00:00But the team that had the most wins in Major League Baseball last year,
00:03oh, it was the Phillies.
00:04Uh-uh.
00:04Oh, the Yankees?
00:05No, no, no.
00:06Oh, the Dodge.
00:07No, it was not.
00:08It was the Milwaukee Brewers who made some changes this year.
00:11And I don't know if they're a better baseball team, Tom,
00:13because you had the most wins in baseball, didn't work out in the playoffs,
00:16then they didn't spend any money in the offseason,
00:18and traded your all-star pitcher here, Freddie Peralta,
00:21to be the ace of the New York Mets in your own division, or should I say league?
00:24Now they're going to take on here.
00:26Mizorowski is going to be that lead dog here, Tom.
00:28A minus-184 price going up against the White Sox without a lot of expectations,
00:32and Mr. Smith will be on the mound for them.
00:34Brewers, a lot of changing parts here, and I don't know if it's for the better, Tom.
00:38I don't know if it's for the better either.
00:40And, you know, looking at their win total this year, you know,
00:43something we talked about a couple weeks ago,
00:45where there's a part of me just wants to take the under on it,
00:47just because they over-exceeded last year leaps and bounds.
00:50It's not like, oh, their win total was 87, and they got to like, oh, 92, 93 wins.
00:54No, they exceeded by such a large margin.
00:57And when we see the differential of the wins at the end of last year
00:59with the win total that they have this year, that gap tells us something.
01:03Like, that differential tells us something,
01:05that they have talent leaving their team in the offseason,
01:09and they're also not really adding any talent to it now.
01:12Do I think the top-tier lineup's pretty good?
01:13I do.
01:14But I also don't know if it's good enough, really, to get them over the hump
01:18and really hit that upper end of the outcomes that they had last year.
01:22So, it's good to see Mizorowski with them for the full season.
01:25It's good to see Churio, you know, coming off of the win with Team Venezuela.
01:28But I have low expectation for the Brewers this year.
01:32I really do.
01:34Yeah, first four in the lineup should be able to do damage.
01:36Churio there.
01:36Terang was really good for USA.
01:38You had Contreras and then Jelic there in that four spot.
01:40But starters for this weekend, I should say, which will be Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
01:45Smith versus Mizorowski, then followed by Burke and Patrick and Kay and Harrison here.
01:49And understand this, too, from a betting perspective, Tom.
01:51First two games we talked about, right?
01:53San Francisco, probably need to be colder temperatures here.
01:55Why?
01:55It's an outdoor place and it's chilly temperatures in San Francisco.
01:58Take a look at the New York Mets.
01:59Depending on which day you get, you might have colder temperatures, some rain in the forecast.
02:02You take a look at Milwaukee and Chicago, Tom.
02:04No issues there.
02:05Why?
02:05It's a retractable roof.
02:06It's cold outside and rainy.
02:08Close that roof here and we'll see what we can have.
02:09But a big favorite on opening day for the Miz, Tom, going up against Mr. Smith.
02:14If we flip it over and keep it in that same division.
02:16The Nationals, not a lot of expectations here.
02:19And what was a proud franchise here, which had a lot of superstar players, they don't have that anymore.
02:24And that's going to be taking on the Cubs, who are the favorites here, to win the Central Division.
02:28Opening day starters, Cavalli going up against Boyd.
02:31The Cubs, a heavy favorite, Tom.
02:33No surprise, at almost minus 200 here.
02:36The Cubs, I think they win a division.
02:38That's where I'm going to start things off with them for this.
02:40That's my outlook for them on the season.
02:42When it comes to this game specifically, you know, Matt Boyd put together a really solid year last year.
02:47And he kind of tapered off as the season went on.
02:50And that was one of the heaviest workloads he's had in years last year.
02:54He pitched 179 innings last year.
02:56Before that, he hadn't pitched more than 78 innings for five-plus years because he just dealt with so many
03:01injuries.
03:01So, you know, that's kind of getting me to thinking, I want to back Matt Boyd early in the season
03:06before some of the attrition gets to him from the season.
03:09Now, I will say, he was absolutely terrible in spring training, Donnie.
03:13Now, obviously, we're dealing with a small 9.1-inning sample size.
03:16But an 868 ERA is terrible.
03:19However, he had an XFIP at 3.9.
03:22And we always like to look at the differential.
03:23We always know ERA, not the stat we want to be looking at.
03:26But it's how that ERA compares and relates to the XFIP.
03:30Donnie, if I told you we had a 3.9 XFIP for the entire season, you would probably say that's
03:34a pitcher we'd probably be looking back at some capacity.
03:37Start in and start out.
03:39So, they are deserving of being this heavy of a favor.
03:42And, man, the Nationals, they are not going to be good this year.
03:46I already have a position on the Nationals to have the fewest wins in the regular season at plus 750.
03:51They are completely devoid of talent.
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