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NewsTranscript
01:00First of all, I want to ask you that the news coming out of DC mostly, and now there is
01:04confirmation on the Pakistani side as well, is that Islamabad could be one of those places where these negotiations might
01:12lead up to, actually.
01:15I want to know what actually were the circumstances which made Donald Trump post that statement on TrueLine and in
01:27terms of what the implications of that are and whether that will hold or not.
01:33Well, I think the reason Donald Trump indicated that he's looking for a diplomatic off-ramp is because there's a
01:39lot of economic pain that's being felt, and they don't have a clear end state.
01:44I mean, the Israelis definitely want to see some kind of regime change, but for the United States, the end
01:50state of this conflict was always left undefined, and I think there was a bit of naivete within the administration
01:56that this would be an easy operation or that there might be some kind of uprising inside Iran, and that
02:02hasn't come to fruition.
02:03So now I do think they're looking for an off-ramp because the Iranians have been able to inflict real
02:09economic pain in the Gulf and in the United States.
02:13But in terms of, you know, the United States, what is the internal political scenario?
02:19Because we keep on hearing about it in Pakistan from the larger scale on what the global perspective is.
02:25But what are the internal politics within the United States that are driving these factors?
02:31Well, the internal politics, I mean, about the war is that the majority of Americans don't support the war.
02:38Or the latest polling I saw, and I do take polling with a grain of salt, is that only 7
02:45% of Americans would support U.S. troops in Iran.
02:48Remember that President Trump campaigned about no new wars in the Middle East, and then he launched one.
02:55I believe the Trump administration thought they could replicate what they did in Venezuela, and this would be a very
03:00easy operation.
03:01It hasn't turned out to be that way.
03:05And midterms are coming up.
03:07So I think President Trump is afraid of essentially losing Congress to the Democrats if he doesn't resolve this conflict
03:17soon.
03:18But in terms of the implications for the United States also, if you can tell our viewers,
03:23that what sort of implications, financial, agricultural, economical, even the oil economy,
03:29what sort of implications does this war have, and what sort of measures have been taken even before plunging into
03:35this war for the protection of all of it?
03:37Well, the short answer is I don't think any measures were really taken before the war was launched, because I
03:42don't think they had long-term planning.
03:44You know, in terms of the kind of implications that Americans feel, I mean, I personally felt it a couple
03:52days ago when I went to go fill petrol in my car.
03:56Gas prices have gone up.
03:58The other implications, you know, life in the United States has remained normal, but I think there's intense pressure on
04:05the Trump administration from his Gulf partners,
04:08because the implications there are far more extreme.
04:11You know, the Gulf countries rely on being transit hubs.
04:15That's come to almost a grinding halt.
04:17They rely on tourism.
04:19They rely on being a safe location for the rich people of the world to park their capital, and all
04:25of that has come under threat.
04:27So I think actually the greater pressure might be from the Gulf allies, but there is some pressure within the
04:34United States, including from President Trump's own conservative partners.
04:40And a lot of that has to do with rising gas prices and the fact that there have been U
04:43.S. casualties.
04:45I agree with that in terms of – but when you look at Donald Trump's ascension into the office, he
04:50said that he would end foreign wars, and there were several economic measures that he had promised.
04:56How do you see that the internal dynamics with this voting that will take place, how would this war affect
05:04it?
05:04And do you think that the analyses and the polls so far, do they favor Donald Trump?
05:09From what we're hearing, it's not so easy.
05:12No, the polling isn't favoring Donald Trump, although, again, I always take polling in the United States with a bit
05:18of a grain of salt.
05:20I mean, people will vote based on the economy, but they also vote based on culture wars, and it's going
05:26to depend on how voters view the candidates that the Democrats are putting forward in the midterms.
05:31You know, if I was a betting man, I would say that Congress does swing in favor of the Democrats
05:39during the midterms, but we just don't know.
05:42This war is not popular in the United States.
05:45A lot of people have pointed out that there haven't been anti-war protests.
05:49That's true.
05:50I think Americans are burned out, and I think Americans – you know, we're not actually a huge protest society,
05:58at least contemporary America.
06:00There have been some major protest movements in the last, you know, six or seven years, such as the Black
06:05Lives Matter protests.
06:06But in general, Americans don't take to the streets over foreign policy issues.
06:13Gaza was an exception, actually, in terms of the student protests that occurred at universities across the United States.
06:20But in general, there aren't large protests related to foreign policy.
06:24That doesn't mean that Americans support this war in Iran.
06:28Overwhelmingly, they don't.
06:29So in terms of the economic forefront that we see and that's being debated, do you think that the United
06:38States requires an exit more than Iran?
06:40Because Iran has actually made it very clear that they don't want a unilateral – I mean, the U.S.
06:47started the war, and it was not that them started it, and they'll be the one who will end it.
06:51Do you think that's just rhetoric and behind the doors, they're also serious in ending this war?
06:56Well, they should be serious in ending the war because they're dealing with a very unpredictable administration.
07:01I think the Iranians made some mistakes, although I put the onus of the diplomatic failure on the Trump administration
07:11because they literally blew up diplomacy twice.
