00:00Does it make sense to you that Google, Microsoft, Amazon, behemoths, very strong companies, are selling debt for 30, 40,
00:09100 years at a time when we can't game out the next five?
00:14Well, I think that that is exemplary of what I'm talking about here. I mean, I don't think, if you
00:24think about what Lisa just described, and I think Google issued 100-year bonds paying 5.8%, I think you
00:32would have to say, you know, optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism,
00:42are in the ascendancy today. And when optimism and credulousness are in the ascendancy, it gets hard to make return
00:56investments that will produce what we call excess returns.
01:00That is to say, returns which are more than commensurate with the risk.
01:04How do you invest in a company that is tied to some of this new technology, given that it does
01:11have such promise, with any certainty?
01:14How do you select the companies that are going to benefit?
01:16Well, you know, first of all, many more companies will be affected than just the AI companies or just the
01:23technology companies.
01:24But, you know, what I said in the December 9th memo, I touched on the wisdom of lending money for
01:37AI companies or tech companies to invest in AI.
01:41And basically, I quoted my colleague, Bob O'Leary, as saying that you probably shouldn't.
01:51You know, if you're going to put money into a company you're supposed to AI, you should probably buy the
01:54stock and get the upside if it ensues,
01:59rather than just lend the money and get a fixed return if they're successful.
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