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00:00Hello everyone, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shakil. As the war in West Asia escalates,
00:05India feels the heat. But amidst the crisis, the Modi government chaired an all-party meet today.
00:12In the meeting that lasted for one hour and 45 minutes, the government assured all parties
00:17that India's energy security remains stable and additional shipments are on the way,
00:24which will arrive within a week. But it's not the government's statement on the war that has
00:29grabbed eyeballs, but its statement on the rogue nation and the neighbour, Pakistan,
00:34that's eyeing the big mediator role. Sources have told India today that External Affairs Minister
00:41Dr. S. Jai Shankar during the meet made it clear that India cannot act as a broker nation,
00:47quote unquote, like Pakistan. This after the opposition raised concerns over Pakistan's role,
00:53or should I say alleged role, in mediating talks between the United States, Israel and Iran.
00:59To know what all happened today in this very crucial meeting, which was chaired by Defence
01:02Minister Rajnath Singh, take a look at this report.
01:12War in West Asia and India is feeling the heat.
01:16Amid concerns over LPG and fuel supplies, the Modi government convened an all-party meeting
01:22to assess the situation.
01:25Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the meeting and sought to allay fears,
01:29stating that India has adequate energy security.
01:34Sources say External Affairs Minister S. Jai Shankar briefed leaders on the PM's recent conversation
01:39with Donald Trump, underlining that India has pushed for an immediate end to the conflict,
01:44as it is impacting the entire region.
01:48On the question of Pakistan's possible mediation between Iran and the United States,
01:53Jai Shankar made India's position clear, that India cannot be a Dalal nation.
01:58The government also indicated that such back-channel dynamics are not new,
02:03suggesting that America has, for decades, engaged Pakistan in maintaining communication channels with Iran.
02:10On the energy front, the government reassured all parties that supply lines remain intact.
02:16At least four LPG-laden ships are expected to reach India via the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
02:24Now, the State of Hormuz in Pashim, the people of India have provided the согrable and peeled ground.
02:53During the meeting, opposition leaders questioned the reasons behind the U.S. and Israel's strikes
02:58on Iran. The foreign secretary responded that the attacks were linked to Iran's nuclear
03:03activities. However, the opposition is now demanding a detailed discussion in parliament,
03:09with some leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the government's responses.
03:51Notably, the TNC skipped the meeting. As more details emerge, one thing is clear. India is
03:58speaking in a firm, decisive voice, setting its terms as the West Asia conflict intensifies.
04:05Bureau Report, India Today.
04:10Now let's shift focus to what exactly is happening in this ongoing war. The big question on everyone's
04:15mind is, what will it take to stop this war? And hours after Tehran received a 15-point proposal
04:22from the U.S. to reach a ceasefire in the war via Pakistan, Tehran has drawn the red line by
04:28issuing
04:29its own sets of demands. What are both these stakeholders saying? And will this war see an
04:36end? Or is this just posturing before another escalation? Before I bring in my guest, take a look
04:42at this report.
04:54On day 26 of the war, talks have taken centre stage. According to the Western media, the Trump
05:00administration has formally sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan via Pakistan. Remember, Pakistan is
05:07desiring the key mediator role amid the war on Iran. The U.S. proposal seeks major concessions
05:13from Iran. America's core demands include complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear weapons
05:19infra, complete and permanent halt to all-uranium enrichment inside Tehran, commitment to never
05:26pursue nuclear ambitions, decommissioning of nuclear hubs in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, abandoning
05:33all proxies of Iran in stopping their financing, opening the state of Hormuz as free maritime
05:39zone. The list of demands also includes limiting Iran's missile arsenal.
05:48The framework largely mirrors a 2025 proposal that Iran had rejected earlier, raising doubts
05:54over any real breakthrough. Meanwhile, in a cryptic post, Donald Trump has praised Iran,
05:59calling the payoff a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.
06:04What it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people. Because, you know, you don't
06:08know, because the leadership was killed, all gone. Khomeini, all gone. As the expression
06:14goes, the past Supreme Leader. And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up, at a minimum
06:21racked up pretty good. They gave us a present. And the present arrived today. And it was a very
06:29big present worth a tremendous amount of money. The air campaign that we've conducted, that
06:34Israel's conducted alongside us, was one for the history books, truly. And it's because
06:38we have a president of the United States that, when he sends his war fighters out to fight,
06:42he unties their hands to actually go out and close with and destroy the enemy as viciously
06:47as possible from moment one. In response, Iran has reportedly laid down its own sweeping conditions.
06:55Tehran has demanded immediate ceasefire and right to nuclear power and missile program. It
07:01is also demanding an immediate ceasefire before any talks. Full recognition of Iran's autonomy
07:07and an end to regime change efforts. It has also sought compensation for war damages and
07:12binding security guarantees. Despite talk of a pause, signs of escalation persist in West
07:20Asia. Donald Trump appears to be pursuing a dual strategy. Dialogue on one side, escalation
07:27on the other. The US is boosting its military presence with additional naval and troop deployments,
07:34signalling readiness for a prolonged conflict. Reports suggest up to 3,000 troops may be deployed.
