00:00I don't know if this is sad news or good news that Easter candy sales are down, but where are
00:04you noticing that most?
00:06Well, it's pretty much on chocolate.
00:09No!
00:09I know. It's one of the biggest share compared to non-chocolate.
00:15So obviously the hit is mostly on them, and it's mostly on volumes.
00:20People are pushing back on price increases that have been happening for the past 18 months, and they're being strategic
00:28about their spending.
00:29Is it because chocolate is getting more expensive faster than some of the other items?
00:32I mean, it's one of the few candies I have myself, and I noticed I bought it yesterday, and I
00:40said to the woman,
00:40this is like $9, and she's like, yeah, it's getting really expensive even for us to buy.
00:44Yes, exactly.
00:45I mean, it's because of cocoa prices have been very high, so chocolatiers have had to pass through those price
00:54increases,
00:54but obviously the demand seems to be a little bit on the weaker side because of it.
01:00So we project that, you know, throughout the season, Easter candy sales are going to probably fall about 5%.
01:06So we were talking before we started, and you said this is the week that people buy the most of
01:12their Easter candy.
01:12This is not like Christmas where people plan ahead.
01:14People go, oh, shoot, it's Easter. I've got to buy some stuff.
01:16Exactly, yeah. So this week actually is a third of the purchase of Easter candy that is going to happen
01:23this season.
01:24Yeah, so this is, I guess, the make-or-break week for the holiday.
01:29But, you know, 64% of shoppers actually wait until the next day to get the candy for half a
01:36price.
01:37They're buying that discounted stuff.
01:37They're buying at the discount, which obviously affects sales overall.
01:41We've also got some breakdowns of what people's favorite chocolate brands and non-chocolate brands are for Easter.
01:46Okay, so it's Cadbury. Really? People really like Cadbury eggs?
01:50They absolutely love it.
01:52Do you like them?
01:52Well, a little bit.
01:54I mean, I...
01:55Be honest, be honest.
01:56So it's funny because I actually brought some, you know, Cadbury eggs for the associates here in the department,
02:03and those were the first ones to...
02:06Really?
02:06Yes, so apparently they're very famous.
02:08All right, America. I mean, not my favorite, but to each his own.
02:12Next is Reese's, Hershey, Dove, M&M's, Gier Deli, which is like, I think, kind of fancy chocolate.
02:18Oh, and Kinder Eggs. We used to live in Germany where those are from.
02:21Kinder Eggs are really popular.
02:22And then for non-chocolate brands, we've got Jelly Belly.
02:25Now, those are my favorite.
02:26Those, like, they come out once a year.
02:28They have those carrots full of tangerine jelly bellies.
02:30Have you had those?
02:31Oh, yes, yes. They're good.
02:33They're the best. I can't stop eating them.
02:36Peeps. I'm not convinced anybody really likes Peeps.
02:38Excuse my, Peeps.
02:38Well, not really, no.
02:41They're, like, one of those things you feel like you have to put in the Easter basket, but then they...
02:45But they're 41% of the market share.
02:47I think it's an aesthetics thing.
02:49I think they're just, like, cute, and people want to like them, and then they just taste like sugar.
02:52Sorry, Peeps. I know. I'm going to get, like, canceled for my candy hate.
02:55Sour Patch Kids, I didn't know that.
02:56I don't think that was an Easter candy.
02:58Starburst. How do you feel about Starburst?
03:00Well, I mean, they're good. Some of them are... I like the cherry ones.
03:03Okay, all right. You're pro Starburst. We'll let you stay. It's okay.
03:06Skittles, Swedish Fish, and Nerds.
03:08Oh, that's really interesting.
03:09Yeah.
03:09And then when it comes to overall what people are going to buy this Easter, candy's at the top.
03:1592% say they're going to buy candy.
03:17Food is at 90%.
03:18What are the other things that people are going to buy?
03:21So, they're actually going to buy greeting cards and decorations.
03:25So, those are, like, yes, they want to be on a festive mode.
03:29And, you know, like I said on the note, it's, you know, 90% of people are going to celebrate
03:36Easter.
03:36So, it's a significant holiday for people.
03:39But you say flowers are only 46%.
03:41I know.
03:41So, people are not buying flowers.
03:43Don't you have to give grandma flowers at Easter?
03:45Well, I guess it's because they die soon enough, so.
03:49And they're expensive.
03:50I mean, flowers are also one of the things that I've noticed have really gone up.
03:53All right.
03:54I was reading through this essay of yours here.
03:56And it also says that it's not just kids getting to enjoy Easter baskets.
04:01A Ferrero survey, I'm assuming that's Ferrero Rocher, the, again, fancy chocolates,
04:05found that 66% of respondents think adults deserve an Easter basket as much as kids.
04:1028% buy Easter candy specifically for themselves.
04:13Guilty as charged.
04:14And 64%, as you already mentioned, plan to buy candy on sale the day after Easter.
04:19I mean, adulthood is hard.
04:21Kids have it easy.
04:22Don't we deserve an Easter basket?
04:24That's what 66% of people are saying.
04:28And I agree.
04:29You know, you have to celebrate as much as possible.
04:32Bring some joy to your life.
04:34But, and this, you know, going back to the sales forecast is actually, it is a tailwind for sales because
04:42there's obviously more demand for the candy.
04:44But, again, they are probably, a lot of them are waiting for the next day to get it in promotions.
04:51And even right now, if you walk the aisles, which I tend to do when I visit a grocery store,
04:56I don't know how sad that makes me, but...
04:59I don't think that makes you sad at all.
05:00We're looking for sales.
05:01We're looking for good things.
05:03Well, and I also, you know, I channel check.
05:04So, that is, I noticed that, you know, there's more promotions for the Easter candy.
05:09So, you know, there seems to be a lot of eagerness to move inventory, and that is obviously going to
05:16be the headwind for this season.
05:18So, when you look at the industry as a whole, I mean, sales are down.
05:22Are they down a concerning amount?
05:24Is this really a problem?
05:25Do you think it's a bellwether for the industry, or...?
05:27I would say, actually, you know, basically, our base case scenario calls for a 5%, you know, drop.
05:34But if things are, if people pull back more than what they used to, what they normally do, we're probably
05:42going to see a 9% decrease in Easter candy sales.
05:46And that is significant.
05:47That's pretty significant.
05:48Yeah, that is pretty significant.
05:48I mean, I would imagine there are other holidays.
05:51Is Christmas as big?
05:52I mean, I guess Halloween is like the big candy sale time.
05:54Halloween is the biggest one.
05:54So, will we have to wait until then to see if they can rebound from this?
05:57Well, I mean, Easter will be, I will call it the bellwether for the, you know, at least the summer
06:03months.
06:03And how, you know, the industry will, you know, will behave in terms of candy sales as overall.
06:11But, yeah, this is a significant, you know, holiday for the season.
06:15It's about 10% of candy sales for the U.S.
06:19So, they need to...
06:20I'll tell you what, we'll help the industry out.
06:21I'll get you an Easter basket, and you can get me an Easter basket.
06:24Sounds good.
06:24And we'll be participating.
06:25That's, I agree.
06:27You know, for the good of the economy.
06:28Yes, exactly.
06:29We have to do it for the economy.
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