00:00So it's obviously a really difficult place for economists and anyone who's trying to model kind
00:06of the possible consequences, because we don't know what the few coming days or weeks or even
00:12months might hold for this war. But how are you assessing the damage at the moment and the
00:16longevity of the disruption that we could see? Well, there's no question that the damage has
00:21been immense, not only here in the United States, but certainly throughout Asia, where you are in
00:27Australia. And by the way, it's not just the oil markets. Of course, it's LNG, which many markets
00:34are incredibly dependent upon. So it's been an earthquake, as we all know, in Petroleum 101 or
00:42Energy 101. When something like this happens, the global oil market is in for a shock. And I don't
00:49think anybody didn't predict that Iran has leverage and the leverage is the Strait of Hormuz.
00:57And they will shut and did shut that down as a result of the escalation and of the war.
01:05You know, as far as predicting and, you know, it's very, very difficult. You know, the markets are
01:11nervous, as they should be. We haven't seen the prices rise this high in the global stage for a
01:18very long time. People should be nervous because, you know, last week we were talking about just a
01:24few more weeks. But I'm in Washington, D.C., and that's not what I'm hearing. I'm hearing this.
01:30We might be in for the long run. And there are American troops that have been sent and stationed
01:36in the region. The question is, is there going to be a ground invasion? Are we going to put boots
01:41on the ground? Everyone's nervous. And the bottom line here is the decision makers are very
01:47unpredictable. I am curious because I know you must be having a lot of these conversations.
01:54What are you hearing in terms of what does the long run mean? What are the possibilities that
01:58are being discussed as potential reality at the moment? And also, how does the widening of this
02:05conflict with the proxies impact the broader market? Yeah. So what I'm hearing initially,
02:11obviously, this was a U.S.-Israel war in the beginning. But now our allies in the Middle East
02:20are jumping in, either because they've been attacked or because they want to protect their
02:25interests, certainly. I think it's incredibly concerning that the Houthis in Yemen, an Iran proxy,
02:33have now jumped in. Prior to this, they stayed out of it. Why did they stay out of it? I
02:39think
02:39because they didn't want people to think that they were beholden to the Iranians. But the reality is
02:45they jumped in. And who is it that they're attacking first? The Saudis. And they also, again,
02:51are in danger of controlling the Bab al-Manda strait, which, again, is another choke point for oil
03:01exports. And if they close Bab al-Manda, then we're going to have a problem, a major problem with
03:08supplies. Right. And the thing is that they haven't necessarily said that they would target
03:14vessels, but just the idea that they could will probably lead to the ship owners not really wanting
03:20to send those vessels. Right. How long does it take to redraw the shipping routes and maps now that
03:26you have to avoid so many different bodies of water? Well, it's almost impossible for the ship
03:33owners and the maritime industry to redraw these maps. They cannot all of a sudden change course.
03:41But remember, you know, it wasn't that long ago in March of 2025 when the Houthis were attacking
03:48shipping vessels. So they have the ability to do that, certainly, if they want to. And so,
03:55you know, it's not that easy to redirect things. And also, if you're a shipping vessel,
04:01you're going to avoid that area. Why would you go into harm's way and danger knowing that there's
04:06a war going on? So you're going to have many of these large vessels choosing not to go at all
04:14because of the risk of danger and the high risk.
04:19When can we expect U.S. shale also to start making a difference? Because even if they start
04:24pumping now, the supplies to actually reach the parts that it needs in the global economy would
04:30take time. Yes, absolutely. I mean, anything like shale or powering up here in the United States,
04:37we talk about nuclear, we talk about hydrogen and other alternatives. But something like shale,
04:42sure, when the market gets nervous, there's all sorts of talk. But it would be very difficult
04:47to power up right now and start moving. Look, the reality is we're very well supplied here in the
04:54United States. The issue isn't the U.S. And in fact, the administration hasn't hesitated to tap our
05:01strategic petroleum reserves. We're not all in that danger. It's all of you and the rest of the world
05:08and back to this global oil market that is becoming difficult. So the reality here in the U.S. isn't
05:16supply. It's the price. And we're certainly seeing the price at the gas tank, at the gas stations.
05:23And, you know, we have a lot of other pressures here in our economy. We're trying to come out of
05:28a
05:29recession. You know, there's still problems here with our markets, with our mortgage rates,
05:34with our financial systems and whatnot. So, you know, it's added to this. And that's a problem
05:43because we're going into elections here in November. And the Republicans, who are presently
05:48in power, both in the House and Senate and in the White House, are extremely nervous because Americans
05:52vote with their pocketbook. Americans look at the economy. And this war is affecting the economy
05:59here in the U.S., no question.
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