- 3 hours ago
Liverpool's summer spending continues, with Milos Kerkez arriving from Bournemouth for around £40m. But in a summer that's already seen Arne Slot add Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz to the side, Adam Clery looks at why the Hungarian left-back might actually be the shrewdest move of them all.
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00:00Right, good morning everybody, or just whenever you happen to be watching this.
00:04Adam Cleary here from the Adam Cleary Football Channel, and I'm going to get this in one sentence, right?
00:09Milos Kerkhez to Liverpool for like £40 million.
00:13I think that might be the single best transfer you see all summer.
00:18And I know you might well be thinking that is an absolutely absurd claim to be making this early in
00:23the window.
00:24You need, I don't know, loads of carefully curated footage and some really interesting looking diagrams.
00:30If you wanted to try and back that up, and yeah, yeah we do.
00:40Okay, so the man I have secretly been including in loads of other videos as Serbian Robbo,
00:46and for everybody who has felt the need to ask me why I call him Serbian Robbo when he plays
00:49for Hungary,
00:51because he's Serbian, he was born in Serbian.
00:54That is a Serbian man who represents Hungary at international level.
00:57That would have taken you three seconds to Google.
01:00He was at Milan for a year where he never kicked a ball,
01:02then Alkmaar for a year where he twice played and twice lost against Arna Slott's Feyenoord,
01:08and then at Bournemouth for the last two years where he twice played and twice lost against Arna Slott's Liverpool.
01:15So quite a seasoned player you would say for someone only 21 years old.
01:20Great!
01:22That is still funny to me.
01:24So he's a left-back, and we all know he's a left-back, but what kind of left-back is
01:28he?
01:28Well, specifically the kind that, in my true honest-to-God opinion,
01:33is absolutely perfect for what Arna Slott wants to do with this Liverpool team.
01:39But yes, okay, very good, great question.
01:41What actually is it that he's trying to do?
01:43Well, I went through Liverpool's season, and I would say this is a fairly typical average positions map for them.
01:51I forget what game it is, I'll have it on screen,
01:52but this was the average positions the players ended up taking up in that game.
01:56And while they pretty much always favoured this 4-3-3 shape to start,
02:00I would say this graph pretty accurately depicts how they played within that shape.
02:05And first off, you can see a little bit of drift from Trent Alexander-Arnold towards the centre,
02:09but last season, he wasn't the inverted full-back he'd been in the previous years under Klopp.
02:14His job was, in fact, to play much higher, much nearer the opposition's goal,
02:19to allow Mo Salah to get into this space here, which is, lo and behold, where we find him in
02:24the graph.
02:25And just to massively oversimplify this, as a result of having Salah play much closer to the goal,
02:31he went from 18 Premier League goals in Klopp's last season to 29 Premier League goals the season just gone.
02:37So you'd say that worked.
02:38But let us take a quick look across the rest of the team, like Gravenbirch and McAllister.
02:43Yes, they make sense, because one of them is responsible for ball progression in Liverpool's half,
02:47and the other is responsible for ball progression in the opposition's half,
02:51hence how they're sort of a double pivot, but nicely spread.
02:54Dominic Soberslay and Luis Diaz, they are your primary sort of false nines, pressers.
02:59They took turns doing all these different jobs.
03:01They were very good at that.
03:03They were very important to the system, even if more goals would have been nice.
03:07Aha! But if we look across to the left-hand side of the pitch, you can see the issue that
03:12Slott is trying to solve.
03:13Because even though Cody Gakpo plays as the left-sided forward, he actually operates more like a centre-forward than
03:20either Diaz or Salah do.
03:22And yet, his average position has him much further away from that goal.
03:27He should be the primary box threat.
03:30But if we contextualise this graph by adding Cody Gakpo's heat map from this game,
03:36and again, I would say this is fairly typical of Liverpool over that entire season, not just this one game,
03:41you can see why his average position is way further away than the other two.
03:45He's spending so much of the game in a more traditional left-wing role.
03:51Even though, while he's good at that, it's not the best use of him.
03:54You want him in the box.
03:55And just really quickly, before I show you why Kerkhez is going to help him to fix this, right?
03:59Let's just do a little bit of mental percentages, right?