07:42In response, Iran has issued a direct warning, saying it is closely monitoring the US buildup.
07:49Tehran is also cautioned that Washington could become a victim of Benjamin Netanyahu's decisions,
07:54reiterating its claim that the US is acting at Israel's behest.
07:59So what's actually happening on the dialogue front? What does the US want and what are Tehran's red lines?
08:07So far, there is no clarity. Bureau Report, India Today.
08:16I am going to go to Riyadh from where Dr. John Asfakyanakis, who is the Chief Economist at the Gulf
08:23Research Centre,
08:25is joining me live. He is also a fellow at the Chatham House in London. Thank you so much for
08:31your time.
08:31From your vantage point, tracking Gulf macro-fiscal dynamics and oil policy, how do you interpret
08:39Washington's dual-track strategy of military deployment combined with diplomatic signalling?
08:47Does this approach primarily aim to underwrite a negotiated outcome that preserves energy?
08:59Well, it tries to preserve energy, but also it tries to preserve US credibility standing in the world economy
09:08and also in the Gulf countries and the wider Asia economic landscape.
09:14Remember that negotiations, as you've said quite rightly, are in parallel to the deployment of troops,
09:24in parallel to also the possibility of using special forces to open up the Straits of Hormuz.
09:33This has happened in the past. Remember, this war has started whilst negotiations were taking place in Oman.
09:42That's right. And all of a sudden, that night of the 28th of February, the attacks began.
09:50Dr. Asfakyanakis, are markets buying the calm or quietly pricing in escalation across oil equities
09:59and also capital flows in the Gulf?
10:04Our markets are buying the dip. They're buying that there is going to be some kind of a settlement coming
10:11up.
10:12And as you've seen, oil prices have dipped quite a bit, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent in terms of
10:20crude oil.
10:21And also you have seen in US equities and equities around the world, there has been a relief rally.
10:28But having said that, volatility is there. Markets could change very quickly.
10:33Certainly, if they hear that the negotiations are not going anywhere, then that could very well change within a minute
10:41or two.
10:42You're joining me from Riyadh in Saudi Arabia.
10:45How should this be seen from the context of economies of Saudi, UAE and Dubai?
10:55I think that what we have seen with the Gulf economies is that there is resilience.
11:02No doubt, the war has impacted them because they're sitting in the middle, being attacked for no real reason,
11:09other than what we hear from the Iranian side, that because they have bases,
11:15the US, America has bases in many of these countries, we will hit the Gulf countries.
11:21The Gulf countries have never been an aggressor.
11:24So there is no justification for this.
11:27But having said this, the Gulf economies are sitting in a pool of wealth.
11:33They're sitting on more than $5 trillion worth of sovereign investments around the world.
11:40And they have been far more resilient today than 20, 30 years ago.
11:46So I'm very optimistic.
11:48However, the short-term effect is that these economies are impacted.
11:53Remember, they're exporting oil and natural gas.
11:57A lot of it goes to India.
11:59That impacts their revenue base.
12:02But they are standing from a very positive platform, a pool of money that they can deploy.
12:08The Gulf countries and the Gulf economies will not remain the same as we know and knew them prior to
12:16the war.
12:16They're going to be far more self-reliant.
12:19They will build the local economies and localization.
12:22And they're going to take this crisis, this war, as a lesson for them to be far more diversified
12:30within the geographical mix and also to look at India as a point of relationship and link of strategic nature
12:41coming into the future.
12:42We'll speak about India in just a bit.
12:44But since you're talking about resilience on the state of Hormuz, let's talk about that.
12:50But in a prolonged standoff, who has the stronger economic hand?
12:55Iran's disruption threat or the Gulf's resilience and also diversification?
13:03Now, I think that the Gulf is going to withstand all this quite well.
13:08And if you look at Iran, Iran, from a strategic standpoint, has been majorly impacted.
13:16We have seen that most of their infrastructure has been affected.
13:20Water, oil, electricity, and if the war continues, Iran will look very different and far, far more impacted than any
13:32other Gulf nation.
13:34Having said that, yes, they can unleash missiles and rockets to the Gulf countries,
13:39but the Gulf countries have more debt and more wealth than Iran.
13:45Remember also that Iran is functioning from many years of sanctions.
13:50And they, too, need the oil revenue.
13:53They, too, need to be part of a global economy.
13:57Yes, they have links with China and India.
13:59Yes, they can export today oil from the Straits of Hormuz to India, to China.
14:05But notwithstanding that, the localization efforts of the Iranians have not been that great.
14:11The local economy, the Iranian economy, has been suffering from huge inflation, huge currency weakness.
14:19And we all know that when you have inflation and currency weakness, that doesn't last for too long in terms
14:27of the negative effects.
14:28And your people are majorly impacted.
14:31So I don't think over the long term Iran can withstand this.
14:34Okay, are Gulf and international markets potentially underpricing the tail risks to tourism, foreign investment, and also business confidence?
14:44And those who may be planning in the GCC, the overall macro fiscal?
14:51No doubt.
14:53Nobody can deny that Iran has shown its strength, its teeth.
14:58And for that reason, there has to be a negotiated settlement.
