- 5 days ago
Amid the current crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Nadia Massih is pleased to welcome Dr. Guy Laron, Author of "Oil Wars", Historian and Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. According to Dr Laron, what we are witnessing is not merely a regional confrontation but a textbook demonstration of how energy chokepoints shape global power. Iran’s strategy relies on exploiting one of the world's most critical bottlenecks in the oil trade, a tactic that has repeatedly proven effective throughout modern history.
Control over such chokepoints has long defined the balance of international influence. The ensuing global response clearly reveals how the lessons of earlier energy crises continue to shape policy. The coordinated release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency reflects mechanisms developed following the 1973 oil crisis to stabilize markets and prevent panic buying. Yet this response also exposes deeper structural vulnerabilities, particularly in refining capacity and the absence of strategic reserves for natural gas. This crisis therefore highlights two overlapping realities. First, the physical infrastructure of energy transport: pipelines, refineries, and maritime chokepoints, remains central to global geopolitical competition. Second, disruptions in these systems reverberate far beyond the immediate conflict, reshaping alliances, markets, and the geopolitical landscape. Finally, the broader geopolitical stakes extend well beyond the Middle East region. The outcome of this escalating conflict will influence, even shake up global alliances, the strategic posture of Russia, perceptions of American power, and the future architecture of the global energy supply. In this sense, the strug... Go on reading on our web site.
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Control over such chokepoints has long defined the balance of international influence. The ensuing global response clearly reveals how the lessons of earlier energy crises continue to shape policy. The coordinated release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency reflects mechanisms developed following the 1973 oil crisis to stabilize markets and prevent panic buying. Yet this response also exposes deeper structural vulnerabilities, particularly in refining capacity and the absence of strategic reserves for natural gas. This crisis therefore highlights two overlapping realities. First, the physical infrastructure of energy transport: pipelines, refineries, and maritime chokepoints, remains central to global geopolitical competition. Second, disruptions in these systems reverberate far beyond the immediate conflict, reshaping alliances, markets, and the geopolitical landscape. Finally, the broader geopolitical stakes extend well beyond the Middle East region. The outcome of this escalating conflict will influence, even shake up global alliances, the strategic posture of Russia, perceptions of American power, and the future architecture of the global energy supply. In this sense, the strug... Go on reading on our web site.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
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NewsTranscript
00:06Hello, you are watching Middle East Matters here on France 24, and it is day 13 of the
00:11Israel-U.S.-Iran war. The Supreme Leader Musjab Ahameni has now broken his silence,
00:17warning Gulf states and the Strait of Hormuz that they remain Iranian targets. Now, his
00:23comments today have hardly calmed the oil markets. The price of Brent crude now back
00:29over $100 a barrel. In this program, we'll talk a bit about the turbulence in the oil
00:35markets and the sweeping economic repercussions of this conflict. That with Guy Lahren. He's
00:41the author of Oil Wars, the struggle for control that shaped the modern Middle East. We'll talk
00:47to him in just a moment. But first, our report on the Iranian strikes on the Strait of Hormuz
00:53and on oil tankers.
00:56These dramatic images show an oil tanker engulfed in flames, one of two vessels targeted in the
01:03port of Basra. It's just one of a spate of attacks from Iran on commercial ships, as Tehran aims to
01:09disrupt the global economy in the hopes of gaining the upper hand in the conflict. The key shipping
01:15lane, the Strait of Hormuz, has been a major flashpoint. The U.S. claims to have struck around
01:2030 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the waterway.
01:24We're going to look very strongly at the Strait. The Strait are in great shape. We've knocked out
01:29all of their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many. I think we're in very good shape.
01:36But for now, the Strait appears far from secure. On Wednesday, three vessels were hit in the
01:42waterway, including a Thai cargo ship. Projectiles caused a fire and damaged the engine room of the
01:48Mayari Nari. Around a fifth of the global crude oil supply passes through the Strait, and the
01:55disturbance has caused oil prices to spike, with Brent crude oil, the international standard, topping
02:01$100 a barrel on Thursday. The International Energy Agency has agreed to release a record
02:07400 million barrels of oil to help rein in prices, with the U.S. contributing the majority.
02:13President Trump authorised the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from
02:20the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days
02:27to deliver based on planned discharge rates.
