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00:00What exactly do coaches do anyway at this point?
00:04Let's talk about it in Below the Belt, which is sponsored by Academy Sports and Outdoors and Window Nation.
00:09Before we do that, a name we've talked about a lot, especially recently because he's been mocked here a couple
00:14times, C.J. Allen from Georgia.
00:16So C.J. Allen had gone to the Combine and was like, hey, I'm going to end up testing at
00:22my pro day.
00:23That's what I'm going to do because we did not get testing numbers from him.
00:25He measured in, did all that, but he didn't do any testing.
00:28So you go to his pro day yesterday, and Jordan Reed from ESPN writes this.
00:34Remember, we've referenced this potentially being a problem before.
00:38Georgia linebacker C.J. Allen only participated in positional drills today at his pro day.
00:42He did not do any testing.
00:43He did not participate in testing because of swelling in his knee per sources.
00:48During the season, Allen had a minor procedure for a meniscus tear that he suffered in mid-November.
00:53Scouts were complimentary of his drill work.
00:55But this is something that we had heard coming out of Indy that, like, maybe there's some teams that are
01:01just like, is that knee great?
01:03Like, it didn't sound like it was a thing of like, oh, he's off the board.
01:05You can't draft him.
01:06But if there's already questions about it, is his knee great?
01:08And then your two opportunities to test, you can only get talked into position drills on your pro day because
01:14you're like, yeah, knee's just not good enough.
01:16And specifically, I mean, swelling in the knee months later.
01:20Yeah.
01:21After, I don't know.
01:22That's a little bit concerning to me.
01:24The last two mocks that we have covered, I think, had Gerard McCoy from Tennessee, the injury concern.
01:32Mm-hmm.
01:34Is he totally, should he just be taken off the board because of the medical and the red shirt stuff
01:40that Jerry talked about?
01:41He's not likely to be a red shirt this year.
01:44Like, everybody's talking, like, he's going to play.
01:46He's going to do stuff at his pro day.
01:47But I'm just thinking about, is it red shirt or risks?
01:50Yeah, you don't know how far they're willing to take it to CJ Allen as well.
01:54Are the Blue Star specials, like, not going to be a thing this year?
01:58Because I think that's the, yeah, he said no red shirt.
02:00So, obviously, that was Revel in the past.
02:02That's been Jalen.
02:03But does that extend to the guy coming off of a medical red shirt like McCoy?
02:08The thing to me is McCoy may not be off their draft board.
02:14I would think that for the Cowboys, I'd be really surprised if they did take him at 12.
02:20Because it's just like, there's so many things they're trying to do to just, all right, we're covering bases.
02:26We're going to go get Rashawn Gary.
02:27We're going to go get Jalen Thompson.
02:28We're going to get this stable.
02:30It's nice.
02:30It's things like that.
02:31I can't believe they'd want to walk into the season going, one of our big-time rotational corners is a
02:37guy who's not played football in two years,
02:39and he was 19 years old the last time he played.
02:41Yeah, it's a tough one because, for me, the draft is all about upside, and he certainly has it.
02:48There's certainly an upside and an unknown.
02:50Now, the question is, obviously, what if he's a Michael Gallup situation and he just doesn't trust the knee?
02:56He never trusts it.
02:58You certainly have to plan for that.
03:00That's concerning.
03:01There's no doubt.
03:02There's no doubt it is concerning.
03:03I would argue that I'm not as upset with the Blue Star Specials because we've done the research on it,
03:11and they don't miss in the second round at a higher rate than anybody else.
03:16They're basically what league average is, a little bit above, in terms of second-round hit rate.
03:23And by hitting on how you view a hit.
03:24And look, you can view a hit one of two ways.
03:28It's like 50% or 60% of the team snaps, or a second contract.
03:33I fight with people all the time.
03:35He was awful here at the end.
03:37They needed to move on.
03:38Jalen Smith was a hit to me.
03:40Jalen Smith made a Pro Bowl.
03:41Jalen Smith was like a two- to three-year big-time defender.
03:44He got a second contract.
03:45It's not a...
03:47It's not when you feel great.
03:48Like, if that's a first-round pick, that's not a hit to me.
03:50As a second-round pick, that's a hit.
03:52Cheeto.
03:53Cheeto's on a league.
