00:00For more, we can speak to Ziad Majid, a professor of Middle East Studies at the American University of Paris.
00:07Professor, thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
00:09First of all, from the official side, what is the Lebanese government to do?
00:15It's supposed to be disarming Hezbollah, already a very difficult task.
00:19Its country is being bombed by Israel, who does not want to negotiate, at least not yet.
00:24So what should the Lebanese government be doing?
00:27As you just said, the Lebanese government situation today or political condition is extremely difficult.
00:34There is a dilemma.
00:35On the one hand, the question of the monopoly of weapon, the decision of making peace or taking the necessary
00:45consequences of any war should be always the one of the state.
00:51But at the same time, under Israeli airstrikes, the continuous bombing of Lebanon, a million people displaced, it's extremely difficult
01:00to transform that into a real policy.
01:02Since the ceasefire in November 2024, the agreement that was related to the 1701 UN resolution with an annex,
01:11the agreement stipulated that while the Lebanese government starts disarming Hezbollah, especially in southern Litani, before generalizing this policy,
01:23Israel should at the same time stop bombing Lebanon and a question of gradual withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territories should
01:31take place.
01:32But as the UN confirmed and as the peacekeeping force in Lebanon mentioned, more than 10,000 Israeli strikes happened
01:40during that period of time,
01:42making it extremely difficult for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah,
01:46knowing that in Lebanon today there is a clear political division regarding the role of the party and its alliance
01:53with Iran.
01:54Also, there is a terrible economic crisis with the devaluation of the Lebanese pound, with the whole banking sector decline
02:04and collapse.
02:06And all of that is adding to the crisis, another one that will keep having its repercussions in the coming
02:15months,
02:16especially with an Israeli rejection of any ceasefire,
02:19and with alarming declarations by Israeli ministers talking about crimes against humanities as if they are just like normal details,
02:29demolishing villages, not allowing people to return,
02:32which is a kind of an ethnic cleansing of South Lebanon by Israel that we are witnessing and might witness
02:39also in the near future.
02:41Israel stated goals to eliminate Hezbollah, but is that possible,
02:46given how deeply ingrained it is into everyday civilian life? Is that realistic?
02:51No, it's not realistic. The Israelis keep comparing what is happening today with their invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
02:59At the time, Hezbollah did not exist. Already they invaded Lebanon in 1978.
03:04Of course, Hezbollah did not exist. Even the Islamic revolution in Iran was not there yet.
03:09But the comparison with 1982 is mainly about the fact that following 1982,
03:15the PLO, the Palestine Liberation Organization, was forced out of Lebanon and its major or main groups were disarmed.
03:25And there was a demilitarization of the Palestinian refugee camps after also a series of massacres committed by Israel
03:33during that invasion against Lebanese and Palestinian civilians.
03:37The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that Hezbollah, even if it's allied organically to Iran,
03:43receives funds and weapons from Iran. Nevertheless, it's a Lebanese party. Its members are Lebanese.
03:50Most of them are from the villages that are being destroyed by Israel.
03:55And in the Lebanese sectarian system, what we call a consociational system,
04:00Hezbollah represents with its ally and rival, the Amal movement,
04:04they represent the majority of the Lebanese Shia.
04:07The Lebanese Shia are around 35 to maybe 37, 38 percent of the population.
04:13So one of the largest minorities in the country.
04:16And they are members in the government.
04:18They are members in the parliament.
04:21Hezbollah manages directly or indirectly dozens of municipalities in Lebanon,
04:25does have a network of hospitals, charity, orphanages.
04:31They have programs for families of their martyrs, of the members as well of the party.
04:37So talking about destroying Hezbollah is just a way of saying we will destroy large parts of Lebanon.
04:45And any case, it's not for Israel to decide how the Lebanese condition and how the Lebanese political situation should
04:54be.
04:54Israel already has committed a genocide in Gaza.
04:57Its prime minister is under arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
05:02And this is not a detail because we keep forgetting about it.
05:06And all its wars are illegal wars.
05:09There are no UN resolutions allowing them.
05:11There is no self-defense allowing it.
05:14Plus, Israel is a nuclear threat to the whole region,
05:17in addition to the fact that according to the International Court of Justice,
05:22its occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and Gaza are considered crime against humanity.
05:29So we are in a situation where international law is totally absent.
05:33Right.
05:33There are problems in Lebanon for sure.
05:36Hezbollah poses problems for the Lebanese society for sure.
05:40There is a need to find a solution, but not through Israeli destruction of Lebanon.
05:45And Professor, just want to ask you, though, you know, as you alluded to earlier,
05:49Hezbollah dragging Lebanon into this war after it carried out retaliatory strikes when Iran's supreme leader was killed.
05:54So we call this a second front of this war in the Middle East.
05:58But are there any assurances that the war, that Israel would stop its strikes on Lebanon
06:04if somehow that war with Iran is concluded?
06:09That's what is a big fear today, is that it's true that between, once again, a reminder,
06:16between November 2024 and Hezbollah's attack on Israel on March 2nd, 2026,
06:22there was more than 10,000 Israeli violations of the ceasefire.
06:26When Hezbollah attacked Israel with some missiles on March 2nd, it was part of opening a second front
06:35and showing that Iran can create throughout the Middle East a situation of war, of tension,
06:42in order to impose negotiations, modify the course of the war.
06:47Now the fear is that there might be a certain disconnection between the Lebanese front and the Iranian one.
06:54Because if Iran, due to Trump's modification of his priorities, of his approach,
07:01if Iran manages to discuss with the U.S. a ceasefire or the end of hostilities,
07:07it's not sure that Israel will stop its attack against Lebanon
07:11because the Israelis are saying they want to create a buffer zone,
07:14they want to destroy all villages on the border with Lebanon,
07:18they want not only to displace people but not to allow them to return,
07:22and they want to continue the war until they destroy Hezbollah.
07:26That's the official version.
07:28Now maybe if America would put pressure on Netanyahu,
07:32if the deal with Iran is also a regional deal about calming down the situation,
07:38about finding compromises here and there,
07:41with also other conditions, especially if we talk about the French initiative,
07:46some of the U.N. suggested ideas about international forces in Lebanon
07:51that will help disarming Hezbollah with a guarantee that Israel will not keep its occupation,
07:57will stop its aggressions on Lebanon.
08:00If all of that is on the table of negotiation,
08:03maybe we will see the end of hostilities in both fronts.
08:07Otherwise, if the Israelis are just like running the war the way they want,
08:12we might have the disconnection and we might see the war going on
08:16and continuing in Lebanon for an unknown deadline,
08:20or it's not clear how it will develop on the ground neither.
08:24Professor, thank you very much for your time.
08:26Ziad Majid, Professor at the American University of Paris.
08:29Professor, thank you very much for your time.
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