00:00Mark, what do you make of Micron?
00:04Obviously, incredible earnings.
00:06And as Anthony just outlined there, the margins there are very impressive.
00:09I think this kind of, you know, reaffirms the story that the AI CapEx bubble
00:15has still got plenty more to inflate.
00:17And, you know, the recent volatility we've seen is just that.
00:21We're in this kind of volatile end phase of the bubble inflation.
00:26And again, that volatile end phase can last for many months.
00:30Again, the benchmark here that we looked at for prior bubbles is normally about six months.
00:34And I'm kind of seeing the start of that happening in May.
00:36So maybe we kind of go through towards the end of the year on the AI CapEx bubble.
00:41Now, that's all just kind of a rough guidance framework.
00:43I think we continue to watch those earnings, future earnings for kind of when we've got a sign that the
00:49CapEx bubble is going to burst.
00:51But until then, as Anthony just outlined, you know, there are names in Asia and Micron also in the U
00:59.S.
00:59that are making real hard money here, like hand over fist.
01:05Mark, is some of the investment flows that we're seeing going into some of those chip makers coming from Bitcoin
01:13and gold and silver?
01:15Or was that much more a dollar story?
01:17Because gold and silver are getting whacked again today.
01:19Bitcoin's at around $61,000.
01:22I think it is more a dollar story.
01:25I think that's a dollar and real yield story.
01:27So with the collapse in oil prices, we're seeing a rapid kind of decline in inflation expectations, inflation swaps, which
01:35means we're not seeing the same kind of the decline in yields is a bit smaller.
01:38And therefore, we're basically seeing real yields stay very elevated compared to the last year or so.
01:44And that combined with the strong dollar is weighing on precious metals and on crypto stocks.
01:50I do think it's true that before we got dips in those kind of assets, retail got excited to buy
01:56into those dips.
01:56But they're just ignoring them.
01:58They're not the fun casino to play anymore.
02:00It is AI meme stocks, which is perceived to be, you know, really high volatility with a positive skew.
02:06And so, yes, there's no attention to buy the dip in those.
02:09But I don't think it's about money directly coming out of them to go into AI.
02:14Inflation data later today.
02:16How could that change the market narrative?
02:21I don't think that's probably, you know, going to be a big issue.
02:26I think this is one that we're kind of expecting.
02:28I think what's more is kind of the Warsh signalling that we get over the next couple of months, knowing
02:32that he doesn't want to provide too much signalling.
02:34But people are going to have got used to the last kind of 15 years of Fed guidance and of
02:39overinterpreting everything muttered by Fed officials.
02:41And I think that's quite a weird setup where we're going to have Warsh trying not to guide the market.
02:46But he will be kind of all his words will be parsed.
02:48And I say that in reference to the fact of Cintra next week.
02:51And I think that's more relevant than the backward looking data on inflation, given that the inflation dynamic is changing
02:57very rapidly with the way that oil prices are coming down very quickly.
03:01So we're seeing a real kind of change in scenario that we were assessing even only a month ago.
Comments