15:01And for that reason, the U.S. today has shared a 15-point agreement.
15:06And there has to be some kind of reconciliation for the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.
15:12There is no doubt in mind that the battle might have been won by the U.S., but the war
15:20on the strategic side has been lost.
15:24And we need to see the global repercussions that this is creating for everyone.
15:29And certainly, the Straits of Hormuz show to everybody how important it is for global trade and also how important
15:38energy is.
15:39Because we've taken out from the global energy market 20% of oil and natural gas.
15:47And for India and for China, as well as South Korea and Japan, this is a lifeline.
15:52This oil that has been lost cannot be easily replaced.
15:56There is no oil.
15:58And despite the drastic measures that the world has taken to release strategic reserves from the U.S., from the
16:06IEA, from other countries, it is still not enough.
16:09If this war continues, oil is going to rise.
16:14And oil will remain high for a very long time because we have to replenish that oil.
16:21So oil at 60, I think, is an impossibility if this war continues.
16:26Oil at 60 dollars a barrel.
16:29We might not see it for a very long time.
16:32Since you speak about India, and India has managed to ensure that some of its ships, naval ships, are able
16:37to, you know,
16:39pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
16:40And that certainly is a big diplomatic victory for India.
16:45Can India then play as the peacemaker, particularly because of its human capital in Gulf?
16:53You're very well said in the point that the human capital, India, has been providing strategic human capital throughout the
17:02Gulf.
17:02And that will continue.
17:03And it's very important.
17:04I might say that the interlocutors could be India, possibly, but there are others like Oman.
17:12There are others who have been doing that for quite some time.
17:16But India is a very important bridge, and it could be seen as an element of neutrality that brings the
17:24two parties.
17:24So far, I think that India has played it very well, and it played its cards very well in order
17:32to promote Indian interests,
17:34but also as a strategic bridge of trade and advice for the entire Gulf population.
17:41Is there a real risk that this military buildup is, in fact, laying the groundwork for a limited or full
17:49-scale ground operation?
17:51Or is this primarily signaling to force Iran into concessions at the negotiating table?
17:57Of course, I'm talking about the proposal which has been sent by Donald Trump.
18:03Well, I think that one cannot deny that this is a tactic that we have seen in the past,
18:09and there is an element of taco for President Trump to chicken out, and that is a possibility.
18:17But at the same time, we have seen that the American side, President Trump, does work in parallel environments and
18:26scenarios.
18:26So it could be that today he's presenting the 15-point plan for negotiations,
18:34and it could be that in parallel they're going to deploy special forces troops for a limited boots-on-the
18:42-ground campaign.
18:43And it could be done in the following way.
18:46It could be that come Friday, Saturday, there is no response from the Iranian side.
18:52President Trump in America says, well, I've offered them something and nothing has eventuated,
18:58so I'm going to deploy forces because I have to open the Straits of Hormuz, and I'm going to take
19:04action.
19:04And action begins over the weekend, and then we come back on Monday,
19:08because the weekend is the preferred option for heightened activity, because markets are shut.
19:15So we will see the effect on Monday, oil spikes, it goes from 89 WTI or 98 Brent to 130
19:25and 40,
19:26and then we continue far more in that limelight rather than negotiating.
19:33And then we go back.
19:35Remember also that we are in a prison's dilemma in many ways.
19:39You need to escalate in order to negotiate.
19:42And it could be that this is one tactic where President Trump is using to negotiate.
19:49Yet we hear that the Iranians are not so welcoming on the negotiating table.
19:55I think the next two days are very crucial.
19:57But as you said, it could be a tactic to enforce greater escalatory power on the ground.
20:05Okay, that brings me to my last question on the show tonight.
20:07Is energy security the real battlefield here?
20:10Because it's the price of the oil which is deciding the trajectory and the direction of this war?
20:18Definitely.
20:19Energy security is at the crux of the matter.
20:22Because once the Straits were shut, immediately markets reacted.
20:27Before, during the initial campaign, the impact on the global economy was far less observable.
20:36Markets, yes, got impacted.
20:38Oil went up.
20:39But oil didn't spike to 120.
20:43And that was an issue.
20:44And today, we're seeing that energy and trade flows play a crucial part for all of this.
20:51India would not be asking questions.
20:53Where is my oil?
20:54Where am I buying oil?
20:56And luckily, India has an excellent relationship with Russia.
21:00And they're able to get Russian oil today, which was unsanctioned.
21:05So another great beneficiary is Russia today.
21:09Russia today is benefiting into the tune of $250 million.
21:14They're selling a lot of their oil to India and other Asian countries, but predominantly India.
21:21So at the crux, at the center of all this is yet again energy.
21:26We are not so delinked from energy.
21:29We're still dependent on energy.
21:31And the Gulf is important for that, as well as Russia and other hydrocarbon-producing countries.
21:38All right, Dr. John Esfair Kyanakis joining us there from Riyadh.
21:44Thank you so much for sharing your views.
21:46We are putting out that interview on our website and also on the YouTube channel.
21:51Of course, tomorrow will be another day in this war, which has now entered day 24.
21:57Thanks so much for watching.
21:59We'll track the story very, very close.
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