00:00Prediction Markets Edge right here on the early line,
00:02Donnie Wright said, and Joe Ranieri.
00:04Joe, you know it, I know it.
00:05The Oscars are this weekend on Sunday,
00:07and you're going to get some good speeches up there,
00:10and you're going to get some guys overrunning.
00:11Wrap it up, B, as we like to say.
00:13Are you excited for the Oscars?
00:17No, no, not at all.
00:20I'm excited to invest in the predictive markets
00:25that have some inefficiencies, shall we say,
00:28and these are the fun kind of markets,
00:32like we've told you all week.
00:34Roll out the red carpet.
00:36Why?
00:36Because on the Calci predictive market here,
00:37the Oscar for Best Picture, the heavy favorite,
00:41one battle after another,
00:43trading at 76% as a chance here.
00:46Sinners, 23%.
00:48They're the darlings right now of the awards circuit right now.
00:52Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Begonia, F1.
00:54And by the way, none of these movies show good enough
00:57to actually get me to a movie theater.
00:59How about you?
01:01Yeah, no, no, absolutely not.
01:04I can't even, honestly, I can't remember the last time
01:06I was at a movie, which is kind of crazy here.
01:10But I do think there's opportunities in these markets
01:14because they are telling.
01:15Don't forget.
01:16Yeah.
01:16We already, there are people who already know
01:19the answer to these markets.
01:20Keep that in mind.
01:21This isn't, you know, this isn't some crazy secret.
01:24So the market is pretty efficient, Donnie.
01:27And what the market is telling you,
01:28it's going to be one of two pictures, right?
01:30It's going to be one battle after another,
01:32or it's going to be Sinners.
01:33That's it.
01:34It's pretty efficient there.
01:35And from that standpoint, I don't know, call me crazy.
01:39I thought Sinners was actually a very good movie.
01:41I couldn't make through even the preview of the other one.
01:45But that likely means the 76% is there for a reason here.
01:50But listen, you're not going to, don't go broke,
01:53but investing in Sinners as maybe the slight upset,
01:57I got no problem with that either at 23 cents.
02:00Yeah, this will tell us a lot
02:01because you see the graph on the screen.
02:03If you slide it all the way back to September 23rd,
02:05one battle after another was still the favorite, Joe,
02:07at 47.1%.
02:08They've been the leader all the way through.
02:10Wouldn't that be wild over the final 48 hours
02:12to see that market crash?
02:14Keep an eye on it.
02:15But usually somebody knows something.
02:16If they held that lead for that long
02:17and it's still significant,
02:19then it might be worth buying into
02:20even if it is limited investment that you have here.
02:23Oscar for best actor here.
02:25Also, Joe, absolutely changing in the last moments here
02:28for the longest time.
02:29Who's Timothee Chalamet?
02:31He's now listed at a 31% chance to win this.
02:33Why?
02:33Michael B. Jordan surging to 60% now,
02:38seemingly out of nowhere in the past couple days, Joe.
02:42Yeah, it's so funny because, again,
02:44understand that these markets are,
02:47A, already we know the answers.
02:50B, they are also heavily influenced by articles,
02:55Donnie, right?
02:56And headlines and those types of things.
02:58Variety just came out
03:00and already has Michael B. Jordan listed
03:02as the number one best actor.
03:05And that kind of lets you know
03:07exactly where we're heading here,
03:09which is why he has surged.
03:11You think, sometimes you think,
03:12hey, best picture, best actor, right?
03:15Well, in this particular case,
03:17I think he's got this one locked up here.
03:22Unfortunately, I'd rather go for the live dog
03:25in the best picture category.
03:27I'd rather have that
03:28than pay retail price for the favorite.
03:31Here, I'd rather pay for the favorite at 60 cents
03:34because I do think where there's smoke,
03:36there's fire here, Donnie.
03:38September 26, Joe,
03:39in this marketplace on Calshi,
03:41Leonardo DiCaprio was trading at a 56% chance
03:43to win this award.
03:44He's now trading at 8% right now.
03:47So a lot of movement here,
03:48but that late finish here
03:49looks like it might be able to get the job done
03:51from Michael B. Jordan.
03:52We'll keep an eye on that.
03:53Oscar for best actress here.
03:55Jesse Buckley, Rose Byrne, Kate Hudson here.
03:58But this looks like a runaway from the beginning.
04:00Jesse Buckley currently trading, Joe,
04:02at 97% as a chance.
04:05If you feel frisky on a Friday and you want to say,
04:07you know what?