03:54I mean, Cheeto's a hit.
03:55Now, he wasn't a hit here.
03:56Would you rather have Cheeto's career, which is just kind of steady, solid for his whole time,
04:00or you got Jalen Smith of, like, two years of pretty high level?
04:04And I'm not saying there's an easy answer there.
04:06I think there's an argument for both.
04:07I'd probably lean towards Cheeto.
04:08I would lean towards Cheeto.
04:09Give me the years.
04:11But I'm not...
04:12I'm not, like, no doubt saying it.
04:14Was Randy Gregory a hit?
04:16They wanted the offer in the second deal.
04:19And you're biased.
04:21Was Randy Gregory more of a hit than Jalen?
04:24Easy no?
04:26Randy played really well in 18.
04:29Like, I mean, the sack numbers, I think he had six.
04:31It wasn't, like, a ton.
04:32But, like, in terms of just, like, the way that he played...
04:3418?
04:35Oh, crap.
04:36Are we...
04:36That...
04:37Yeah.
04:37Felt like he was here four years ago.
04:402018 was that.
04:40And then 21 was his last season here.
04:43And so, I mean, he was...
04:44I think that he was good those two seasons.
04:47Like, really good.
04:48I mean, good enough that, like, Denver was willing to pay him a $70 million contract.
04:50But, yeah, I don't...
04:51That's hard to say.
04:52Because, yeah, he didn't get the second contract.
04:54It fell through.
04:55So, I don't know.
04:57That's difficult to say.
04:58All right.
05:00So, we've talked about decisions that are made on the football field by coaches.
05:04And it feels like...
05:06I mean, how many times have we said, like, you know, you're calling plays.
05:09That's a big part of it if you're head coach.
05:10But if you're not a head coach calling plays, like, what is Jason Garrett's job, for instance, when he was
05:14here?
05:14Well, Jason Garrett's job was, all right, you're in charge of the culture.
05:18And you're in charge of, like, probably the biggest thing, in-game decisions.
05:21You're making all those big-time, like, executive presidential decisions of, like, do we hit the button or not?
05:28Like, what do we do here?
05:29You're there to make that decision.
05:31Turns out, a lot of guys don't even make those decisions.
05:34So, Willie Fritz.
05:35This is an article from The Athletic.
05:37And it's called, How One Book Influences the Decisions of Over 100 Coaches in College Football.
05:41And this has apparently started to bleed over into the NFL.
05:44Willie Fritz, who's the head coach at the University of Houston, he wanted to go for it.
05:48But his coaches told him that he was crazy.
05:50And the book would revolutionize college football and validate Fritz's instincts was still a year from coming into his life.
05:56It was the opener of the 2014 season.
05:58He was coaching for Georgia Southern.
06:00They were going up against NC State.
06:02He felt like, with a 20-17 lead, with 3.35 left, and 4th and 1 on the NC State
06:0811, he thought they should have gone for it.
06:11Instead of kicking the field goal.
06:12They said, nope.
06:13Number State kicked the field goal.
06:15So, he said, fine.
06:16He kicked the field goal.
06:17Then he watched NC State march down the field, score a touchdown, beat him.
06:19And he was furious.
06:21A few weeks later, he had the chance to buck conventional wisdom again.
06:25He did not do it.
06:26They lost again in the same fashion.
06:28So, the following spring, Fritz is in his office, and one of his old coaching friends, Rob Ash, says, hey,
06:34I'm working with a startup company called Championship Analytics Incorporated.
06:37Which sounds like a phony company to me, but that's what it's called.
06:40And they were trying to add Fritz as a client.
06:42And in their presentation, they brought up those two specific games and two situations where they said, we have a
06:47book.
06:48We've got the setup for you.
06:49And he was sold based on that.
06:51He's like, all right, I'm in.
06:52And he said he's used it ever since, signed on, never done anything else.
06:56It just leaves the decisions up to that.
06:57So, there are more than 100 FBS teams that CAI counts as clients, plus about a quarter of NFL teams.
07:04They use what they call the book.
07:05So, we've had the chart before for the two-point conversions.
07:08This is the new thing.
07:09The book, which is a literal book.
07:11It's color-coded percentages and recommendations updated every week during the season and customized for each team.
07:17They address all sorts of game situations, whether it's go for two.
07:20Oh, it's customized to each team.
