00:00This is being described, what we're going through right now, as the most severe energy shock in modern history.
00:06Does that sound right to you?
00:08First, hello, Tom, and I'm very delighted to be in Al-Arabiya English.
00:13Certainly, it's a statement that I believe all international experts would agree on,
00:17because, look, the IEA has announced it's the largest in history withdrawal from its strategic oil reserves.
00:26That's 400 million barrels that is expected to supply something like 4 million barrels for the next 90 days.
00:34If you look at the crisis here compared, for example, to the 70s,
00:39where historically it's been the largest oil shock that led to, in fact, the formation of the IEA,
00:45we had only disruption in oil.
00:48But in the Hormuzi crisis, we have a supply disruption in both oil and gas,
00:53in addition to multiple strategic commodities supplying the world international trade.
00:58So I believe the knock-on effect here wouldn't just be on energy markets,
01:03but it will also have a dramatic impact on the world economy as a whole.
01:07And many analysts would describe this as a shock that compares to the COVID-19.
01:13But the difference here is that during the COVID-19, we had a demand shock.
01:16Now we have a supply shock, which could ultimately bring down demand,
01:22because now we lost more than 10 million barrels in supply.
01:25So that means demand will have to adjust to that supply shock.
01:28So ultimately it can mean slowing.
01:30In fact, it could also mean recession over the next several months if this crisis continues.
01:38In fact, it could also mean recession over the next several months if this crisis continues.
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