02:31Iran's Revolutionary Guard have warned that any ships wanting to pass through the Strait
02:36of Hormuz will need their authorisation. This Thursday, Iran said that Indian vessels would
02:41be allowed to travel through the waterway.
02:45Ellen Gainsford with that report. And as I say, Guy Lahren is with me. He's the author
02:50of Oil Wars. He joins us from Tel Aviv. Hello to you, and thanks for speaking to us.
02:57Hello, Nadia.
02:58Can I, first of all, get your reaction then to these comments by Moshtaba Khomeini today, albeit
03:05comments read by somebody else, that Iran will keep using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage attacks
03:13will continue. And none of that today. Obviously, good news for the oil markets.
03:18Right. So, of course, they will, because that proved out to be a very successful method. Basically,
03:26what Iran is doing right now is utilising control over a chalk point in the global oil trade. And
03:35that's something that has been tried before and worked for many countries. This is what defines
03:44international power, global power throughout the modern history. So, another thing to talk about is
03:51that many media outlets mention that 400 million barrels of oil will be released by the member
04:00states of the International Energy Agency. And they point out that this is a temporary measure. It
04:09buys time for Trump to decide what he wants to do. But something that is undercover is the fact that
04:15this release would be mainly crude. But what the consumer needs is distilled products of oil. And
04:23the global supply of global refinery capacity was tight as it is. Now, many of the big refineries in
04:31the Gulf are out of reach or were damaged by Iranian attacks. So, despite this release,
04:39we might find ourselves lacking enough diesel or jet fuel, which explains why oil prices didn't go down
04:47as much as we would expect. Well, I was going to ask you about that, that announcement yesterday you
04:51were talking about from the International Energy Agency here in Paris, 400 million barrels of oil to
04:57be released from the reserves of 32 countries. It's the largest ever release of its kind. As you say,
05:03though, it hasn't calmed the oil markets much. What other options then do countries,
05:11members of the IEA or not, now have to try and bring the price down?
05:16Well, the thing is, what you're seeing in action are lessons from what happened in the 1970s.
05:23So, the International Energy Agency was created in the mid-1970s after the 1973 crisis. So, that's
05:34measure number one that is already working. Instead of outbeating each other for oil, the consumer
05:40countries sit together and think what they can do. And one of the things they can do is release oil
05:46to
05:46the market to calm down demand and prevent panic buying, which was one of the things that really
05:53pushed oil prices back in the oil crisis of the 1970s. Another thing, another lesson from past crisis
06:01is the fact that we have pipelines that bypass the Straits of Hormuz. So, Saudi has one and the United
06:09Arab Emirates has one. And they were not hit. And it's hard to hit them, by the way, because they're
06:16underground, they're covered. So, they will allow these two countries to export a little bit less than
06:26half of what passes through the Straits of Hormuz. So, that's good news for the oil market. But again,
06:32another undercover topic is gas, because we don't have strategic gas reserves. We don't have a similar
06:44architecture around natural or liquefied gas. And there's no, you know, there's no reserves to
06:53release to the market. And you can't move even one molecule of Qatari gas through the Straits of
07:01Hormuz right now. So, 20% are already gone. And on that particular kind of fuel, we don't have any
07:09measure. So, in terms of the lessons that should be learned from this conflict when it does wrap up,
07:16not that that seems that it's happening anytime soon, should one of the lessons be that we need
07:21another way of getting that gas out of Qatar or another way, as you say, the options are pretty
07:29limited for the moment. So, lessons that countries learn from crisis like this is one, of course,
07:37to try and bypass chalk points. So, that happened, by the way, with the Suez Canal. We have a pipeline
07:44that bypasses the Suez Canal. It runs through Egypt. Another thing is empowering different energy
07:54technologies. So, for example, nuclear technology and renewables that will get a push in the coming
08:04decade. And maybe we need a better way to manage the gas market. So, that I would assume would be
08:14another lesson that countries would take from this crisis. Okay. Well, the war, as I say, very much
08:19still going on. And let's talk a little bit, if we can, about the American and the Israeli strategy.
08:26The island of Haag, an Iranian island, that is where about 90% of the Iranian oil is exported from.
08:38Arguably, then, it is Iran's sort of most sensitive economic target or right up there.
08:43It hasn't been hit, though, has it, by either Israel or the United States? Why do you think that is?
