00:00So my argument is that the country intuitively is going to decide to escalate, it's going to escalate by taking
00:06over Karg Island, continue to bomb with Israel, the leadership of Iran and the military structures and if everything goes
00:13well, maybe the war lasts a little bit longer because of this escalation, but then you could have regime collapse
00:19and while in the short run all prices are going to be higher, if then there is a regime collapse,
00:23then you're going to have a situation that is better for the world in terms of geopolitical stability.
00:28The risk of it is that if you escalate and then the rains are able to continue to block Hormuz
00:34or attack the whole facility of the Gulf, then you end up into 1970s deflation, but I think at this
00:39point it's going to escalate, from his point of view it's worth taking that risk, given the option value of
00:44winning the war.
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