00:00U.S. President Trump told the Financial Times that he might delay his meeting with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
00:07Planned for the end of the month, he says he expects Beijing to help secure the story of Hormuz as
00:12the global oil crisis deepens.
00:14So what is Trump signaling with this pressure? And why is he asking China to play a role?
00:20He's probably signaling that he can walk away from the talks as well.
00:25And that's trying to demonstrate that he has leverage.
00:27Although the picture is very mixed, because on the one hand, the appeal to the PRC for assistance and the
00:34appeal to NATO for assistance can suggest that the U.S. is finding that handling the Iran conflict is too
00:40much for them to chew at one time.
00:42But on the other, it could also suggest that he's done with this phase and he's ready to move on,
00:48as he sometimes shows himself to be, right?
00:50So he probably figures that it's something he can push China toward because for the short term, at least, before
00:57the whole energy transition moves through the PRC economy, the PRC continues to require oil and gas.
01:05And a lot of that oil and gas comes from the Middle East, not just from Iran.
01:08He probably figures that the securing of the Strait of Hormuz is something that the U.S. would rather see,
01:16or he would rather see others take some responsibility for.
01:20Because it's, remember, it's not just the PRC.
01:23It's also Europe and NATO.
01:25He has also put similar pressure on them.
01:28But this is in line with Trump's sort of idea that the U.S. should not be footing the bill
01:35for security or global security or global economics.
01:38So just because he has started the conflict doesn't mean that he necessarily wants or needs to end it.
01:46How likely is it that China will agree to go along with that request?
01:50I think the proposition is a challenging one for Beijing.
01:53On the one hand, they don't want to seem like they're being forced into taking a position because, you know,
02:01if they accede, then the common read would be that they are forced.
02:05Another, of course, is that they also do, as I said, require oil and gas from the Middle East.
02:11They do face inflationary pressures.
02:14They also do face the issue of trying to spur their economy.
02:17And on top of oil and gas, they're the sort of derivatives from oil and gas, right, fertilizer, which is
02:22also important to keep costs low.
02:24And Beijing has invested quite a lot of energy in the Middle East.
02:28There are very many ways that you can pass this issue.
02:32You can claim that you're helping without doing the minimum.
02:35You can claim you're helping without doing very much.
02:37You can claim that you are trying to talk to the different sides.
02:39You could, of course, try to move forward.
02:42And I said, I guess for Beijing, there's probably also going to be a degree of caution when they look
02:48at Trump, because Trump and his administration's unpredictability, even if they make some claim today, they could change their minds
02:58tomorrow.
02:58To what extent do you think the Iran conflict will affect US-China trade talks moving forward?
03:03There's already been a degree of frustration, apparently, from the PRC side about the US side not having a clear
03:10set of issues they want to focus on.
03:12So on top of all this, the Iran conflict adds a layer of complication.
03:18I think for the PRC, they would probably be familiar enough with the Trump administration's approach by now to sort
03:26of understand that, you know, even if they accede today, Trump could decide differently and walk away tomorrow.
03:32So I guess if you're talking about US-China trade talks, if no, I guess the Iran conflict maybe makes
03:41things a little bit more complicated, but doesn't fundamentally change things.
03:44The fundamental differences between the US and the PRC side over trade, over investment, over technology still remains.
03:53So I think Beijing is probably ready to hold off and walk away if they need to.
03:58I mean, it's possible.
03:59Plus, you know, Beijing may want this summit, but so does the Trump administration.
04:04And I suppose being able to delay or not be affected by delay gives you leverage.
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