07:21So, like, somebody like Aubrey, for instance, probably gets you a different recommendation on their chart than another one would.
07:28Oh, I like that.
07:29Which is something that a lot of the Ben Baldwin bots don't have.
07:31Yeah, no.
07:32But the biggest thing that they're known for, apparently, is not even the two-point conversion and different things like
07:36that.
07:36It is the fourth down decisions that get the most notice, for better or worse.
07:39And that's where the book has had the most impact.
07:42They say that this past season saw the highest rate of teams going forward on fourth down per TrueMedia, 27
07:47% up from 25%, which had been the highest total since at least 2005.
07:50And they said that when you look down at the fourth down success rate, it's been climbing up.
07:55Like, the amount that they're going for it is not changing the rate of success.
07:58So, they're taking more chances, and it's still basically the same hit rate.
08:01But this does make me wonder, what are you doing then?
08:07Like, I mean, is this laying the foundation for, seriously, like, this whole thing of, we don't want the sports
08:13to become a calculator.
08:15What's the head coach doing?
08:16I think in terms of where's the league heading.
08:18If they're saying that, like, hey, this is hitting so routinely, and then it can be, like, specialized, tailored to
08:26you.
08:27Like, it's a tailored, like, just one-size-fits-all, but then, like, we give you these little tiny things
08:32that tweak it to your team, and we update it every week.
08:34So, we see the trends, and we know different things like that.
08:37Like, I do kind of wonder the whole Grady Fuson, Billy Bean, adapt or die, dinosaur argument, of just at
08:45some point, is there a team out there, a Rams organization,
08:48which did the unthinkable at one point, and basically turned their scouting department over to analytics?
08:53Like, I wonder, at some point, do teams just go, we can leave these coaching decisions up to, like, completely
08:59an algorithm.
09:00We're not going to have a coach make those decisions anymore.
09:02I don't think so.
09:03Too many things just factor in, in terms of weather, how I've converted throughout the game.
09:10If I have an injury, the analytics, I don't think, even this model, are taking all of that into account.
09:18You know, certainly, any live game situation, they're not.
09:22Like, yeah, if it's bad, bad weather, my assumption is bad, bad weather, I'm going for it on fourth down
09:30more.
09:32I disagree.
09:33I mean, the AFC...
09:35Well, hang on.
09:36I'm not talking about punting.
09:37I'm talking about field goals.
09:40Bad, bad weather, I'm not attempting a field goal.
09:43I might, but I'm less likely to than going for it.
09:47I would absolutely punt more in a bad weather game.
09:49Like, if my right tackle is getting worked all game long, and I'm going to call a play that relies
09:56on me to have pass pro on that side, I may change.
10:00No, and I'm 100%.
10:00If we're getting stuffed on three straight third and twos, I might not go for that.
10:06And I'm 100% there.
10:08I don't think it's unreasonable to think that somebody out there could convince one of these 32 teams, though, that,
10:13like, this is the way of the future.
10:15We should...
10:15We'll have a head coach to do whatever...
10:16We've already kind of...
10:19We arrived at that deciding point when analytics was at its hottest.
10:23So this model, the guy who created this, his name's Mike McRoberts.
10:27He's not a football coach.
10:28He's never done it.
10:29He said he just watched it, and he saw what he saw.
10:32He watched football, and he said he saw logical mistakes consistently mathematically.
10:36So what his model addresses is whether to go for it on fourth down, whether to kick a field goal,
10:42whether to kick an extra point or go for two, when to use timeouts.
10:45They've got an entire chart of when timeout usage is acceptable.
10:48Penalty acceptance.
10:49They've got a whole list of where you're out on the field, what penalty it is, where it's at in
10:52the game, and whether you should accept a penalty.
10:54Clock management.
10:55It addresses all these different things.
10:56So basically, a quarter of the teams use this, which means it sounds like a quarter of the teams, at
11:00the very least, if they're not turning it over to it, they're heavily taking it as input for all of
11:05their decisions.
11:06I think the narrative on the league last year was that teams finally took it too far, and they got
11:12burned, not taking enough field goals, not taking enough points.
11:16That's a narrative that I consistently heard, you know, and saw to some degrees week in and week out.
11:22So there it is, the book.
11:24The book.
11:25The book.
11:25Below.