07:13But I think the Iranians made some mistakes in the months leading up to this latest round of strikes in
07:20which they were taking a much more maximalist position than perhaps they should have.
07:26And I think they had time with the Trump administration, and they simply didn't think that the Trump administration would
07:32assassinate the supreme leader or do something of that gravity.
07:38And so I think they should come to the table.
07:41But I think the difference is that, first of all, the Iranian regime is not accountable to elections in the
07:47same way that the Trump administration is.
07:50Secondly, I think they've consolidated power, and they're perhaps even less afraid of a protest movement than they were before.
07:58The Iranian people haven't overthrown the regime, and that's just a fact.
08:02It doesn't mean that they support it, but they haven't overthrown it.
08:05And then, you know, lastly, I think the Iranians' view preventing this from happening again is in their vital interest.
08:12And so they're not going to agree to something unless they feel very confident that the Trump administration won't come
08:19back and launch a war six months later because, you know, they might not be able to survive this twice.
08:25Whereas the Trump administration, especially President Trump himself, I think, you know, he's had his fun, and now he wants
08:33to make this go away.
08:34But the perception overall is that the war was initially fought under the impression that the Israelis were pressuring the
08:41United States.
08:42How much value does this hold, and is it actually the impression true?
08:48I think the Israelis did pressure the United States, but I think we should be careful not to take agency
08:55away from President Trump.
08:56I mean, he's the final decision maker.
08:58He has said no to the Israelis in the past.
09:01He can say he could have said no.
09:03He can say no again.
09:05I do think the Israelis pressured the Trump administration.
09:09But I also think President Trump himself had a certain ego and hubris in which, you know, very recently he
09:16had essentially kidnapped Maduro from Venezuela, and Delcy Rodriguez had become the new head of state and was essentially a
09:27yes woman to the United States and was willing to agree to anything the United States said.
09:31And I think that made him a bit arrogant, and he thought he could repeat that in Iran.
09:38But Iran is a far more complicated country, and the regime is far more robust than the Chavistas in Venezuela.
09:46And I think some of this just had to do with an impulsive decision on the part of the Trump
09:52administration, and they thought this would be a lot more easy to achieve.
09:57I think the Israelis knew that it wouldn't, but they were willing to convince President Trump to come along for
10:04the ride.
10:05And for the Israelis, it makes, you know, when they have Iranian strikes occurring in Damona and there's civilian casualties,
10:13that's a price they're willing to pay.
10:15Because from the Israeli perspective, they see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remove the Iranian regime, who they
10:23view as the head of the snake.
10:25I mean, they view the Iranians as responsible for all of their troubles.
10:30We'll flip back to Afghanistan, Adam. We just need to take a short little break.
10:35Nاظرین, this time is over a short break.
10:37If I understand what Adam said, what did he say?
10:41In their近est of America, this war is a unpopular war.
10:44That's not the common people in this war.
10:47Only 7% of America's pole, Adam told them that they are in Iran's war and in Donald Trump's policies.
10:56But it's not external factors.
10:59This is a pressure that Donald Trump or Israel's side of the country.
11:04Because 40 years ago, Israel's development of Iran's diplomacy is in Iran's war.
11:09And this time, he has been able to use its power to use.
11:15He has been able to use it.
11:16That American president to convince him that he will attack him.
11:26It's a long term planning, it's a war.
11:51a very important point
11:53that the mid-term elections
11:55are going to be in America
11:57and the war is going to be
12:00Donald Trump's congress
12:01is going to be a problem
12:04that can become a problem
12:06and we will come back
12:06to Afghanistan's issue
12:08and we will talk about our side
12:11Welcome back, Nazreen
12:12Adam, there is another conflict
12:14that's begun before the Iranian
12:17conflict was in hindsight
12:18and that's the operation
12:21that Pakistan has launched
12:22inside Afghanistan
12:23Ghazab-l-Haq
12:24which it says
12:25is a counter-terrorism operation
12:27to end all those elements
12:29that have been supported
12:31by the Taliban
12:32and the cross-border terrorism issue
12:35has been massive in Pakistan
12:37because statistics for themselves speak
12:39I want your perspective on this
12:41there's a lot of theory going around
12:43that it seems like
12:45both of these were planned
12:46do you think that there is
12:48any truth to all of it?
