00:00As the U.S.'s bombardment on Iran continues, U.S. and Israeli troops have been calling
00:04the country's top leaders with precise missile strikes in an attempt to further weaken the
00:09country.
00:10What started with the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February has spiraled
00:15into an all-out assault on people in the Supreme Leader's inner circle.
00:19Multiple high-ranking Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commanders and regime officials, such
00:24as IRGC Commander-General Mohammad Pakpour and Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nazir Zadeh
00:30were killed in strikes during Operation Epic Fury.
00:34In March, Iranian state media confirmed that Ali Larijani, who is widely seen as the Islamic
00:39Republic's second-in-command, was killed in an Israeli overnight strike in Tehran.
00:44In a more recent strike, Israeli Defense Forces announced on March 20 that Ismail Ahmadi, the
00:51top intelligence official of the Basij paramilitary force, was killed in a missile strike, further
00:56weakening the country's military force.
00:59With both Khamenei and Larijani dead, Iran's clerics elected Khamenei's son, Moshtaba, as
01:04the new Supreme Leader.
01:06But he's not been seen in public since the strike that killed his father, wife, and son.
01:11So why haven't we seen the new Supreme Leader?
01:13And if Moshtaba is dead, who could possibly be running Iran?
01:17We asked an expert.
01:18My name is Kian Taj-Baksh.
01:21I've been at Columbia University as a professor teaching global studies for the last 10 years,
01:27and currently I'm a visiting professor of international relations at NYU.
01:33In Iran, I was the longest-held American citizen imprisoned by the Islamic regime.
01:38I was one of the American-Iranians whose freedom was negotiated in the 2015 nuclear deal.
01:47To understand the structure of the Iranian government, you can imagine two parallel vertical columns.
01:56On the one side is the theocratic institutions, which all fall under the Supreme Leader, the
02:04IRGC, and the clerics.
02:06It is the Islamist part of Islamic Republic.
02:11On the other side, you do have some institutions which look like Western institutions, like an elected parliament, an elected
02:22president.
02:23But the reality is those Republican institutions, which look normal, they are totally subordinated to the other column, which is
02:34all controlled by the Islamic regime.
02:39At the top of the hierarchy is a priest, a Muslim cleric.
02:46He considers himself to be God's representative on earth, and he is referred to as a supreme leader.
02:54But in reality, the way the government works is it is a combination of clerical leaders, military leaders, political elites,
03:06and economic kind of mafia.
03:08It's these four groups that tie together and form the regime.
03:15Many people thought that, I think naively, that when Ayatollah Khamenei, the guy who just got assassinated, that would create
03:24an opening for change in Iran.
03:27That, I think, was naive, and that is a reflection of people who do not understand the internal dynamics and
03:35the leadership structure of Iran.
03:37When the Ayatollah Khamenei died, the official process of selecting a leader falls to a group called an Assembly of
03:50Experts, who have an average age of about 350.
03:56I mean, they're all like complete, you know, non-o-genarians, if that's the right word.
04:01I mean, they're very old. Some of them are over 100 years old, but, you know, maybe they have a
04:07lot of wisdom, you know, who knows.
04:08What was fascinating about this time is that we heard rumors and reports from inside Iran that the IRGC officers
04:19actually threatened some of the senior clerics to vote for the son of the former supreme leader.
04:29The most important thing about the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei is that it represents continuity in both domestic and external
04:40policy of the regime.
04:42That is to say, a selection of someone else could have indicated a change of direction.
04:48It has become more clear, as more evidence has surfaced, that Mojtaba has been involved much more closely and intricately
04:59in the running of the regime over the last five or six or even ten years.
05:05Now, the reason why he hasn't come out is because I think that in the strike that killed his family,
05:11he was deeply, deeply injured.
05:12By all accounts, his leg has been deeply injured, his face has been disfigured, and he may be alive, he
05:22may be dead.
05:23It doesn't really matter at this point.
05:25If he is dead, they will find someone else to take his place.
05:30There is an interesting question about who is running the country right now.
05:35It's safe to say that whatever leadership is left of the IRGC and the political factional leaders, one line down
05:48below Larijani.
05:50There are lots of cadres of like mini Larijanis, and I am sure that they are involved in the National
05:57Security Council.
05:58And together with whoever is left of the IRGC leadership, they are the ones that are running the country.
06:07Mojtaba, I'm sure, if he's alive, is also contributing.
06:13And I think that, you know, the more there's decapitation, the lower they go, the more disarray the leadership will
06:23experience.
06:25There's decision-making being made, but it doesn't seem like very coordinated decision-making.
06:30I mean, it's a bit of a speculation, I don't know, but it seems like it's not so much that
06:35anyone is running the country as that they are now on autopilot on a contingency plan of what to do
06:43when we're attacked.
06:45It's sort of like launch on warning.
06:47And so that's, I think, where we are.
06:51And that's why I think I'm optimistic that the Iranians are not going to be able to hold out for
06:57very much longer.
06:58I mean, certainly in the face of massive asymmetrical military power.
07:04I mean, certainly in the face of massive military power.
07:05You
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