00:01Samuel Romani is Associate Fellow in Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford.
00:06It does seem like a notable escalation because at the start of the war it seemed as if the Israelis
00:11were targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut or the border areas of Lebanon, but now they're actually hitting the centre
00:17of the city.
00:17So that's a significant topographical shift. Israel is claiming that they're more aggressively targeting Hezbollah's financial operations, and they're also
00:26targeting some of the urban infrastructure that seems to be undergirding their hold on Lebanese military and politics.
00:33So why do you think Israel has chosen to undertake this escalation now?
00:39Well, I think that Israel felt that there was unfinished business, even though there was a ceasefire in Lebanon at
00:44the end of 2024.
00:45There were still periodic border disputes that actually predated the October 7th attacks, and it was inevitable that Hezbollah was
00:53going to be drawn into this once the Israelis and the Americans declared war on Iran.
00:57Hezbollah basically explicitly claimed that they were engaging in what they call defensive confrontation against Israel.
01:04They wanted to divide Israel along multiple fronts, and that's why the Israelis are now maybe even taking that bait
01:10and striking at Lebanon.
01:12So this is a concerted effort by Hezbollah to show their feelings to Iran and to divide Israeli forces, and
01:17Israel seems to be falling right into that trap and also is trying to continue and build on the assassination
01:22of Nasrallah in 2034.
01:25So you talked about multiple fronts there. Do you think this genuinely could be a risky move for Israel?
01:31Well, I mean, I think that there's definitely an escalation that we're seeing.
01:35This is a lot more than sometimes when we've seen border skirmishes.
01:38It's starting to resemble the 2006 Lebanon War when I talked to sources in the region.
01:43You already have 3DF divisions mobilizing. You have strikes going now to the north of the Tani River.
01:47I mean, this is quite a significant movement, and they're actually explicitly talking about a demilitarized buffer zone in the
01:54south,
01:54where you're basically pushing the Hezbollah forces north of that river area.
01:58So 8% of Lebanese territory could eventually become under Israeli control.
02:03They'll dismantle not just military infrastructure, but they'll also resettle people.
02:07And it seems as if the Israelis are extending at least part of their playbook in Gaza,
02:12not as expansive, obviously, across the whole of the country, but enough of it into Lebanon.
02:17And that is a sign of overextension.
02:19Lebanon, for its part, floating the idea of direct talks with Israel.
02:23How realistic is that under these current conditions?
02:28Well, Lebanon wants to basically end the humanitarian suffering that's over there and end the displacement.
02:33They want to make sure that the displaced Lebanese people can eventually return.
02:37And that really depends on, from Israel's point of view, northern Israel's safety being secured.
02:42The Lebanese government wants to make outreaches to Israel just to convince them that they have the Hezbollah under control
02:48themselves.
02:49The Israelis don't need to continue this war, and the people can return.
02:52So that's what I think the Lebanese government wants to do.
02:56Also, the Lebanese government is actually trying to show and frame itself as a potential ally against Hezbollah's destabilizing activities.
03:04And if Hezbollah starts engaging in insurgency tactics or guerrilla tactics, they might want to actually kind of coordinate together
03:12on intelligence, trying to see how to deal with that threat.
03:16But for the most part, it's about ending the war, ending the displacement of people, bringing people back by giving
03:21them security guarantees, and letting Lebanon handle its own affairs and not Israel handle it for them.
03:26And that's important because Lebanon has been facing a prolonged economic crisis for many years now, since the 2020 Beirut
03:33port explosion.
03:34And I think that there's a lot of concern that if this continues, there will be a potential civil war,
03:40the fracturing of the Lebanese state.
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