610 out of 10
13:27in fantasy, and
13:29in bragging about
13:30capabilities they
13:31don't have.
13:32But when push
13:33comes to shove,
13:35they're 1 or 2
13:36out of 10 in
13:37their ability to
13:38actually achieve
13:39what they claim.
13:40Now, the
13:41biggest, another
13:42diplomatic story
13:43out of this
13:44conflict is just
13:46how disappointed
13:47Saudi Arabia is
13:49in Pakistan.
13:51Because Saudi
13:52Arabia was
13:52attacked when
13:54it was sitting
13:54on the sidelines
13:55of this conflict.
13:56And just a few
13:57months ago,
13:58Pakistan and
13:59Saudi Arabia
14:00signed a so-called
14:02mutual defense
14:02alliance.
14:03Some people are
14:04talking about it
14:05being an Islamic
14:06NATO.
14:07I mean, in
14:08reality, it's
14:09an Islamic
14:09no-go.
14:10Because when
14:11Saudi Arabia was
14:13in its hour of
14:14need, Pakistan
14:15simply made up
14:16some excuses.
14:17And sometimes
14:18those excuses
14:19were just empty
14:20diplomatic rhetoric.
14:21But let's also
14:22face it.
14:23When Pakistan
14:24is bombing
14:25Kabul and
14:26pretending that
14:27they're in
14:28a much greater
14:29and more
14:32existential
14:33conflict with
14:34the Taliban
14:35than they're
14:35in, what
14:37Pakistan is
14:37really doing
14:38is just
14:38creating an
14:39excuse not
14:40to have to
14:41fulfill their
14:43diplomatic bargain
14:44with Saudi
14:44Arabia.
14:45So, I mean,
14:46let's be frank.
14:48To make a
14:49military alliance
14:50with Saudi
14:51Arabia makes
14:53about as much
14:54sense as
14:55making a
14:56military alliance
14:57with Papua New
14:58Guinea.
14:59the only
14:59difference is
15:00that Papua New
15:01Guinea might
15:01have a more
15:02capable military
15:03at this point.
15:05Right.
15:06Your closing
15:07remarks,
15:08anything that
15:09you'd like to
15:09add to what
15:10we heard from
15:11the president
15:12in the next
15:1224 hours?
15:13Not even
15:1424, less
15:15than that now.
15:16No, look,
15:17I mean, the
15:18bigger, what I
15:19would say with
15:20regard to this
15:21war is
15:23that never
15:26before have
15:28I seen such
15:29a divergence
15:29between military
15:32domination on
15:33one side
15:33and influence
15:35domination on
15:37the other.
15:38The Americans
15:39have shown,
15:40despite arguments
15:41that we don't
15:42have strategic
15:43patience,
15:44that we are
15:45capable of
15:46bombing with
15:47extreme precision
15:48and decimating
15:50targets.
15:50We control
15:51Iranian air
15:52space.
15:53At the same
15:54time, because
15:55of Iranian
15:56bluster and
15:58the willingness
15:59of people to
16:00believe Iranian
16:01bluster, many
16:03people even
16:03believe that the
16:04United States is
16:05losing, which
16:06is absolute
16:07nonsense, given
16:08what we just
16:09pulled off
16:10rescuing the
16:11pilot.
16:12One of the
16:13other issues
16:14which is out
16:15there, and
16:16again, it goes
16:17into the whole
16:17influence operations,
16:20is that, in all
16:21likelihood,
16:22Iran doesn't
16:24have a supreme
16:24leader.
16:26Muchtapa
16:26Khamenei hasn't
16:28been seen, and
16:29the most recent
16:30attempt to
16:31suggest that he
16:31was in Qum
16:32appears to have
16:34been generated
16:34by artificial
16:35intelligence.
16:36How long are
16:38we going to
16:38keep up this
16:40illusion that
16:41Iran is anything
16:43other than a
16:44military dictatorship
16:45under the
16:45control of the
16:46Islamic
16:47Revolutionary
16:47Guard Corps?
16:48the clergy
16:49itself has
16:50collapsed, and
16:52that also is a
16:53story that is
16:54coming out.
16:55The last point I
16:57would make is
16:58that while people,
17:00many people are
17:01cheering for the
17:02United States to
17:03be defeated, and
17:05it's almost like
17:07Gulliver's travels,
17:09and we see this
17:10with NATO, the
17:11United States is
17:12Gulliver, and we're
17:14being tied down, and
17:16many different NATO
17:17countries, Spain, for
17:18example, Austria.
17:20They're basically
17:21acting like the
17:21Lilliputians right
17:22now.
17:23However, they don't
17:25fully understand what
17:26is at stake if
17:28freedom of navigation
17:29isn't restored, or
17:31if Iran is able to
17:32claim victory.
17:33What the Americans
17:35have to reckon with
17:36is just how deep
17:38anti-Americanism is,
17:41not only among our
17:42adversaries, but
17:44among our allies, and
17:46we need to
17:46recognize that the
17:48reason why
17:49anti-Americanism is
17:51so deep is because
17:52of our unilateralism
17:54and because of the
17:56failure over
17:57generations of our
17:58diplomacy, and
17:59because the United
18:00States doesn't
18:03adequately show
18:04respect to our
18:06allies.
18:07India is not
18:08alone in this.
18:10But until the
18:11Americans understand
18:12understand that we
18:13can't go it
18:14alone, we are
18:16going to suffer
18:17much more, not
18:19only in victory, but
18:20also perhaps in the
18:21future in defeat.
18:22in victory.
18:23So, let's do it.
18:23Let's do it.
18:24Let's do it.
18:25Let's do it.
18:28Let's do it.
18:29Let's do it.
18:29Let's do it.
18:30Let's do it.
18:30Let's do it.
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