12:50No, I don't think there's a semblance
12:52these operations
12:53if I understand the question correctly
12:55that the operations
12:57the counter-terrorism operations
13:00against the TTP
13:01and the operations against
13:04that are going on in Iran
13:05are somehow both planned
13:07or coordinated in some sense
13:09Yeah, that's the conspiracy theory
13:11that's actually making rounds
13:12and that's what the Taliban media
13:13is pushing
13:14No, no, I don't think
13:16this just represents the two
13:17you know, look
13:18in the case of what's happening in Iran
13:21I mean
13:21that was
13:23completely the
13:24result of the United States
13:26and Israel's planning
13:28and
13:28Iran
13:29make
13:30Pakistan
13:31makes sense
13:31as a mediator
13:32because it has
13:33strong relations
13:34with
13:35both
13:36the United States
13:37and
13:37Iran
13:38and Iran
13:38it's not viewed
13:39as a vassal state
13:40the way that
13:41the Gulf countries are
13:42it doesn't host
13:43US troops
13:44and US bases
13:45and it hasn't been
13:45a victim of
13:47well, of course
13:48it was a victim
13:49of Iranian aggression
13:50in 2024
13:50but it hasn't been
13:51a victim of
13:52Iranian aggression
13:53as a result
13:53of this war
13:54so
13:55that's why
13:56Pakistan
13:56has been chosen
13:57as a potential mediator
13:59no, I mean
14:00that conspiracy theory
14:01has no
14:02holds no
14:03weight
14:04but in terms of
14:05you know
14:06the conflict
14:06or the escalation
14:07with Afghanistan
14:08when we look at it
14:10from a global perspective
14:12minusing the
14:13entirety of its
14:15local dynamics
14:16between
14:16bilaterals
14:17of Pakistan
14:18and Afghanistan
14:19what's the perspective
14:20we haven't seen
14:21a lot of condemnations
14:22coming in
14:23or a lot of
14:23resistance coming in
14:24for Pakistan's
14:25operation in Afghanistan
14:26is it that
14:28people are
14:29sick and tired
14:29of the Taliban's
14:30policy
14:31or is that
14:31everybody diverted
14:32towards somewhere else
14:34well, I mean
14:35it's just the fact
14:36that the world's
14:37attention is distracted
14:39I mean
14:40there was
14:40the Pakistani
14:42airstrikes
14:42in Afghanistan
14:43barely made
14:44a blip
14:45in the news cycle
14:46because the world
14:47was so distracted
14:49with Iran
14:50and other issues
14:51the Afghan Taliban
14:52don't have
14:53a lot
14:54you know
14:55a lot of sympathy
14:55around the world
14:56and you know
14:57they've tried
14:58to play hardball
14:58with the Trump
14:59administration
14:59in terms of
15:00just as an example
15:01in terms of
15:02the U.S. hostages
15:03they have
15:04who they view
15:05as prisoners
15:06and the Trump
15:07administration
15:08hasn't responded
15:09to that tactic
15:10I mean
15:11as usual
15:11I think the Afghan
15:12Taliban
15:16their shoes
15:17have gotten
15:18they've gotten
15:18a little too big
15:19for their shoes
15:20as the expression goes
15:21I mean
15:21they think
15:22they can play
15:23hardball
15:23on the hostage
15:24issue
15:25with the U.S.
15:26with Pakistan
15:27they think
15:27they can play
15:28hardball
15:28on the TTP issue
15:29but I do understand
15:31that Pakistan
15:31is frustrated
15:32because diplomacy
15:33with them
15:34with the Afghan Taliban
15:35haven't worked
15:35so I do understand
15:37that frustration
15:37but even like
15:39the Iranian war
15:40what would be
15:42the ultimate outcome
15:43as an analysis
15:43because you've been
15:44a keen Afghanistan
15:45watcher
15:46what do you think
15:46would be the ultimate
15:47outcome
15:48it doesn't look like
15:49the Afghan Taliban
15:50would give up
15:51the TTP
15:51anytime soon
15:53no
15:54they probably won't
15:55because the TTP
15:56first of all
15:56they have family bonds
15:57with the TTP
15:58ideological bonds
16:00we always
16:01you know
16:03we've always
16:04talked about
16:04the pragmatism
16:05of the Afghan Taliban
16:06but there's a limit
16:07to that pragmatism
16:08as you know
16:09better than I do
16:09they are still
16:11ideological
16:11at the end of the day
16:12and in some sense
16:14I think they view
16:14the TTP
16:15as their own
16:16kind of strategic depth
16:18so I
16:18you know
16:19if I had to guess
16:20I think the outcome
16:21is that
16:23Pakistan is going
16:23to have a tough
16:24tough neighbor
16:25in Afghanistan
16:26for years to come
16:27and that there's going
16:28to be these periods
16:29of peace
16:30followed by escalation
16:31followed by talks
16:32followed by a short
16:33period of peace
16:34followed by an escalation
16:35and that
16:37it's going to be
16:38difficult to deal
16:39with the Afghan Taliban
16:40for years to come
16:41so I think Pakistan
16:42is going to have
16:43to compartmentalize
16:44its foreign policy
16:45a little bit
16:45and we see it doing that
16:47you know
16:47on the one hand
16:48it's a potential mediator
16:50for a superpower
16:51and for its next door
16:53neighbor Iran
16:53and it's seen
16:54as a peacemaker
16:54and it's seen
16:55as a security guarantor
16:56in the Gulf
16:57and on the other hand
16:58it's fighting
16:59a counterinsurgency
17:00in the tribal areas
17:01so we see
17:02these two realities
17:03existing side by side
17:04for Pakistan
17:33thank you very much
17:35and the Taliban
17:36and the Taliban
17:37are
17:37and the
17:38and the
17:40behavior
17:40that they act
17:42that they are
17:42a very big
17:44and they say
17:45that Afghan Taliban
17:47We are going to be very low.
18:16Teregiga Auditums.
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