04:03Look at Gakpo's heat map again.
04:05How much, what percentage of his touches in this game would you estimate are in the final third?
04:12Like, what are we saying here?
04:14About 25%, if that?
04:16And then, of that 25%, how many of those touches would you say are in a more central area where
04:23he can do the most damage?
04:25Again, I'd probably say another 25% on top of that.
04:30So, that's clearly not an efficient way to use his skills.
04:34What would be efficient is if we look at the same graph for Mo Salah,
04:37and what percentage of these touches would you say are now in the final third?
04:41I would say that jumps from about 25% to 50%, so nearly half the time on the ball is
04:47spent in an area he can hurt the opposition.
04:49And again, of that 50%, how much of that is in a central area, not stuck out wide?
04:54Probably about another 50%.
04:56Now, that is way, way better for a player you want to be providing a goal threat.
05:02And obviously, don't get me wrong, Liverpool still won the league, and Cody Gakpo had an excellent season.
05:06So, this does work to an extent, but what Arna Slott is trying to do is improve that.
05:11Because if you can improve that, you improve the team.
05:14So, that then begs the question, why does Mo Salah have this graph and Cody Gakpo have that graph?
05:20And the really simple answer is because Mo Salah was being supported by a far more dangerous full-back.
05:27Whether it was Alexander-Arnold getting into wide spaces to cross the ball,
05:31or Bradley making runs down the outside of him,
05:33Liverpool always felt like they had way more threat last season down this right-hand side.
05:40And that allowed Salah to focus his game more in the areas where he can hurt you.
05:45They did not have that on the left.
05:47Now, it's actually Simakas who started this game in particular,
05:50but this holds true for Andy Robertson as well.
05:53What Liverpool have at left-back right now is a willing runner, is a talented player,
05:58someone who's not a defensive liability, but also not a player who overly troubles the opposition.
06:06And Robertson in particular, like, this is his heat map for the entirety of last season.
06:10You'll see he's finally starting to spend less and less time in this part of the pitch,
06:14and more sort of here, as the years rack up.
06:17And obviously, don't get me wrong, he's only 31.
06:20I still think he's got an awful lot to give this Liverpool team,
06:23but he doesn't have that explosiveness to blow past players anymore.
06:28So he has to be more discerning with when he makes those sorts of overlapping runs.
06:33So on one side of the pitch, you've got a constant, excellent, really, really good threat,
06:37especially now you've got Frimpong in.
06:38And on the other, you've got the same threat, but a lot less consistently.
06:43So if you are on a slot, how do you address this?
06:47Well, what you want to go and get is a player who's incredibly aggressive on the ball,
06:51forces himself into the opposition third almost instinctively,
06:55but at the same time, is robust defensively.
06:58You don't want to add a weakness while you're trying to add a strength.
07:01And more importantly, super, super athletic,
07:05because you want him to do this constantly in every game and play every game.
07:11And genuinely, right, I've really thought about this.
07:13I think if Liverpool were playing a video game with an unlimited money cheat on,
07:17they still could not have gone out and got a better player for this exact role than Milos Kierkez.
07:23And I know I've got this weird lob on for heat maps today, but just bear with me.
07:27If you look at Milos Kierkez last season,
07:30I personally think any player starting in the defence of a team outside the top five, six or seven sides,
07:37spending more of his season in the opposition half than he did his own,
07:42is really, really eye-catching, especially if that team could still defend quite well.
07:48Because ultimately, if you're playing for a team that is not going to dominate the ball in almost every single
07:52game,
07:53then again, just like Andy Robertson with his ageing legs, you need to pick and choose your moments.
07:58You need to be more discerning unless you are either good enough that you know you won't waste the ball
08:03when you get up there,
08:04or athletic enough to recover if you do.
08:07And Kierkez is both of those things.
08:10He is an extremely powerful runner who basically allows the left-sided forward
08:15to just naturally take a more central starting position,
08:18because he will get outside of them so consistently.
08:22It's pretty much just like having another forward there,
08:25even though he's got to travel 60 or 70 yards to join in.
08:28And to illustrate that to my friends,
08:30here is, I think, possibly the single greatest graph Opta have ever produced,
08:34and I have subsequently borrowed.
