00:00Beijing prefers unification without the use of force.
00:03That's the assessment of a new U.S. intelligence report,
00:06one that goes against the idea that Chinese President Xi Jinping
00:09told the military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027.
00:13The annual threat assessment says China has no fixed timeline for taking Taiwan
00:17and no plans to invade it next year. But it says China's military, the PLA,
00:22will continue to develop its ability to do so. That appears to be in line with previous analysis.
00:27I was placing an emphasis on 2027 and confusing the ability between
00:34of capabilities versus intent. Looking at the way that the PLA might be preparing for a future
00:40conflict versus the desire for them to actually want to do one under Xi Jinping. I'm not surprised
00:47that the threat assessment says that an invasion is likely not to happen.
00:52The report also says China's military was making, quote,
00:55steady but uneven progress towards being able to take Taiwan, a country it claims as its territory.
01:00It adds that three factors, its military readiness, politics inside Taiwan,
01:05and the possibility of U.S. military intervention would determine when it makes a move.
01:09The report did not say if the U.S. would defend Taiwan in an invasion,
01:12but it did warn that a Taiwan Strait conflict would disrupt access to critical technologies,
01:18trigger Chinese cyber attacks, and carry unprecedented economic costs.
01:21It also said remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Takeichi Sinai in November marked a
01:26significant shift for a Japanese leader. Takeichi had said a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose an
01:31existential threat to Japan, which Tokyo says is in line with longstanding Japanese policy.
01:36I think there's a tendency to look at the lens of cross-strait relations from what's happening in
01:43Beijing and Washington, D.C. There is a desire to want to counterbalance against China that isn't
01:48driven primarily by, you know, competition between Washington and Beijing. There are other things
01:54happening that make Tokyo nervous. If the report proves accurate, it could mean another year of peace in
02:01the Taiwan Strait. And while the report may come as a relief after years of escalating tension,
02:06it makes clear that China has no fixed timeline for taking Taiwan, not that it doesn't intend to do so.
02:12Chris Ma and Larry Siano for Taiwan Plus.
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