08:50Well, first of all, Israel doesn't hit what the U.S. forbids Israel from hitting. So,
08:58Israel hit a few tankers about two days ago, big tanks of oil, and the U.S. said it was
09:08not okay. So,
09:09Israel stopped. I think the reason that energy infrastructure in Iran isn't being hit is because
09:18Trump is still thinking about a deal or is thinking about a way to capture some of it.
09:25The Harag Island would be a clear example of if there'll be an American takeover of this island.
09:33Trump will be able to enforce his terms on Iran and get a deal with Iran the same way he
09:41got a deal with
09:42Venezuela by controlling the chalk point through which that specific country exports its oil.
09:50You know, I know, presumably Donald Trump now knows that Iran and Venezuela are very different
09:56countries. Iran is an ideological regime. There is absolutely no sign that it's about to be
10:02brought down despite these extensive strikes. So, is it really realistic that there would be some kind
10:10of deal on the oil on the island of Harag? Well, that's the million-dollar question,
10:19because it's bigger than control of the island of Harag. If the U.S. cannot be militarily
10:25dominant in the Persian Gulf, and if it cannot control the Straits of Hormuz, is it still a global
10:32superpower? I mean, Trump has to decide whether to cut his losses or to double down, because if this
10:42ends with a humiliating climb down, some kind of a ceasefire in which he will declare that he won,
10:49but the entire world would know that the United States has lost, then he will be remembered as a kind
10:57of an American guimole. And this crisis would be remembered as kind of an American version of the
11:051956 of Suits Crisis. You know, the same way that Suits Crisis was the lion's last roar or one of
11:13the
11:13last acts of the British Empire in the Middle East, this might be the eagle's last soar.
11:20And indeed, Donald Trump has sort of suggested, hasn't he, that he wants this conflict to wrap
11:25up relatively soon? I wonder though, given that you're in Tel Aviv, whether you think the Israeli
11:31government shares that point of view? Israel will do eventually what Trump tells it to do.
11:39I think Trump hasn't decided whether he wants to continue this war and escalate it or to cut his
11:47losses. He seems to be preparing both options. He's talking about the fact that the United States
11:53has already won, but there's another aircraft carrier on its way to the Gulf. So the option
12:00of escalation still remains. We don't have lots of time left. And I wanted to ask you about Russia.
12:07And before I ask you about that, let's listen to a soundbite from Antonio Costa,
12:12who's the EU Council President on this topic. Take a listen.
12:17So far, there is only one winner in this war, Russia. It steadily undermines Ukraine's position
12:28by flouting international law. It gains new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices
12:37rise. It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent
12:45to support Ukraine. And it benefits from the reduced attention to the Ukrainian front as the conflict
12:54in the Middle East take center stage. All right, Guy Lahren, we have about a minute or so left.
13:02Just reacting to that, the Kremlin spokesperson today, Dmitry Peskov, saying, look, cooperation
13:07between the US and Russia could be a very important factor in helping to stabilize the oil market. So
13:14is Costa right that really, when it comes to oil, the big winner here potentially is Russia?
13:20He's absolutely right. And moreover, one of the main arguments in my forthcoming book
13:27is that the Soviet Union, and Putin is a student of Soviet foreign policy, and Russia has always done
13:36this. They sought to create instability in the Middle East around chalk points like the Suez Canal. They sought to
13:44empower and arm guerrilla movements that made strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East
13:53because the outcome was always the same. Each time that the Middle East wasn't able to supply Europe with
13:59the energy it needed, it turned to the Soviet Union. This is how we got the pipelines from Siberia
14:09and from all over Russia going into the heart of the European continent. Each crisis in the Middle East,
14:141956, 1967, 1973, renewed European interest in importing energy from Russia. So Putin is playing the same
14:25game right now by supporting with, by sharing intelligence with Iran and helping it hit American
14:32Raiders in the Persian Gulf. So Putin is basically repeating the Soviet playbook. And, you know, he is so far
14:44a big winner in the sense that the price for Russian crude has gone up from 45 a few weeks
14:50ago to 75.
14:52That's a big rule for him.
14:55Yeah, there's lots more I'd like to ask you about this, but unfortunately, we are out of time. I want
14:58to thank you very much indeed.
14:59Guy Lahren, the author of Oil Wars, talking to us there from Tel Aviv.
15:07Well, this has been Middle East Matters, and you are watching France 24.
15:11But we're in the middle.
15:12You're literally in the middle.
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