08:37These are all the overlapping runs done by Andy Robertson,
08:42who I would still argue is one of the best at this and plays for a team that sees loads
08:45of the ball.
08:46The red ones are the successful overlaps he made,
08:49where he went outside of his forward and received the ball.
08:53That's a lot.
08:54Despite his advancing years, despite his diminishing returns as an attacking force,
08:58he still plays for a great team who want him to do this.
09:00I think that's a really solid return for this particular thing,
09:04which is an important thing.
09:06But would you like to see the same graph last season for Milos Kerkhez?
09:12Of course you would.
09:13And yeah, that's pretty good.
09:17So the arrows in grey are just all the supporting runs he made to try and help a teammate out.
09:21Him and Robertson have virtually the exact same number,
09:24like 690 to 700 or something like that.
09:26But in terms of these successful overlapping runs where he goes outside a teammate
09:30and is then found with the ball, thus putting him in a brilliant position,
09:34it is almost exactly twice as many as Andy Robertson.
09:38And remember, he plays for a team that sees the ball less.
09:42So if you want to scale that up in your head, it's way more.
09:46Every single one of those red arrows represents a moment in the Premier League
09:51where Kerkhez wasn't just in the final third to make up the numbers or to be a bit of a
09:55distraction,
09:56but tangibly had the ball in the opposition final third,
10:00putting the f***ing willies up all the other defenders.
10:03Which, yeah, now that I said that, I do really hope is an expression where you come from as well.
10:10Because, yeah, it's a bit weird that one, if not.
10:14But, yes, I digress.
10:16Liverpool fans, you may have noticed we've so far only mentioned Cody Gakpo
10:20in this left-sided conversation and not sexy, exciting summer signing.
10:25Try saying that ten times.
10:27Florian Wirtz.
10:28That's because right now we don't necessarily know where he's going to play.
10:31A lot of people assume it'll be on the left.
10:33There's an argument he could be this left-sided number eight.
10:35I think he'll be a false nine on occasion.
10:38But, if they do use him out here, which seems to be the consensus,
10:44then that would make Kerkhez worth £40 million alone.
10:48Now, you can, of course, refer back to the dedicated Florian Wirtz video we did.
10:52Why not? I thought it was pretty good.
10:54But one of the major takeaways is that he is not a left-sided player.
10:58He wants to play in this half space.
11:01A left-sided ten.
11:03And the reason at Leverkusen they had a back three and wing backs
11:06was to enable these two players to not have to worry about the wide areas.
11:11The wing backs could do that while retaining a stable base behind them.
11:16You thus did not need Florian Wirtz or the other number ten
11:19to worry about what was going on on the touchline.
11:21Obviously, they could drift out there.
11:23Free will is a thing.
11:24But they could focus their play in these sort of channel areas nearer the goal.
11:29See where I'm going with this.
11:30Because both the wing backs would play as the wide players.
11:33Now, I don't think Liverpool are going to play with a back three.
11:36But if you just look at this and you imagine that this is actually
11:40Ryan Gravenberg sitting behind the other two midfielders
11:42but able to drop in if they really need to.
11:45And all of a sudden, that's a very similar sort of setup.
11:49Because you've got Kerkers, because you've got Fringpong,
11:51because you've got Bradley, because you can't get Andy Robertson to do this.
11:55He's still got it in him.
11:56All of a sudden, that narrows the pitch for Wirtz
11:59and it narrows the pitch for Salah.
12:01And just to tie it back to the point at the start of the video,
12:04if you do want to play Wirtz up front or even in central midfield,
12:07none of my business, and you keep Cody Gakpo in,
12:10look all of a sudden where he finds himself.
12:13Much nearer to the goal.
12:15Where he should be.
12:16But, hey, do you know what?
12:17You're right.
12:17This is not a video about Liverpool's tactics.
12:20This is a video about Milos Kerkers.
12:22And is he worth the money?
12:23And should you be excited?
12:24Well, this is where he wants to play.
12:27Imagine how Liverpool will play.
12:28But this is where he wants to play.
12:30What does he do when he's there?