04:08There's going to be an upset.
04:09A $100 investment would pay back $2,500
04:11if she doesn't win and you get the rest of the field.
04:14But Joe, as I said, heavy, heavy favor for Ms. Buckley.
04:18And this is price, Donnie.
04:21Like somebody already knows
04:23exactly what the answer is going to be.
04:25And somebody does.
04:27And likely, this is what you're looking at.
04:30At 97 cents, Donnie,
04:32and all the headlines and all the reports,
04:34the TMZs, the varieties of the world, right?
04:37They're all reporting the same thing.
04:40Unbelievable actress and performance.
04:42Likely going to walk away.
04:4497 cents too rich for my taste.
04:47By the way, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue.
04:49Watched it the other night.
04:50Decent little movie right there.
04:51But again, none of these movies, Joe,
04:53enough to get me out of the house
04:54and into a movie theater.
04:55You just wait for them to come around
04:56on your cable device here.
04:57Oscar for Best Director here, Joe.
05:00One battle after another.
05:0291% and he's been that favorite
05:05all the way through.
05:06That's Paul Thomas Anderson
05:07followed by Ryan Coogler with Sinners
05:09and Chloe Zhao for Hamnet here.
05:11But 91% chance here.
05:13Wire to wire.
05:14It looks like a finish for this Paul Thomas Anderson.
05:18Well, again, sometimes, you know,
05:21history teaches us these two things
05:23go hand in hand.
05:24If that is the, if the director
05:26at 90, what, 92, 93 cents is the favorite,
05:31there's a reason why the picture he directed
05:33is also the favorite in the Best Picture market.
05:37See how that works?
05:38So this is another one of these markets
05:40where maybe the director wins it,
05:43but there's an upset with the picture.
05:44But I don't think there's going to be
05:46an upset here in this market here
05:49with the Best Director.
05:50I think what you see is what you get.
05:52By the way, NFL, take notes on this, right?
05:54What Joe is saying, like, hey,
05:56the Best Movie probably had a great director
05:58and they go hand in hand.
05:59The NFL is like, yeah, you went undefeated,
06:01but we're not going to give any credit
06:03to your head coach at this point here.
06:04So Paul Thomas Anderson, 91%
06:06looking to sweep the board here with his boys.
06:08How about the mention market?
06:09We love this one, Joe.
06:11Conan O'Brien is going to host the Oscars.
06:12Who is he going to mention or
06:14what type of products here?
06:16Timothy Chalamet, 91%.
06:17Hollywood, 84%.
06:20Netflix, 79%.
06:21Warner, 78%.
06:22Those are the favorites in the clubhouse right now.
06:24And you could say also,
06:26just Timothy or Chalamet, Joe.
06:28Just need one of them here.
06:29How many says Timmy?
06:32Well, I also like the fact that
06:34any one of the networks, right?
06:36Say Netflix.
06:37Say, I think Hollywood's another one.
06:40Warner is another one.
06:41I think AI or artificial intelligence.
06:44I think all of those markets,
06:46anywhere from 70 to what, 90 cents?
06:49I think we can count on the host
06:51at some point mentioning those words.
06:54Is he going to say Will Smith, Joe?
06:56Because that's trading currently at 21 cents here.
06:58Like, is it too just like easy for him
07:00to say Will Smith at this point?
07:01I don't know if it is,
07:02but it's an interesting one to sort of bring up.
07:04But also, like,
07:05let's just say Conan's reading these markets here.
07:07It's like, hey, look who's in the crowd.
07:08It's Timmy C.
07:09Like, wait a second.
07:11He just referenced Timmy Chalamet,
07:12but he's beating around the bush.
07:14Like, be careful of that.
07:15But I do think Hollywood's an easy one here.
07:18AI, like, oh, you're going to replace everything with AI.
07:20Like, some of these make some sense
07:21in their high price, Joe.
07:22But I was just looking, like, down the list
07:23on some of those here.
07:25Will Smith, ICE, Trump, Epstein here.
07:28How is he not saying Timothee Chalamet?
07:30Like, how is he not saying that?
07:32Like, I don't.
07:35Like, they usually introduce everybody,
07:37like, to the marketplace.
07:38Yeah, it's like, hey, Timothee Chalamet's here.
07:40Ryan Coogler's here.
07:41Congratulations.
07:42And also, you get his first name, Joe,
07:44and his last name.
07:45Doesn't have to be said together at this point.
07:47It's an interesting caveat there.
07:48Prediction marches edge right here on the early line.
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