00:00Argentine farmers at the Expo Agrofair in San Nicolas.
00:04Forecasts of a record harvest and better prices are fueling optimism.
00:09But the war in Iran has caused oil prices to rise faster than crop revenues.
00:14That's squeezing profit margins for grain exporters and not just in Argentina.
00:21We're already seeing it reflected in fertilizers, for example,
00:25where prices are already rising sharply.
00:27And fuel could also be a determining factor here.
00:30Any increase in costs will be passed on to prices.
00:34The shortage of certain grains and other commodities might offset this for us.
00:41But experts believe the sector won't be able to offset the rise in fertilizer prices.
00:49Iran is the world's third largest exporter of urea.
00:52Qatar is second, Oman is fifth, Saudi Arabia is sixth.
00:57So the conflict zone is one of the main fertilizer-exporting regions.
01:01Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, all oil-exporting nations can expect higher revenues.
01:06Argentina as well with its Faca Muerta fracking area.
01:09But there is a risk of local inflation.
01:12This rise in fuel prices comes at a bad time as it will push inflation upward
01:17because fuel costs affect a large part of the cost structures across all production chains.
01:24Rogelio Frigerio, an economist and governor of one of Argentina's major agricultural provinces,
01:30is trying to remain optimistic.
01:33I hope the war will be very short-lived.
01:35In general, there is an increase in commodity prices and in that regard,
01:38Argentina obviously has enormous competitiveness.
01:41Argentina is on the path to becoming a country, not one with oil, but an oil-producing country.
01:46And that, of course, is always a safeguard against these conflicts.
01:51Outside of Expo Agro, motorists in Argentina and other countries such as Peru are paying up to 10% more
01:58for fuel,
01:59while Brazil, Mexico and Chile are trying to moderate the price hikes.
02:03U.S. Bank Goldman Sachs expects higher inflation in Latin America
02:07and has revised its growth forecast for Mexico downward,
02:10but kept its forecast for Argentina unchanged and even revised its forecast for Brazil upward.
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