12:32Well, to be blunt,
12:34if you are charged with providing the width for your team
12:36so that a forward can narrow and you're on your strong foot,
12:40if you cannot reliably deliver the ball from that area,
12:43you might as well not be there
12:45because teams will just let you get on with it,
12:47not fearing the cross,
12:48and double up on the actual attacker.
12:50And if we look at Kerkers' numbers from last season,
12:53his success rate for carrying the ball is amongst the league's best.
12:57You're talking top 15, 20% for all his running numbers.
13:00Again, remembering he's not playing for one of the top teams,
13:04so the volume of these will naturally be lower
13:06than it would be at Liverpool.
13:08Expect those to jump up.
13:09And I'll just quickly show you them.
13:10While his passing numbers are not at all impressive
13:14because he's not that kind of fullback,
13:16they do suddenly take an enormous leap up
13:20when you look at purely crossing the ball into the box.
13:24That is his game.
13:26In fact, and we will talk about whether or not
13:28he can actually defend in a second,
13:30don't worry, Dad.
13:31I would go so far as to say
13:33he's one of my favourite crosses of a ball
13:36in the entire division.
13:37He is adept at hitting any sort of cross
13:40from any sort of position.
13:42And I will show you two such examples.
13:45First off, this goal they get against Spurs
13:47is just him in a nutshell, right?
13:49He intercepts the ball,
13:50which does quite a lot
13:51because he reads the game excellently, I think.
13:54He charges forward, looks like he's actually the left forward in this attack.
13:58He's blown past his teammates
13:59and spots this run all the way over here.
14:03And the cross here is just so incredibly early
14:06and just so incredibly deep,
14:08so accurate,
14:09and it just completely murders Tottenham.
14:12Like, I do not think there are many players,
14:15let alone fullbacks,
14:16who can hit that ball
14:17and even fewer of them can hit it while they are running.
14:21But then there's this one from the season before,
14:23which is just completely different.
14:25Again, he sets up Dominic Solanke
14:27and there is no space to hit here.
14:29There is no target area of the pitch,
14:31but he looks
14:32and he hits a perfectly driven low ball into his feet.
14:37And it isn't just a totally different technique for striking the ball,
14:40it's a completely different mental computation
14:43to even think to do it.
14:45And it's so, so rare,
14:47I keep saying this,
14:47it's so rare to find fullbacks
14:49who not only have that sort of variety in their delivery,
14:52but can then execute every element of it consistently.
14:57And yes, just to close this off,
14:58he absolutely can defend.
15:00You are not going to wet the bed looking at his numbers,
15:03but on the old eye test,
15:04yeah, he's just really, really solid.
15:07He almost never gets beaten one-on-one,
15:09is as mentally interested in sprinting back
15:12as he is sprinting forward,
15:14which is a rarer thing than you'd think.
15:15He battles really well,
15:17he covers for his teammates really well,
15:18he can definitely improve in some areas here
15:20and may struggle against the very, very best forwards and wingers,
15:25but he's 21.
15:27That's why you buy 21-year-olds,
15:29so you can put them with better players
15:30and they'll help you improve that.
15:32And he's going to be spending a lot of his time
15:35within a couple of yards of Virgil van Dijk,
15:38which may help.
15:39So yes, just to round up,
15:40an absolutely sensational transfer,
15:42a not-a-ludicrous sum of money,
15:44who can go straight into your first team,
15:46improves that area of the team already
15:48and helps you get more out of what you've got elsewhere on the pitch.
15:52I think, in terms of value for money,
15:55potential and immediate impact,
15:58I genuinely think you are going to struggle
15:59to see a better transfer in the Premier League this season.
16:04Happy to be proven wrong,
16:06and God knows I'll probably do a few more videos
16:08saying transfers are really good,
16:09but right now, it's that one.
16:12It's that one for me.
16:14Thanks.
16:15And of course, you can get me across all the social medias
16:17at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y.
16:19I'm fun everywhere,
16:21not just on YouTube,
16:22so treat yourself.
16:23Go check that out as well.
16:24And yeah, I'll see you next time.
16:27I will...
16:28I can't take this jacket off now
16:29because it's so hot in here.
16:30You do not, you do not,
16:32you do not want to see that.
16:34I'm going to go outside.
16:35Goodbye.
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